PeaceWatch

Produced by the PEACE Middle East Dialog Group

BibiWatching - The National Pastime

Ami Isseroff

In his picturesque manner, Weizman said that he heard that the redeployment was coming, redeployment was just ahead, redeployment was to the right, redeployment was to the left and redeployment was just behind, but there was no redeployment. Later in the week, Weizman leaked the information that Netanyahu had sent him to reassure Yasser Arafat and President Mubarak that Israel was sincere about the peace process and that a decision on redeployment was imminent - and he went - only to find that his assurances had no actual backing. Then Netanyahu asked Weizman to go to Mubarak again and ensure a good welcome, and this time Weizman refused.

What do the people think? Two thirds of Israelis polled agree that the President did the right thing, and that elections should be held. And for the first time in many months, polls indicate that if elections were held today, Ehud Barak might win and put Bibi out of office.

"National” and “Sovereign” are the two favorite words of the Israeli right. Who could be more “National” or “Sovereign” than the President? BibiWatching was born here two years ago as a one man effort by Eric Lee. At that time, everyone still wanted to give the newly elected PM a chance. Since that time, Bibi first convinced every foreign leader (perhaps excepting the government of Micronesia) that he cannot be trusted. Then he convinced both the Israeli right - including members of his own cabinet - and the Israeli left - that he has a very eccentric concept of the word ‘truth.’ Now he has convinced the President of Israel too. BibiWatching has become an Israeli national pastime.

Ezer Weizman has a unpolished and spontaneous Trumanesque way of expressing himself that sometimes angers people across the political spectrum. But he has his finger on the pulse of the people, and he says the people aren’t happy with Bibi and his right-wing government. And Weizman is a tough fighter - the wrong man to have fighting against you.

Even if there are new elections, there is a good chance Bibi will win. Israeli voting habits are tied strongly to ethnic and class membership. One columnist wrote in Ha’aretz that results of elections could be predicted from DNA analysis. Rabin, an exceptional personality who could unite the country around him, barely won against Yitzhak Shamir, a lackluster dogmatic politician. Ehud Barak is not one who can ignite the enthusiasm of the public.

But if you have lived in Israel long enough, you can remember when it seemed that Labor would be in power forever, based on similar “DNA determined’ voting patterns. Then one day, the patterns shifted. The Likud was brought to power in 1977, not to build ‘Greater Israel’ but because people in development towns like Netivot and Beth Shean believed Menachem Begin when promised a new day for the forgotten other Israel. But these are the people hurt most by Netanyahu’s economic policies. Unemployment rates are highest in those very development towns, because resources needed for economic development were shifted to subsidizing settlement expansion in the West Bank. This is what Yitzhak Rabin meant when he talked about need to shift national priorities.

Likud apologists say that that the unemployment is structural, that it is due to removal of subsidies and tariffs that protected domestic industries. This is the usual litany of conservative economists during a recession - ‘structural unemployment,’ ‘seasonal displacement,.’ ‘adjustment.’ But all the hand waving cannot hide the simple facts. Before 1992 there was high unemployment and stagnation. By 1996, before Labor was voted out of office, the economy was booming. And now again, we have “structural unemployment.’ Instead of subsidizing start-up industries and retraining in Dimona and Ofakim and Beit Shean, the government is pouring money into settlements in the West Bank, into subsidized housing and roads that we will one day have to return, and reserve duty hours for soldiers to guard the settlements. Instead of paying for continued education of discharged soldiers, the government is subsidizing Yeshiva students in ever larger number and at ever higher rates - because Yeshiva students, and the religious parties that represent them, will vote for Bibi.

There will be no elections soon. The ‘Third Way’ party and the new immigrants party of Nathan Sharansky know that in new elections they will probably lose ground They squawk about integrity in government, concern for the poor and the peace process, but they are pretty well glued to their seats. The religious parties never had it so good, as they vie with each other for the biggest share of the taxpayer’s shekel. The National Religious Party - most representative of ‘Greater Israel,’ understands that new elections can only hasten the end of the settlement era. The disgruntled Likud right wing understands that Benjamin Begin or other right-wing replacements for Netanyahu would not stand a chance of winning. So the coalition will hold together.

PM Netanyahu has one indispensable quality for a politician - luck. And his luck held out this week. Toward the end of the week he got a gift from the PNA - an ugly confrontation in Gaza in which PNA “police” faced down the IDF, closing off roads to Israeli settlements because Israel would not allow a procession of PNA officials to pass through an Israeli road. Israeli right-wing leaders were quick to claim that this was exactly what would happen if Israel carried out the redeployment. Meanwhile, President Weizman’s call for elections was forgotten.

Bibi almost got another gift. Yasser Arafat traveled to Cairo, trying to convince President Mubarak and King Hussein to convene an Arab summit in order to take harsh measures against Israel. That would undoubtedly have provided Bibi with the excuse he needs to back out of the peace process. Cooler heads prevailed, however, and the decision has been postponed until such time as it will appear that the U.S. initiative has definitely failed.

It is one thing to get a gift, another to know how to use it. Labor party ‘strategists’ did virtually nothing with the gift they got from PM Weizman, except debating whether they should call Bibi a liar or just say he is untrustworthy.

But the President’s statement - and the support it got - are symptomatic of a shift that is slowly taking place in Israeli political attitudes. Perhaps people are beginning to understand the price of our miserable little ‘empire.’ Maybe they are making the connection between new housing in Elon Moreh and no work in Netivot. Maybe other people realize the implications for Israel if the peace process dies because we have failed to live up to signed treaties.

Maybe even Ehud Barak will be able to win the next elections. Maybe not, but I can dream can’t I?

Ami Isseroff

Rechovot