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5763: Articles posted from September 2002-September 2003

Get the real situation in Israel every day.

April 4, 2003

In it's third week, the war appears to be almost over

by Robert Rosenberg

In its third week, the war appears to be almost over -- there's no more Iraqi army, Saddam is nowhere to be seen, and meanwhile the coalition forces know they want no part of urban warfare, and have the patience to build up the kind of force outside the city that will make all but the most unreasonable people understand the fighting is over. The few thousand diehards left across the face of Iraq will soon be isolated by the vast majority who, more than anything, want a night of peaceful sleep, something the Saddam regime never provided except to the blissfully ignorant, brainwashed unaware, and the most cynical of his cotierie.

The Brits are showing how to do it in Basra, working with local burghers, clerics and businessmen (as well as surrendered soldiers) who provide information about where to find the remaining thugs with the guns -- because that's probably all that's left of Saddam Hussein's regime.

So, don't expect some mass invasion of Baghdad -- and face facts, the predictions of a bloodbath by the opponents of the war were greatly exaggerated.

The shock and awe, really, is how after more than 20,000 sorties, fewer than 1,000 civilians were killed, according to Iraqi TV there have been fewer than 500 civilian casualties. Considering that's a tenth of the number of Kurds gassed to death by Iraqi forces, and about a hundredth of the number of Iranians killed the same way, methinks the Iraqis do protest too much, though the death of even one innocent is one too many.

Saddam is probably incapacitated in one of his nuclear bomb shelters, four room affairs under his 'palaces' that have been bombed so often, so deeply, and so consistently over the last 12 days that it is possible, maybe even probable, that Saddam was indeed hit, with his sons, in that first 'pinpoint prevention' suprise bombing that preceded 'Awe and Shock.' The shelter might be inpenetrable to anything but atomic bombs, but by now, the shelter where Saddam has obviously been hiding (because that's what he had the shelters built for) has been hit so many times, that he might just be buried alive, unable to leave - and possibly under so much dirt and rubble that he's impossible to find. It would be a fitting end to the guy.

Now, of course, say the cynical, meaning those experienced enough to prefer not to be disappointed so they'll always assume the worse, the smashing of the Iraqi regime will only fan the flames of international jihad.

Yes, perhaps, but it is also not unreasonable to assume that the Iraqis can be as debrainwashed as the Germans and Japanese, and to recognize the idea that the Arab world is unsuited to democracy has been a myth propagated by Arab regimes since the breakdown of old-fashioned imperialism.

The war in Iraq might yield another round of world-wide terrorism, but the ranks of the terrorists will begin to shrink as they become more isolated with the loss of one of the wealthiest of the petrodollar regimes that supported terror, even if in recent years (and only because of on again off again inspections and sanctions that Saddam turne dinto ways to smuggle billions into his private accounts) the terror was against his own people.

Truth-telling has never been a strong point with dictatorial regimes, especially when they are coming down; It took hours for people to check to see if Stalin was alive, because they were to scared he wasn't and would assassinate anyone he believed might have wanted to look to see if they were next in line afer him.

Dictators, like most criminals, by definition don't tell the truth and certainly don't cooperate with 'the authorities.' And what makes the U.S. and British the 'authorities?' -- the very freedom that enables people to protest wars against tyrannies.

Would you like to be the one to tell Saddam and his sons that the Americans are on the door? Especially if he's been hurt, his leg wrapped in bandages. He's kept the wound clean, I'm sure -- it's been said that he insists everyone around him be freshly showered, a fanatic for cleanliness. But does he have a doctor on board? -- other than that biochemist woman, so charmingly portrayed in an interview on international TV last month, saying 'our chemical weapons are only for defense.'

Meanwhile, I wonder if the AP report, just coming in, about U.S. forces finding boxes of white powder and documentation regarding chemical warfare and nerve gas will shock all those demonstrators who wanted to believe that Saddam's regime was telling the truth, let alone cooperating, with Hans Blix's UN inspectors. Maybe it's a chemical to use against the effects of chemical warfare. Which still begs the question, who exactly has used that kind of weaponry in the past, and in a way has something to do with thwe fact the Jews don't intend to allow themslves ty be gassed a second time within 100 years, and it's about time the Kurds got their chance to punish those who tried it on them and the British are there to make sure the Americans keep it legal.

The one thing missing from the American war has been their proposal for a constituion in the country.

I found this from Reuter, Saturday noon, Israel time.

[

NEAR BAGHDAD (Reuters©) - First tests of a white powder found in thousands of boxes near the Iraqi capital indicate that it was not a chemical weapon, a U.S. military officer said on Saturday.

AFP Photo
AFP
Slideshow Slideshow: Iraq Chemical Warfare Issues

 

"On first analysis it does not appear to be a chemical that could be used in a chemical weapons attack," Colonel John Peabody, commander of the Engineer Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division, told Reuters. He said it would be sent for more tests.

Peabody said most of it appeared to be atropine, used as an antidote to nerve gas, and another chemical.

U.S. forces said on Friday they had found thousands of boxes containing vials of unidentified liquid and white powder as well as manuals on chemical warfare at two sites near Baghdad.

The United States and Britain launched the war on March 20 to oust President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) with the overriding justification that they wanted to rid Iraq (news - web sites) of alleged weapons of mass destruction.

Saddam, who used such weapons in the 1980s, denies that he now has chemical or biological arms. U.S.-led forces have found no firm evidence to contradict him but say they are sure they will find it.

One plant containing the boxes, which was shown on U.S. military maps as including underground storage facilities, was near the town of Latifiya, southwest of Baghdad.

The site seemed to be part of the al Qaa'qaa state establishment, a large industrial complex in Iraq which makes powder, explosives and propellants for all military industries.

The vials were about 4 1/2 inches long. Some contained liquid, some powder. The books and manuals were in a safe. U.S. troops said they also found a second site nearby containing vials of unidentified liquid and white powder.

HEART OF BAGHDAD

U.S. military said that troops pushed into the heart of Baghdad on Saturday after fighting with elite Iraqi forces.

] Earlier articles by Robert Rosenberg on the war in Iraq:
March 19, 2003 My biggest worry is even if the Americans hang his body in UN plaza he'll have followers who think Saddam lives on.

March 28, 2003 An Ariga Update: Salam Pax's web in Baghdad





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