Additional Statistics - Ehud Barak was elected by a majority of both Jewish and Arab voters. Barak got 51.5% of the Jewish vote and 95% of the Arab vote. Voter participation is currently 74% and is expected to reach 78 or 79% when votes of soldiers and diplomats are counted. Arab voter participation was only 70% in this election, as opposed to 77% in the previous elections, despite strenuous efforts by Arab parties to get the vote out. Settlers voted overwhelmingly for Benjamin Nethanyahu as expected, but Barak received more votes in the settlements then Shimon Peres did in 1996. In development towns, Barak got 42% of the vote, as opposed to 38% for Peres in 1996.

The above results will not be final until votes of soldiers and diplomats are counted. These could give either Meretz,   the Israel Union party an additional mandate for example, or they could give Pnina Rosenblum the additional 3,000 votes needed to get her party into the Knesseth. The gains would probably come at the expense of Amir Peretz's party and could upset any of the coalition calculations.

Coalition blues - Assuming that the above results are final, parties that might join a 'left-secular' block got a total of 67 seats. However, 10 of these seats belong to Arab parties. Despite promises of equality, it is unlikely that Barak would make these parties partners in a coalition, since no Prime Minister has ever done so. This leaves 57 possible coalition supporters, not enough to form a stable coaltion. Possible partners:

Likud - Without Benjamin Nethanyahu at its head, the Likud and its 19 seats, could be a potential partner in a national unity government. Benjamin Nethanyahu announced immediately after the elections that he intends to resign - but he has not resigned yet. A national unity government of this composition is not likely to be enthusiastic in implementing the peace process, to say the least. It is also unlikely that the pro-peace Meretz party would find a place in such a coalition.

Shas - Ultraorthodox Shas party leader Arie Deri, convicted of bribery and facing a further trial for misuse of public funds, poses a formidable obstacle to coalition negotiations. Both Ehud Barak and Meretz party leader Yossi Sarid ruled out negotiations with Shas as long as Deri remained head of the party. Deri has now resigned from the Knesset and party leadership, but remains head of the Shas movement. He will obviously use that position to   rule the party. If Shas (17 votes) joins the coalition, then Shinui (6) votes would not .

Agudath Yisrael (United Torah Judaism) - This ultraorthodox party would give its 5 votes to any coalition if the price is right. They would demand that Barak withdraw his plan to curtail abuses of draft exemptions by Yeshiva students. If Adudath Yisrael joins, Shinui would not.

NRP (Mafdal) - The once ultra-right religious Zionist party has not ruled out participation in a One-Israel party government. Their purpose would be to prevent withdrawal from the occupied territories and represent the settlers lobby, as well as Zionist religious interests. Provided all other parties stay in the coaltion, the NRP, with 5 mandates, would give the government a majority of three.

Other possibilites - If no agreement can be found on coaltion partners most promissing strategy may be to form a coalition that includes the NRP and several Likud party members who would be detached from the Likud by offering them ministerial posts. Possible candidates include Michael Eitan and Meir Shitrit, both moderates on foreign policy and supporters of the peace process.

The Road Ahead

Changing the government will not solve all problems. Barak ran as a military hero and not as a man of peace, and his constituency will expect him to act accordingly. By all indications, he will form a national unity government, including the Likud, that will not be in a hurry to make overtures for peace. There are other easons to object to a national unity government, since it removes a source of checks and balances in the Israeli government. That is why national unity governments have usually been home to the worst scandals in Israeli politics.

However, politics is the art of the possible, and within the limits of the possible, Barak has done an impressive job of rebuilding a viable movement to challenge the extreme right. It is not the peace movement by any means. It is a coalition that is trying to recapture Israeli society from the extreme right and religious fanatics, to give us back the country that was stolen from us.  But changing the government will open a pathway of hope for peace. PEACE and PeaceWatch, and all those working for peace education and dialog will still have work to do.

Thanks to all those who have made this moment - that we have been waiting for for three terrible and bitter years - come true. Thanks to Eric Lee who began Bibiwatch - and to everyone else.

Mazal Tov and Mabruk. Please join us at PEACE and help build a better future for the Middle East. We must make sure now that Barak does not disappoint our hopes.

Write to Ami or Ameen for details.

Contact Info   ash74@geocities.com

Ami Isseroff
Rehovot

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PeaceWatch has been getting over 200 visitors a day owing to the Israeli elections. But peace will not be made by politicians or by elections. It will take hard work all year 'round to make peace between people. So we hope you will take the time to read about the PEACE Mid-East Dialog Group and about other dialog and peace efforts in the Middle East. We hope you will visit our home site, and  join us and come back to us after the elections - no matter how you vote or who wins. Look around this site - it is more than just polls and politics.

Shalom/Salamat

New - The PEACE Deir Yassin Memorial Web site - history of a massacre that some people try to deny - has been updated. The update includes an English translation of the original Red Cross report available for the first time, and reflections on how the issue - and the Web site have been exploited and misunderstood by both sides.