Today's Situation

TROOPS UNDER FIRE, September 11, 2007

Only Yedioth Ahronoth managed to report in its later editions on the Qassam rocket attack on an IDF base adjacent to the Gaza Strip in the early hours of Tuesday morning, in which close to 70 soldiers were wounded – one of them critically. Three other soldiers are in critical condition, seven were moderately hurt and the rest were lightly wounded.
The Islamic Jihad and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) have claimed responsibility for the attack which occurred around 2 A.M. Tuesday. A Hamas spokesman praised Tuesday's rocket attack on an Israeli army base, calling it a 'Victory from God for the resistance. Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum told Hamas radio, 'We consider the resistance as the legitimate right of the Palestinians to defend themselves and restore their rights.'
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, meanwhile, convened his Security Cabinet Tuesday morning to discuss Israel's response to the attack.
According to Ynet, an official in Jerusalem said, 'We don't expect another Defensive Shield following the incident – but the IDF has already responded and will continue to act against the terror infrastructure and its leaders.'
The official was referring to an IDF attacked on an area in Gaza identified by spokesmen as a Qassam rocket launching site, just hours after the Zikim attack. Palestinian sources said that a woman and her daughter were injured in the strike, but the claim was not confirmed by the IDF.
Close to noon, Ynet reported that the meeting between Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and IDF chief Gabi Ashkenazi had ended, without any operative decisions being made. The report added that it was not clear it any further consultations would be held today.
Despite the early hour of the attack, by lunchtime all of the websites had posted analyses of the likely ramifications. On the Haaretz site, Amos Harel says that 'Israel's response … likely be limited, due mainly to recent tensions with Syria.'
According to Harel, 'it is Israel's policy at this time not to invest too many resources in Gaza, the source of the Qassam rockets, when these resources could potentially be required should conflict erupt in the north. The IDF response to the incident will likely be similar to its retaliations for previous attacks and will probably include air strikes on Qassam rocket launching sites in northern Gaza, as well as limited ground operations within the Strip.'
Ynet's Hannan Greenberg agrees, saying 'the IDF is likely to expand its pinpointed operations in the north of the Strip. In the next few days we are likely to witness more in-depth, prolonged and comprehensive operations in rocket-launching areas.'
Greeenberg adds, however, that 'in the southern command, they have long completed a contingency plan for an operation in Gaza – from a small scale operation and up to a large scale ground assault. Training has also been carried out ahead of the day of order. The green light has not yet been given by the political establishment, and the IDF is making do with pinpointed operations.'
According to Arutz 7, although government officials uniformly maintain that no conflict is expected with Syria, the army is nonetheless maintaining a state of alert on the northern border, especially with the New Year's holiday to begin Wednesday evening.
Speaking on Army Radio, meanwhile, National Union/NRP Knesset member Effie Eitam called on Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu to quit the coalition government if it does not approve a ground incursion into Gaza to end the attacks.
Brig.-Gen. (Ret.) Yaakov Amidror, a former IDF deputy intelligence chief, told Israel Radio that he does not advocate an immediate ground invasion of Gaza, 'because of the tensions in the north. We don't need to be stretched to our limit in two places at once.' Nonetheless, Amidror said that 'such an offensive must inevitably be taken.'
Israel Radio points out that the Zikim attack coincides with a planned meeting of the cabinet on Tuesday, at which the defense establishment is due to present its plan to cut Gaza's electricity and fuel supply, and to disrupt the delivery of supplies to the Strip, in response to the Qassam attacks.
This follows a proposal by Vice Premier Haim Ramon last week, who told Yedioth Ahronoth that he advocates 'cutting off the electricity and water to the Gaza Strip,' until such time as the Qassams stop. Ramon – who was described as one of the more moderate members of the current government – wants to tell Hamas that every Qassam that lands on Israeli soil will lead to a power outage of two or three hours in Gaza.
Unable to provide coverage of the Zikim attack, and still unable to provide an Israel response to the alleged incident in Syrian airspace last Thursday, Haaretz continues to lead with comments from Syrian officials. In its Tuesday edition, the paper quotes Foreign Minister Walid Muallem as saying that the Israeli warplanes that allegedly violated Syria's airspace dropped live ammunition on Syrian soil. Muallem added that Israel's decision not to comment was 'appropriate.'
Haaretz also reports that the Prime Minister's Bureau recently requested a copy of a 1995 paper formulated during secret meetings between Yossi Beilin and Mahmoud Abbas. According to the report, officials asked Beilin for a copy of the document – which addresses a possible framework for permanent settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – possibly because Olmert and his aides want to learn about the issues on which Abbas expressed agreement in the past and make use of that knowledge in the current effort.
Also on the Palestinian front, Arutz 7 reports on 'signs of potential trouble' for Olmert from within his own government. According to the settler-run news agency, coalition partner Shas says it will vote against Olmert's recommendation to release more Palestinian prisoners as a gesture for the Moslem holy month of Ramadan.
Shas chairman Eli Yishai was quoted as saying that it has been proven that unilateral gestures don't work.
Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, also came out against further gestures to the Palestinians. Lieberman said he and fellow party cabinet minister Yitzhak Aharonovich will vote against the prisoner release if it comes up for a vote in the cabinet.

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