Today's Situation

NASRALLAH'S OPTIMISM, October 17, 2007

Contacts between Israel and Hizbollah continue to dominate the front pages of all but one of Israel's leading daily newspapers on Wednesday. Only Yedioth Ahronoth bucks the trend, leading with an exclusive report regarding the Israeli air strike on a Syrian military institution on September 6. According to the report, Syrian officials have admitted that the site attacked by the Israeli air force was a nuclear facility.

According to the newspaper, three Israeli diplomats present at a recent United Nations Disarmament Commission meeting overheard the Syrian representative clearly say that Israel's attack targeted a nuclear facility.

The Israeli delegation to the talks, headed by Miriam Ziv, the Foreign Ministry's deputy director general for strategic affairs, accused Syria of smuggling mass amounts of weapons into Lebanon in violation of the UN Security Council's resolution. In response a Syrian representative said Israel was the aggressor and mentioned its attack on a 'nuclear facility.' Until now Syria has vehemently denied the existence of a nuclear project in its territory, claiming the site was actually an agricultural research facility.

Meanwhile, the flurry of activity between Israel and Hizbollah intensified on Tuesday, when Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claimed that there had been 'positive progress' in contacts between Jerusalem and Hizbollah.

In a televised speech, on Hizbollah's Al Manar station, the organization's leader confirmed that Monday's limited exchange between Israel and Hizbollah provided 'an important incentive' for a major prisoner swap - including abducted Israeli soldiers Goldwasser and Regev - in the future.

According to Israel Radio, however, officials in Jerusalem said Wednesday that despite rumors to the contrary, the government does not intend to release Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar. The denial comes after Haaretz, in its lead headline, said that the current Israeli assessment was that Kuntar would be part of an exchange that saw Regev and Goldwasser going in the opposite direction.

Previously, as part of the Tennenbaum deal, Kuntar was only to have been released in exchange for solid information on the fate of missing airman Ron Arad, who was taken captive exactly 21 years ago. Monday's deal was also said to include documents relating to Arad - according to speculation, letters he wrote during the first years of his captivity. But, according to Channel 2 news, those documents shed no more light on Arad's whereabouts, only on how and whom Hezbollah has been talking to in order to find out more information about the missing navigator. It will take a few more days before Israel receives the information transferred from Hezbollah to the German mediator.

This dilemma - whether to exchange to Kuntar for information on Arad or for the release of Goldwasser Regev - was confirmed by unnamed military officials, quoted on Israel Radio on Wednesday.

Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said Wednesday morning that Israel will have to choose between Arad and the two soldiers. Speaking on Army Radio, he added that Hizbollah insists it has not been able to locate Arad and does not know whether he is dead or alive. 'This is a complex dilemma,' Vilnai explained, somewhat redundantly.

On the diplomatic front, meanwhile, there has been less progress.

According to Israel Radio, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has cancelled a media conference after her visit to Bethlehem - because she has no progress to report.

Rice - who is in the region as part of the preparations for next month's planned Middle East summit in Annapolis - spent Wednesday morning praying at the Bethlehem Church of Nativity and spoke with local academic and political leaders.

Rice returned from her quick visit to Cairo, where she obtained an Egyptian commitment to back the Annapolis summit, although she admitted that the date for the summit may be pushed back a month until December.

On both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however, there is pessimism surrounding the summit. According to Ynet, senior Bush administration officials received a gloomy report from four leading Knesset Members on Tuesday, in which they warned the U.S. has set itself up for failure by trying to force an agreement at the planned conference. Criticism was voiced both by left and right wing MKs.

Meretz leader MK Yossi Beilin warned State Department and security officials of a 'disaster' that will boost the popularity of Hamas. He added that talks between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert could have continued instead of staging a high-profile Middle East Conference. 'We did not ask for the Annapolis conference, but if you wanted it then it is your responsibility,' MK Beilin told his hosts.

Likud MK Yuval Steinitz told the Americans they are 'playing with fire' by trying to bring about a quick agreement on the status of Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, Palestinian analyst Han al-Masri told Reuters, 'If the international conference fails, Hamas will try to present itself as an alternative, arguing Abbas is too weak to build any future state.'

The United States has poured more than one hundred million dollars in weapons and military support for Abbas, but like Olmert, he has failed to rally support from the general population. 'We are facing a very grave situation,' al-Masri said. 'People distrust the Palestinian police. They are buying guns to defend themselves.'

Haaretz, meanwhile, reports that Quartet envoy Tony Blair is proposing a tripartite committee that would press for reforms in the Palestinian security organizations, and for improvements in the freedom of movement in the West Bank. This is one of the ideas that Blair recently offered Olmert, as part of a plan of action. Blair calls his plan The Rapid Effect Project, and he is of the opinion that in the coming month or two, it is necessary to carry out a series of high-profile actions that will create a feeling among the Palestinians in the West Bank that there are positive developments that will improve their lives.

Finally, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and American Defense Secretary Robert Gates agreed in Washington on Tuesday night to set up a joint committee to study a missile defense system for Israel. The Americans will try to find ways to help Israel develop a system despite their doubts that short-range rockets can be knocked out before hitting their targets.

Barak previously has said that Israel cannot withdraw from any more of the West Bank until there is a system to defend the center of the country from rockets and missiles. Military intelligence has warned that terrorists are stockpiling weaponry for future use against Israeli cities.

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