March 22, 1998

Ambassador Dennis Ross
US State Department

Dear Ambassador Ross,

We in IPCRI would like to encourage you to continue with your efforts towards restarting the stalled Middle East peace process. We encourage you to follow through along the same path started by British Foreign Minister Robin Cook. The leaders in Israel are not usually forced to deal with the will of the international community because all too often, leaders in the international community are too fearful that pressure on the Israeli government may cause a reverse reaction than the one desired. This is the explanation usually given by the U.S. Administration each time the US is requested to pressure Israel. It is most unfortunate that the U.S. is almost always convinced that pressuring Israel would be counter-productive. That is not our assessment (at least not in the long run).

It is our firm belief that the present government of Israeli is incapable of making the necessary concessions to secure any kind of peace treaty that will have a chance of lasting. We are not against the Prime Minister of Israel, yet we believe that the present coalition in Israel encourages the Prime Minister to advocate positions that are uncompromising. Therefore, our advice to you and to President Clinton and Secretary Albright is to increase the pressure on Israel. Do not be afraid of Israel hardening its position because it is already working against the peace process.

You know well that the Israeli public is quite divided on the peace issue, however the majority of Israelis still support the Oslo process. If the international community is clear in voicing the opinion that the current Israeli government's policies are preventing peace, more Israelis will support that line (on the condition that the international community is equally critical of the negative policies of the PA).

The government of Israel made very clear commitments with regard to territorial compromise when it signed the Oslo II agreement which was also ratified by the current Likud government within the Hebron agreement. There is only one issue that is currently relevant and worthy of attention, that is, the further redeployments. It should be made clear to the government of Israel that the correct reading of the Oslo agreement is redeployment to "specific military locations" and not to "security zones" as defined by Israel. The official Hebrew translation of the agreement (translated by the Israeli Foreign Ministry) is "specific military locations". There can be no real argument about the language of the text that Israel agreed to and signed. Both sides must be pressured to honor the commitments that they have already made before the peace process can enter into the stage of confronting the final status issues.

In our estimation, any FRD of 15% and above will lead to the collapse of the Israeli government. Therefore, intelligent and delicate pressure must be applied on the "weak points" of the Israeli government with respect to the peace process. We would suggest, therefore, targeting Minister of Defense Mordechai, Minister of Public Security Kahalani and other MK's in his party), Minister of Trade and Industry Sharansky, Minister of Science Michael Eitan, and Minister of Labour Eli Yishai and M.K. Aryeh Der'i. These are the people within the Israeli government who have spoken about the need to continue with the peace process and to implement the further redeployments. It should be understood, however, that the present government of Israel will never implement a substantial redeployment, and therefore, the peace process has no real hope of moving forward until there is political change in Israel. (There is also great need for political change in the PA, however that will be the subject of another letter).

The National Religious Party together with several of the more extreme Ministers from the Likud will never support a substantial redeployment. If Mr. Netanyahu is forced to face the will of the international community led by the United States to truly honor its commitments, the Prime Minister will fall under great internal pressure from two sides (those who support a significant FRD and those who are against it) that might bring about early elections in Israel or the creation of a different Israeli government including the Labour Party (although this is not very likely). This is the only hope that the deadlock will be broken at any time in the near future.

U.S. and European political behind the scenes pressure directed both at the Prime Minister, and more discretely at the Ministers mentioned above, is most important and urgent. This pressure should be coupled with clear messages of U.S. support both for the security of Israel and for linking that security with the advancement of peace. Any chances of creating a concerted joint effort with the Europeans should also be pursued and implemented.

The time has come for the Government of Israel to either implement the agreements signed or to allow the Israeli public to decide on what course to take. The United States is a full partner to the peace process, and while it is the Government of Israel that must make the decisions, the United States government must play as active a role as possible pushing the sides to move forward. The Government of Israel due to its political constellation is severely limited in its ability to see beyond tomorrow. The U.S. must help the leaders of Israel to see that the peace process must progress and that Israel's security will only be assured through real and comprehensive peace, first with the Palestinians and then with the other regional neighbors.

In conclusion, we applaud your efforts and encourage you to continue.

Yours sincerely,

Gershon Baskin, Ph.D. And Zakaria al Qaq, Ph.D. Directors

cc: Secretary Albright, Ambassador Indyk, Foreign Minister Cook

Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information
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