PeaceWatch
Vol. 1 #14 Sept 19, 1998

Produced by the PEACE Middle East Dialog Group

Please sign our Declaration Regarding a Peace Settlement

After the Holidays
Ami Isseroff

Note - Thanks to everyone who came to the rally last Saturday and helped sign people up for the Palestinian/Israeli peace declaration sponsored by PEACE and other organizations. If you are still debating whether to sign, www.ariga.com/peacewatch/decstory.htm may help you decide.

The Jewish High Holidays are a time of personal reckoning and long vacations. They are also a time when not very much happens in Israel. "After the Holidays"  is a polite Hebrew expression sometimes translated as "never."

Denis Ross came and saw and spoke, but nothing visible happened in the matter of the Israeli redeployment, and there was no visible progress toward a final settlement either. Nobody is even thinking about that. The issues have been obscured by clever maneuvering and misinformation on both sides. The Israelis created a mythical problem and then started believing it was true. They insisted that there was some magic in the 10% redeployment figure. One rock more would destroy the security of Israel entirely. Then they allowed that they could give back 13%, provided that the extra 3% could not be used by the Palestinians for any purpose except as a nature preserve. Mr Netanyahu's concern for the ecology is touching, but the reasons for this nature preserve are unfathomable.

For their part, the PNA has shown a signal reluctance to live up to its undertakings regarding changes in the Palestinian Covenant and extradition. The main problem seems to be that the agreements do not require extraditon of settlers who commit murder for trial in Palestinian courts. If they thought these clauses are unjust or unreasonable, perhaps the Palestinians should not have signed them in the original Oslo II accords.

There might be a redeployment 'after the holidays.' As noted, 'after the holidays' often means never! From many sources we hear that both sides have agreed to a redeployment, but they are waiting for an opportune time to do it. There is another possibility. Namely that both sides have looked ahead to the final settlement. That they have both understood that, given their positions, there cannot be a final settlement. Bibi will not give more than 40 or 50% of the West Bank, and limited sovereignty for Palestine, and even that solution is drawing fire from Israeli extremists. The Palestinians can accept no less than a state in most of the West Bank, and even that solution would draw fire from their extremists. In that case, a redeployment might be bad for both sides. For Israel it would be bad, because Israel would have given more land and gotten nothing except more difficult borders.

For the PNA it might also be bad. There is one way of thinking that says '10% is better than nothing.' There is another school that says it is better to block the redeployment and make the Israeli government fall. But those are not the only issues. If there is no redeployment, then in May 1999, the Palestinians can claim that the negotiations have failed completely, declare a state, and expect the support of the European countries (Britain and France have already guaranteed it) and perhaps the U.S. If there is a redeployment, and if the U.S., and the world, are satisfied, and if Bibi can get away with a minuscule third redeployment, then the Palestinians do not have a good case for declaring a state in May 1999. Moreover, if the PNA stands firm and refuses the 10% or 13%, they win the respect of the Palestinian people but no land. If they accept the land, they lose the respect of the Palestinian people for giving in to Netanyahu.

Of course these thoughts, on both sides, are just delusions on the way to disaster. There is no solution that can work other than a two state solution, giving the Palestinians nearly all the land in the West Bank. Declaration of a Palestinian state, depending on what else the PNA does, could lead to war. They should have no illusions as to the ultimate military outcome of such a war. We Israelis should have no illusions however, that such a war will be easy, and we can also imagine that the ultimate diplomatic outcome of such a war will not be terribly favorable. In the best case, Israel will be made to give up after the war, with much worse grace, what we refused to give up before it, perhaps in return for nothing at all. In the worst case, we find oursleves in the same stalemate we are now.

Ami Isseroff
Rehovot

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