Israelis and Palestinians View the Election
July 1999
Results of two polls assessing the mood of the Palestinian and Israeli people in Mid-July, the CPRS and Steinmetz Center polls, were released this week.
Israelis have became slightly less enamored of the Oslo accords, and of the prospects for peace, since last March. Only about 72% define themselves as supporters of the peace process as opposed to 76-77% in previous months. Less than half, as in previous months believe there will be peace with Arabs. Only about 40% support the Oslo process, a small and steady decline over they last few months. Paradoxically, but nearly 45% believe the accords will actually bring peace with the Palestinians. Support for peace with Syria is slowly growing. About 46% now believe in the possibility of peace with Syria as opposed to 36% in March.
About 75% of the Palestinians support the peace process according to the CPRS polls, up from 70% in the previous survey. This question is asked in a different format from the Israeli survey, so the similar numbers are not comparable. The poll sample is large enough so that the difference from previous values is significant. Likewise, only 39% support violence against Israelis, as opposed to 45% in the previous survey, and about 29% believe the Barak government is serious about peace, up from 23% in the previous month.
The Israeli Steinmetz Center poll tried to get some measure of where Israelis think Barak stands on the issues, using a numeric scale of 1= Left and 5 = Right). Most Israelis placed Barak (2.3) slightly to the right of both Shimon Peres (1.7) and Yitzhak Rabin (2.0); Arik Sharon and former PM Nethanyahu both scored about 4.0. However, only about 42% of Israelis believed in July that there were real differences in policy between former PM Nethanyahu and Ehud Barak.
The most surprising results of the Palestinian CPRS poll, consistent with previous results by CPRS and JMCC and almost never discussed are
1. Palestinians rate the PNA very poorly on democracy and human rights (only 31% said it was Good or Very Good), and they rate Israel best (69.8%), ahead of the U.S.(60%) and France (50.5%). This strange result deserves some further research.
2. The CPRS poll shows that support for the peace process and moderate policies is least among the educated and affluent, and greatest among the illiterate and poor. Support for violence is high among holders of BA degrees (52%), and students (46%) and low among those with elementary education (34%), workers (31%) and the retired (17%). Trust in the intentions of the Barak government increases among the illiterates (39%), farmers (41%), and the retired (39%). It decreases among holders of BA degrees (12%), students (15%), and specialists (9%). Surprisingly, Hamas supporters as whole have more faith in Barak (25%) than University graduates as a group (12%)!
Results of the survey as given below. Further details are at the Steinmetz Center and CPRS Web sites.
Permanent Questions:
These are repeat questions in the Steimetz poll that we have been tracking. The numbers given are the sum of Two highest positive categories (for example, "Believe" and Strongly Believe").
1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and the Arabs? July 48.6% June 49.3% May 53.8% March 42.7%
2. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process between Israel and the Arabs? July 72.1% June 77.5% May 78.6% March 77.1%
3. What is your opinion of the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel and the PLO (Declaration of Principles)? July 40.3 June 41.7 May 43.2 March 48.9
4. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between
Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the
coming years?
July 44.7 June 38.7 May 44.5%
March 43.4%
Survey Data - July
Steinmetz Poll of Israelis
The Peace Index Project is
conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, headed
by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar Hermann and executed by Teleseker. For the July
28, 1999 survey, 501 people were interviewed by telephone. They comprised a representative
sampling of the adult Jewish population (including West Bank and the kibbutzim).
Margin of
error is about 4.5%.
THE PEACE INDEX - JULY 1999
1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and the Arabs?
Certain there will be peace 14.2% Think there will be peace 34.4%
In the middle 20.1% Think there will not be peace 11.8%
Certain there will not be peace 15.0% Don't know/no opinion 4.4%
2. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of
the peace process between Israel and the Arabs?
Greatly opposed 5.3% Somewhat opposed 6.6%
In the middle 14.7% Somewhat supportive 32.5%
Greatly supportive 39.6% Don't know/no opinion 1.3 %
3. What is your opinion on the agreement that was signed in Oslo
between Israel and the PLO (Agreement of Principles)?
Heavily in favor 16.1% Somewhat in favor 24.2% In the middle 28.3%
Somewhat opposed 10.6% Heavily opposed 12.5%
Don't know/no opinion 8.3%
4. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between
Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the
Palestinians in the coming years?
Greatly believe 15.6% Somewhat believe 29.1%
In the middle 20.0% Somewhat don't believe 12.9%
Certainly don't believe 17.0% Don't know/no opinion 5.4 %
5. What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty
between Israel and Syria in exchange for full withdrawal from the
Golan Heights?
Greatly in favor 12.2% Somewhat in favor 15.5% In the middle 19.3%
Some what opposed 16.5% Greatly opposed 33.6%
Don't know/have no opinion 3.0%
6. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and Syria?
Certain there will be peace 9.6%
Think there will be peace 36.3% In the middle 23.6%
Think there will not be peace 16.3%
Certain there will not be peace 9.7%
Don't know/have no opinion 4.5%
7. In your best estimation, what issue is more important to the Barak
Government at this stage: peace negotiations, internal social
matters, both to the same extent, or neither?
Negotiations 19.9% Internal social 28.4% Both same 44.4%
Neither 4.2% Don't know 3.1%
8. And what issue do you think should be more important to the Barak
Government at this stage: peace negotiations, internal social
matters, both to the same extent, or neither?
Negotiations 18.3% Internal social 37.8% Both same 36.1%
Neither 4.0% Don't know 3.8%
9. If '1' is a leader who is very Left in his views of matters of foreign relations and
security and 5 is a leader who is very Right in his views of matters of foreign relations
and security, how would you place Sharon, Rabin, Peres, Netanyahu and Barak(DK= Don't
know, average is net the don't knows)
Sharon 1-2.5% 2-1.9% 3-21.9% 4-29.4% 5-34.8% DK-9.6% Average 4.0
Rabin 1-37.6% 2-27.4% 3-19.3% 4-2.9% 5-3.8% DK-9.0% Average 2.0
Peres 1-53.5% 2-26.9% 3-8.2% 4-2.9% 5-2.4% DK-6.1% Average 1.7
Netanyahu 1-2.4% 2-2.3% 3-17.9% 4-28.4% 5-40.8% DK-8.3% Avg. 4.1
Barak 1-22.9% 2-26.0% 3-31.9% 4-5.6% 5-3.4% DK-10.2% Average 2.3
10. From what is possible to learn until today, in your opinion, are the policies of Barak
on matters of peace significantly different than the policies of Netanyahu or is it only a
matter of style?
42.4% Policy and style different
29.9% Style different but policy basically same
10.3% No difference between Barak and Netanyahu - both style and
policy similar
17.5% Don't know
11. Prime Minister Barak set a timetable for the peace process. For example, that
the IDF will withdraw within a year from Lebanon or that within 15 months a framework for
peace with the Palestinians and Syrians will be developed. Does the setting of
timetables jibe with Israel interests in the negotiations or hurt them?
Very appropriate 9.4% Appropriate 31.7%
Hurts 26.3% Hurts a lot 19.8% Don't know 12.9%
12. Since the elections various Arab leaders have shown a willingness to come close to
Ehud Barak. Does this demonstrate principally the true intentions of the Arab world
to reach peace with Israel or is it only a stratagem meant to calm Israel so that it will
agree to concessions in the negotiations with the Arabs?
39.5% True intentions of the Arabs to reach peace
48.0% Only scheme to ease Israel to make concessions
4.0% Both to the same extent
8.5% Don't know
13-17 What effect would peace with the Arab states have on each of these matters?
13. The standing of women in Israel Improve 17.5% Worsen 4.3% No effect 70.9% Don't
know 7.3%
14. The standing of Arab citizens in Israel Improve 65.7% Worsen 4.7% No effect
22.9% Don't know 6.7%
15. The level of violence in Israeli society Improve 25.5% Worsen 18.4% No effect
46.2% Don't know 9.9%
16. The gap between rich and poor Improve 21.8% Worsen 20.3% No effect 49.1% Don't
know 8.8%
17. Religious-secular relations Improve 16.9% Worsen 28.7% No effect 45.4% Don't
know 9.0%
18. In your opinion, is Israeli society violent or not violent?
Not violent at all 1.1% Not very violent 18.7%
Violent 44.9% Very violent 34.4% Don't know 1.0%
Translated to English by Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director
IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
CPRS Survey Data
CPRS Palestinian Public Opinion
Poll #42 15-17 July 1999
These are the results of opinion poll # 42, conducted by the Center for
Palestine Research & Studies, between 15-17 July 1999. The poll deals with
the
peace process, evaluation of PA and NGOs performance, corruption in PA
institutions, the PLC and NGOs, status of democracy and human rights,
elections
for the president and vice-president and political affiliation
The total sample size of this poll is 1330 from Palestinians 18 years and
older,
of which 824 in the West Bank and 506 in the Gaza Strip. The margin of error
is
+ 3% and the non-response rate is 3%.
Main Results
* Support for the peace process rises from 70% to 75% in one month
* Support for armed attacks against Israelis drops from 45% to 39% in one
month
* Trust in the intentions of the new Israeli government led by Barak rises
from
23% to 29%
Support for violence is high among supporters of Hamas (62%) and PFLP (53%),
holders of BA degrees (52%), and students (46%) and low among supporters of
Fateh (33%), those with elementary education (34%), workers (31%) and the
retired (17%). Trust in the intentions of the Barak government increases
among
supporters of Fateh (42%), the illiterates (39%), farmers (41%), and the
retired
(39%). It decreases among supporters of Hamas (25%), holders of BA degrees
(12%), students (15%), and specialists (9%).
* Belief that corruption exists in PA institutions drops from 71% to 64%;
58%
believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future
* Positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy rises from 27% to 31%
* A majority of 58% believes that people can not criticize the PA without
fear
* Positive evaluation of democracy and human rights in Israel reaches 70%,
in
the US 60%, in France 51%, in Jordan 38%, in Egypt 33%
* Support for Fateh drops from 38% to 35%, Hamas reaches 11%, PFLP 5%,
Islamic
Jihad 3%, and the non-affiliated 38%.
The results indicate that the popularity of Yassir Arafat has not changed
during
the past few months remaining at 44%, while the popularity of Haidar Abdul
Shafi
has risen in one month from 10% to 14%, and that of Ahmad Yasin from 11% to
12%. Arafat's popularity is higher in the Gaza Strip (53%) than in the West Bank (38%),
while Abdul Shafi's popularity is equal in the two areas, and Yasin's is higher in the
West Bank (14%) than in the Gaza Strip (8%).
Results of Public Opinion Poll # 42 15-17 July 1999
(All figures are in percentages)
Unemployment 18.0
1. Do you support or oppose the current peace process between Palestinians and Israelis?
Support 74.9 Oppose 21.4 No Opinion 3.7
2. Do you trust the intentions of the new Israeli government headed by Barak towards
reaching an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement with Palestinians?
Yes 28.6 No 57.8 No Opinion /Don't Know 13.6
3. Generally, how do you evaluate the performance of:
3-1 the Palestinian Legislative Council?
Very Good 8.7 Good 31.4 Fair 31.1
Bad 12.2 Very Bad 6.7 Don't Know/ No Opinion 9.8
3-2 Palestinian Government (The Cabinet)
Very Good 9.1 Good 38.2 Fair 25.5
Bad 12.7 Very Bad 5.5 Don't Know/ No Opinion 9.0
3-3 Judicial Authority and Palestinian Courts
Very Good 10.2 Good 32.1 Fair 19.9
Bad 16.3 Very Bad 7.1 Don't Know/ No Opinion 14.5
3-4 Police and Security forces
Very Good 16.3 Good 39.2 Fair 19.1
Bad 13.3 Very Bad 5.3 Don't Know/ No Opinion 6.8
3-5 Institution of Presidency
Very Good 17.6 Good 40.6 Fair 13.8
Bad 6.8 Very Bad 2.8 Don't Know/ No Opinion 18.4
3-6 Opposition groups and factions
Very Good 7.2 Good 24.9 Fair 26.0
Bad 18.4 Very Bad 4.2 Don't Know/ No Opinion 19.3
3-7 Your district representatives at the PLC
Very Good 8.6 Good 34.6 Fair 19.8
Bad 17.0 Very Bad 6.1 Don't Know/ No Opinion 13.9
4. If separate elections for a Vice President of the Palestinian Authority were held
today, and the following names were nominated as candidates, whom would you choose?
Ahmad Qurai' (Abu Ala') 6.2 Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) 6.2
Farouq Kaddomi (Abu Lutuf) 4.5 Nabil Sha'ath 2.4
Sa'eb Erikat 8.2 Hanan Ashrawi 6.8 Faisal Husseini 8.2
Haidar Abdul Shafi 17.6 Other (Specify_) 1.0 No one 22.8
I will not participate in the elections 12.9 No Opinion /Don't Know 3.2
5. If separate elections for a Vice President of the Palestinian Authority
were
held today, and the following names were nominated as candidates, whom would
you
choose?
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) 13.8 Faisal Husseini 22.5
Haidar Abdul Shafi 37.2 Ahmad Qurai' (Abu Ala') 13.6
Other (Specify____) 7.7 No Opinion /Don't Know 5.3
6. Generally, how do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian non
governmental organizations (NGO's):
Very Good 17.5 Good 41.6 Fair 19.1
Bad 7.4 Very Bad 2.3 Don't Know/ No Opinion 12.1
7. Do you think that there is corruption in Palestinian NGO's?
Yes 43.1 No 30.9 Don't Know/ No Opinion 26.0
8. If you want to evaluate the status of democracy and human rights under
the
Palestinian Authority, you would say it is:
Very Good 7.1 Good 24.1 Fair 29.7
Bad 21.2 Very Bad 12.5 Don't Know/ No Opinion 5.3
9. And what about the status of democracy and human rights in other countries:
9-1 America
Very Good 33.7 Good 26.3 Fair 8.5
Bad 8.3 Very Bad 2.1 Don't Know/ No Opinion 21.2
9-2 Israel
Very Good 41.1 Good 28.7 Fair 9.2
Bad 6.7 Very Bad 2.0 Don't Know/ No Opinion 12.3
9-3 Jordan
Very Good 10.2 Good 27.8 Fair 26.0
Bad 16.4 Very Bad 4.8 Don't Know/ No Opinion 14.8
9-4 Egypt
Very Good 8.6 Good 24.2 Fair 20.8
Bad 16.3 Very Bad 6.8 Don't Know/ No Opinion 23.3
9-5 France
Very Good 25.5 Good 25.0 Fair 5.6
Bad 2.1 Very Bad 0.8 Don't Know/ No Opinion 41.1
10. Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions?
Yes 63.6 No 19.5 Not Sure 16.9
11. Will this corruption in PA institutions increase, decrease or remain as it is in the
future?
Increase 50.0 Remain as it is 7.9 Decrease 31.3 Don't Know/ No Opinion 10.8
12. In your opinion, in which of the following PA institutions does
corruption
exist?
12-1 Ministries and governmental offices
Yes 80.9 No 10.0 No Opinion /Don't Know 9.1
12-2 Security forces and police
Yes 76.1 No 14.4 No Opinion /Don't Know 9.5
12-3 Presidency Office
Yes 42.8 No 25.4 No Opinion /Don't Know 31.8
12-4 PLC
Yes 50.8 No 30.5 No Opinion/Don't Know 18.8
13. In your opinion, can people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip criticize
the
Palestinian Authority without fear?
Yes 37.7 No 58.1 Do not know 4.2
14. If separate elections for the president of the Palestinian Authority were held today,
whom would you choose?
Haydar Abdul Shafi 13.6 Yasser Arafat 43.9 Ahmad Yasin 11.7
Others 0.7 No one 18.8 I will not participate 9.7
No Opinion / Don't Know 1.7
15. Concerning armed attacks against Israeli targets, I...
Support 38.5 Oppose 55.9 No Opinion /Don't Know 5.6
16. Which of the following political parties do you support?
PPP 0.9 PFLP 4.6 Fateh 34.9 Hamas 11.2 DFLP 1.1
Islamic Jihad 3.1 Fida 0.2 Independent Islamists 2.9
Independent Nationalists 3.7 None of the above 35.8 Others 1.7
Center for Palestine Research & Studies (CPRS), PO Box 132, Nablus,
Palestine,
Tel. 972-9-2380383, Fax. 972-9-2380384
E-mail: cprs@cprs-palestine.org
Steimetz Survey Data - June
(source: IMRA News Service)
The Peace Index Project is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at
Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar Hermann and executed by
Teleseker.
PEACE PROJECT MAY 1999 SURVEY
For the May 30-31, 1999 survey, 501 people were interviewed by telephone. They comprised a
representative sampling of the adult Jewish population (including West Bank and the
kibbutzim).
Margin of error is about 4.5%.
THE PEACE INDEX - MAY 1999
1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and the Arabs?
Certain there will be peace 16.4% Think there will be peace 36.9%
In the middle 15.2% Think there will not be peace 14.1%
Certain there will not be peace 15.5% Don't know/no opinion 1.8%
2. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process
between Israel and the Arabs?
Greatly opposed 4.0% Somewhat opposed 4.6%
In the middle 10.9% Somewhat supportive 34.7%
Greatly supportive 43.9% Don't know/no opinion 1.9 %
3. What is your opinion on the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel and the
PLO (Agreement of Principles)? Heavily in favor 18.7% Somewhat in favor 24.5% In the
middle 27.5%
Somewhat opposed 8.1% Heavily opposed 13.0%
Don't know/no opinion 8.2%
4. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and the PLO will
bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?
Greatly believe 15.6% Somewhat believe 28.9%
In the middle 18.3% Somewhat don't believe 12.4%
Certainly don't believe 21.2% Don't know/no opinion 3.7 %
5. What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty between Israel and
Syria in exchange for full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
Greatly in favor 12.0% Somewhat in favor 14.7% In the middle 14.2%
Some what opposed 17.0% Greatly opposed 38.2%
Don't know/have no opinion 3.8%
6. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and Syria?
Certain there will be peace 10.1%
Think there will be peace 34.9% In the middle 19.4%
Think there will not be peace 18.4%
Certain there will not be peace 12.7%
Don't know/have no opinion 4.4%
7. There are those who claim that a narrow government of the left and center alone without
parties from the right and ultraorthodox would help Barak to advance the peace process but
would deepen the schism in the nation. In contrast a broad government, with the
participation of
parties from the right, haredis, center, and left would unite the
nation but would hamper the peace process. Assuming that these
assumptions are correct, which government do you prefer?
19.5% Narrow government that will advance the peace process
68.8% Broad government that will unite the nation
3.3% Only without the Ultraorthodox and Shas
0.2% Only without the right
0.3% Only without extreme left
2.7% Other answer
5.1% Don't know
What do you think will happen in the following areas after the elections?
Security situation in Israel
No change 30.2% Improve 47.7% Worsen 13.8% Don't know 8.3%
Trust between the public and the authorities
No change 21.0% Improve 60.4% Worsen 7.7% Don't know 10.9%
Personal security, namely terrorist attacks
No change 35.1% Improve 31.5% Worsen 21.0% Don't know 12.3%
Diplomatic negotiations with the Arabs
No change 14.1% Improve 66.8% Worsen 10.4% Don't know 8.7%
Economy
No change 17.4% Improve 65.8% Worsen 8.8% Don't know 8.0%
Religious-secular schism
No change 27.7% Improve 30.6% Worsen 31.0% Don't know 10.7%
Right-left schism
No change 30.7% Improve 43.5% Worsen 16.6% Don't know 9.2%
Economic-social gap
No change 33.2% Improve 46.9% Worsen 11.0% Don't know 8.9%
9. In your best estimation, does the election of Barak mean that most of the Israeli
public gave him permission to continue the Oslo process including giving up territory in
Judea and Samaria?
22.7% Certain yes
25.9% Think yes
26.4% Think there is no connection between the results of the elections and the position
of the public regarding the Oslo process
21.0% Certain there is no connection between the results of the elections and the position
of the public regarding the Oslo process
4.0% Don't know
10. In your opinion, will a government headed by Barak agree to sign a peace agreement
with the Palestinians that includes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state?
Certain yes 38.4% Think yes 39.6% Think no 11.0% Certain no 4.1%
Don't know 6.9%
11. Do you support or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state?
Support a lot 13.1% Support 28.6%
Oppose 19.3% Oppose a lot 31.2%
No position 7.8%
12. In your opinion will a government headed by Barak agree to sign a peace agreement with
the Palestinians that includes recognition of eastern Jerusalem as the capital of
Palestine?
Certain yes 11.0% Think yes 18.8% Think no 31.9% Certain no 31.2%
Don't know 7.1%
13. Do you support or oppose a peace agreement with the Palestinians that includes
recognition of eastern Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state?
Support a lot 5.1% Support 7.0%
Oppose 19.1% Oppose a lot 63.7%
No position 5.1%
14.In your opinion will a government headed by Barak agree to sign a peace agreement with
the Syrians that includes full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
Certain yes 16.7% Think yes 40.6%
Think no 21.2% Certain no 10.7%
Don't know 10.9%
15. In your opinion, in light of the last elections, has the nation of Israel become more
united or divided or unchanged as compared to previous years?
More united 24.1% More divided 28.2% No change 39.9%
More divided AND more united 1.0% Don't know 6.9%
16. As you know, until now a government did not have a minister from the Arab parties.
Do you support or oppose Barak appointing a minister from these parties?
Support a lot 13.3% Support 26.6%
Oppose 18.0% Oppose a lot 34.5%
Don't know 7.5%
SteinMetz Poll - March 30 1999
For the March 30, 1999
survey, 497 Israeli Jews - a representative sample - were interviewed by telephone. Error:
about 4.5%.
1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and the Arabs?
Certain there will be peace 14.6%
Think there will be peace 28.1%
In the middle 19.3%
Think there will not be peace 13.9%
Certain there will not be peace 19.4%
Don't know/no opinion 4.7%
2. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process
between Israel and the Arabs?
Greatly opposed 5.6% Somewhat opposed 5.3%
In the middle 9.5% Somewhat supportive 30.0%
Greatly supportive 47.1% Don't know/no opinion 2.5 %
3. What is your opinion of the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel
and the PLO (Declaration of Principles)?
Heavily in favor 23.4% Somewhat in favor 25.5% In the middle 24.5%
Somewhat opposed 8.7% Heavily opposed 13.5%
Don't know/no opinion 4.5%
4. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and
the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming
years?
Greatly believe 15.8% Somewhat believe 27.6%
In the middle 18.4% Somewhat don't believe 12.4%
Certainly don't believe 22.3% Don't know/no opinion 3.5 %
5. What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty between Israel and
Syria in exchange for full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
Greatly in favor 14.5% Somewhat in favor 16.4% In the middle 16.4%
Some what opposed 16.1% Greatly opposed 33.0%
Don't know/have no opinion 3.5%
6. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between
Israel and Syria?
Certain there will be peace 8.6%
Think there will be peace 27.1% In the middle 19.9%
Think there will not be peace 21.7%
Certain there will not be peace 17.6%
Don't know/have no opinion 5.1%
7. The Palestinians claim that they deserve their own independent state.
What is you opinion of this claim?
Very justified 19.2% Considerably justified 35.4%
Considerably unjustified 14.5% Completely unjustified 28.1%
Don't know 2.8%
8. What do you think are the chances that the current peace process will lead in the
end to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state?
Certain yes 29.0% Yes 40.1% No 17.1% Certain no 8.0% Don't know 5.8%
9. Do you think that within the framework of a peace treaty with the Palestinians
Israel can allow itself to agree to the establishment of an independent Palestinians
state?
Certain yes 20.8% yes 34.8% no 15.4% Certain no 23.5% Don't know 5.5%
10. What government will succeed, in your opinion, best to advance the peace process while
protecting the interests of Israel within the framework of negotiations with various
Arabs?
A government headed by:
Barak 31.4% Netanyahu 36.7% Mordechai 12.4% All same 8.8% Don't know 10.6%
11. There are those that claim that any government established after the elections will in
the end reach a final settlement with the Palestinians that includes withdrawal from
territories and recognition of a Palestinian state. To what extent is this correct?
Very correct 25.0% Correct 37.2% Not so correct 23.1% Completely incorrect 10.5%
12. There are those that claim that any government established after the elections will in
the end agree to compromise with the Palestinians over Jerusalem. To what extent is
this correct?
Very correct 12.6% Correct 19.7%
Not so correct 25.6% Completely incorrect 37.7% Don't know 4.6%
13. In your estimation, will Arafat declare the establishment of an independent
Palestinian state on May 4?
Certain yes 6.7% Appears yes 19.8%
Appears no 35.0% Certainly no 32.5% Don't know 6.1%
14. If Arafat declares the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on May 4, how
should Israel react?
45.3% Stop negotiations with the Palestinians
46.8% Continue negotiations with the Palestinians
7.8% Don't know
15. If Arafat declares the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on May 4,
would this move strengthen the right wing parties, left wing parties or have no influence
on the upcoming elections?
43.9% Strengthen right wing parties
11.6% Strengthen left wing parties
31.6% No effect
12.9% Don't know
16. Do you agree or disagree with the following view: In truth, the majority of the
Palestinians have not accepted the existence of the State of Israel and would destroy
it if they could, despite that the PLO is negotiating for peace with Israel.
Completely agree 33.7% Considerably agree 14.3% So-so 19.8%
Considerably disagree 9.6% Completely disagree 18.8% Don't know 3.9%
For reference purposes - February 1998 question:
Do you agree or disagree with the following view: The majority of the Arabs
have not accepted the existence of the State of Israel and would destroy it if they
could?
Agree a lot 38.4% Considerably agree 21.6% So-so Middle 15.4%
Considerably disagree 16.7% Completely disagree 6.3% Don't know 1.6%
May 8 - Palestinians Pessimistic
PCPO SURVEY OF WEST BANK
ON ORIENT HOUSE/OSLO/PEACE
Source: Aaron Lerner IMRA News Service
The following are the results of a survey on May 5-8 of a representative sample of 430
adult Palestinians from the West Bank and Jerusalem carried out by the Palestinian Center
for Public Opinion (PCPO) at Beit Sahour under the supervision of Dr. Nabil Kukali.
Sample error +/- 3.5 percentage points:
What is your position on decision of the Palestinian Central Council to postpone the
declaration of the Palestinian statehood?
Support 43.5% Oppose 48% No opinion 8.5%
What is your mood after the decision of the Israeli government to close the office of
Orient House?
Optimistic 38.6% Pessimistic 48.6% No opinion 12.8%
Is the American government serious about its letter of assurances?
Yes 20.3% No 62.6% Don't know 17.1%
Will the Oslo Agreement lead to a final solution between the Israelis and the
Palestinians?
Yes 22.6% No 56% Don't know 21.4%
Do you believe that the Oslo Agreement has reached a dead end?
Yes 35.6% No 26% Don't know 12.8%
Do you believe that suicide attacks will occur in Israel? Yes 24.7% No 35.1% Don't know
40.2%
JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 31
On Palestinian Attitudes Towards Politics March 1999
Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre (JMCC)
PO Box 25047, East Jerusalem, Palestine
Tel. 972-2-5819777, Fax. 972-2-5829534
E-mail: jmcc@jmcc.org
A random sample of 1199 people over the age of 18 were interviewed in person throughout
the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 18, 19 March 1999.
Results
Q.1 How optimistic or pessimistic are you about reaching a peaceful Arab-Israeli
settlement? Would you say you are:
Very Optimistic 4.8 Optimistic 64.2
Pessimistic 23.9 Very Pessimistic 6.3
No answer 0.8
Q.2 What is your opinion about the Oslo agreement? Can you say you strongly support,
support, oppose, strongly oppose?
Strongly support 5.2 Support 50.9
Oppose 29.8 Strongly oppose 8.3
No answer 5.8
Q.3 In general, do you support or oppose the current peace process between the
Palestinians and Israel?
Support 63.7 Oppose 34.7 No anaswer 1.6
Q.3-1 Do you strongly support, somewhat, support, strongly oppose, or somewhat oppose?
Strongly Support 19.5 Support 44.5
Strongly oppose 15.1 Somewhat oppose 19.8
No answer 1.1
Q.4 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinian Legislative Council's performance? Do
you say it is very good performance, good, bad, or very bad?
Very good 5.3 Good 44.3
Bad 33.2 Very bad 10.8
No answer 6.4
Q.5 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinians Authority's performance? Do you say
it is very good,good, bad, or very bad?
Very good 7.2 Good 54.8
Bad 24.3 Very bad 10.7
No answer 3.0
Q.6 Some participated in the PLC elections while others boycotted them, now three years
after those elections, do you think the boycott
decision was correct or wrong?
Correct 32.0 Wrong 57.2 No answer 10.8
Q.7 Which of the following problems do you believe is the most important facing the
Palestinian people?
Jerusalem 46.2 Refugees 14.8 Settlements 30.8 Other 2.1 No answer 6.1
Q.8 Which Palestinian figure do you trust most?
Yasser Arafat 38.8 Ahmad Yaseen 9.5 Haidar Abdul Shafi 6.1
Others 12.0 Don't trust anyone 26.8 No answer 6.8
Q.9 Which political or religious faction do you trust most?
Fateh 37.6 Hamas 14.7 Popular Front 2.0 Islamic Jihad 2.6
Others 2.8 Do not trust anyone 31.0 No answer 9.3
Q.10 Do you trust or distrust the judicial and courts system in Palestine? Would you say
fully trust it, have some trust or distrust?
Fully trust it 21.7 Have some trust 35.0
Distrust it 36.8 No opinion 4.7 No answer 1.8
Q.11 In the case of the establishment of a Palestinian state, do you think the state
should be run according to Islamic law or according to secular non-religious laws?
Islamic Law 79.8 Secular non-religious Laws 15.8 No answer 4.4
Q.12 Now, I will ask you about some Palestinian fugures, please tell me if you trust,
distrust, or have no information about them?
Trust Middle Distrust No info
Yasser Arafat
62.9
16.7 16.2 2.9
Ahmad Yaseen
54.6
24.0 14.1 5.7
Haidar Abdul Shafi 47.0 20.3
14.2 16.7
Faisal al-Husseini 35.9 27.6
20.9 13.4
Sa'eb Erekat
33.1
25.7 21.9 17.7
Hanan Ashrawi
32.7
28.1 25.0 11.5
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 25.8 24.2 24.9
23.2
Jibreel Rajoub
16.9 16.2 36.0 28.1
Muhammad Dahlan 13.3
18.7 31.5 33.9
Geroge Habash
13.2
16.7 37.6 29.2
Q.13 Now, I will ask you about some Palestinian political and religious figures, please
tell me if you trust, distrust, or have inadequate information?
Trust Middle Distrust No info
Fateh
53.0 19.3 22.4 3.4
Hamas
41.0 30.3 22.8 3.9
Palestinian People's Party 9.0 20.8
44.9 22.9
Democratic Front
7.3 19.9 49.4 21.0
Popular Front
11.3 20.3 46.5 19.4
Islamic Jihad
27.3 32.4 25.4 12.5
Q14. To what extent do you support or oppose having a national coalition governent
consisting of all the political and religious parties, including the opposition?
Strongly support 36.5 Somewhat support 34.2 In between 17.8
Somewhat oppose 5.3 Strongly oppose 3.2 No answer 3.0
Q15 If the Palestinian Authority implements the Islamic law, how will this effect your
position from the authority; will it increase your support, decrease your support,
increase your opposition, or will it not affect your position at all?
Increase my support 63.9 Decrease my support 2.4
Will not affect 27.0
Increase my opposition 1.9 Decrease my opposition 2.9 No answer 1.9
Q16 Do you think President Arafat is doing his job as president for the National Authority
in a good, fari, bad or very bad way?
Good 49.4 Fair 32.1 Bad 10.5 Very bad 5.3 No answer 2.7
Q17. To what extent do you support or oppose the idea of forming a national salvation
authority through which Hamas can join in government?
Support 43.3 In between 37.7 Oppose 12.5 No answer 6.5
Q18 Which position serves Hamas best, Taking power, participating in the authority with
others or not participating at all in the authority?
Taking power 10.2 Participating the authority with others 59.4
Not participating at all 21.5 No answer 8.9
Q19. Do you support the resumption of military operations against Israeli targets as an
appropriate response in the currently political conditions or do you oppose them as they
harm the national interest?
Support 35.7 Oppose 56.0 No answer 8.3
Q20. What about suicidal bombing operations, do you see them as an appropriate response in
the currently political conditions or do you oppose them as they harm the national
interest?
Support 26.1 Oppose 66.5 No answer 7.4
Q21 Fateh is considered the main party in the Authority while Hamas is considered the main
opposition pole; to what extent do you believe int he possibility of any cooperation
between them?
Great opportunity 12.9 Small opportunity 54.7
No opportunity at all 27.4 No answer 5.0
Q22. The recent period witnessed issuing and executing death penalty sentences in the
national authority areas; what is your position regarding the death penalty in the PA
areas?
Support 17.0 In between 25.9 Oppose 54.8 No answer 2.3
Q23 If Likud Party loses the elections and the Labor Party assumes power in the next
elections, do you think the Palestinian political condition, in general, will become
better or it will stay the same or worse?
Better 24.5 Will stay the same 50.2 Worse 18.8
No answer 6.5
Q24. If the possibility of having an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty in the
West Bank (including East Jerusalem) reaches a dead end, do you strongly support, support,
oppose or strongly oppose the idea of establishing a joint state for Israelis and
Palestinians in all Palestine (Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip)?
Strongly support 2.8 Support 15.5 Neither support nor oppose 18.3
Oppose 34.7 Strongly oppose 24.1 No answer 4.6
Q25. If the possibility of having an independent Palestinian State with sovereignty in the
West Bank (including East Jerusalem) reaches a dead end, do you strongly support, support,
oppose, or strongly
oppose the idea of establishing an Islamic state in all Palestine (Israel, the West Bank
and Gaza Strip)?
Strongly support 24.7 Support 38.8 Neither support nor oppose 18.2
Oppose 11.6 Strongly oppose 2.6 No answer 4.1
Q26 if the possibility of having an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty in the
West Bank (including East Jerusalem) reaches a dead end, to what extent do you support or
oppose the authority in
taking the following positions:
A. Keep negotiating with Israel to salvage what can be salvages
Strongly support 15.8 Support 40.9 Middle 12.6
Oppose strongly 20.7 Oppose 8.0 No answer 2.0
B. Wait till a change in the balance of power
Strongly support 7.0 Support 27.2 Middle 20.4
Oppose strongly 31.0 Oppose 7.9 No answer 6.5
C. Demand linking with Jordan
Strongly support 5.9 Support 28.8 Middle 23.0
Oppose strongly 26.9 Oppose 9.1 No answer 6.3
D. Demand the establishment of a joint state for Palestinians and Israelis in all
Palestine
Strongly support 3.2 support 16.6 Middle 15.3
Oppose strongly 38.7 Oppose 21.4 No answer 4.8
E. Go back to armed struggle
Strongly support 17.0 Support 28.8 Middle 18.4
Oppose strongly 26.9 Oppose 4.5 No answer 4.4
F.Go back to popular struggle
Strongly support 20.6 support 32.7 Middle 14.4
Oppose strongly 23.9 Oppose 4.1 No answer
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