Today's Situation

DAILY DOSE OF SYRIANA, August 14, 2007

Not a day goes by without one of Israel's daily newspapers leading with some new information or insight into the growing tensions between Israel and Syria. On Tuesday, it was Haaretz's turn. In its lead story, the paper's military correspondent, Amos Harel, claims that Israeli military intelligence has defined the coming weeks as critical in terms of a possible war between the two nations.

Yedioth Ahronoth, meanwhile, reports that the current tension can be blamed on one man: General Assef Shawkat, brother-in-law to Syrian President Bashar Assad and head of the country's intelligence agency. According to the paper, Shawkat is seeking to raise tensions in order to deflect attention away from himself and his alleged role in a series of political assassination in Lebanon, including that of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The paper, quoting a Lebanese officials, says that Shawkat went as far as to tell Assad that only a Syrian missile attack on Israeli population centers would convince Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to negotiate a return of the Golan Heights. (See below.)

The Jerusalem Post leads with a report that claims that 'the British government has blocked almost one third of British military exports to Israel this year, citing possible threats to regional stability and fears the equipment might facilitate human rights violations. According to official figures, the value of U.K. military sales arms to Israel declined by one third last year, and has fallen by a drastic 75 percent since 2005.'

On the Palestinian front, Israel Radio reports that Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said Tuesday that Western nations would eventually agree to hold talks with the organization. Zuhri's comment came after a statement Monday in which Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi urged European countries and others to "maintain dialogue" with Hamas. Prodi's recommendation was immediately rejected by Israel's Foreign Ministry, which expressed the belief that most European countries would not negotiate with the terrorists.

In a meeting with a delegation of United States congressional leaders, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said negotiating with Hamas would be tantamount to accepting terror and legitimizing extremists. Livni added that the international community must show determination and differentiate between moderates and extremists. She said beginning a dialogue with Hamas would erode the foundations of the new Palestinian government and harm efforts to reach any agreement with it.

In the Gaza Strip, meanwhile, Army Radio reports that four Palestinians were killed Tuesday in separate incidents. While details of the deaths remain unclear, the IDF confirmed in a statement that forces fired at armed militants in four separate incidents and hit the targets on each occasion. A spokesman said aircraft carried out three attacks and ground forces shot a gunman posing a threat to soldiers.

Army Radio also reports that the navies and air forces of Israel, Turkey and the United States will stage joint search and rescue exercises in late August south of the Turkish coast. An announcement by the IDF said that 10 ships, four helicopters and four search and rescue aircraft from the three countries will partake in the 'Reliant Mermaid VIII' exercise in international waters in the Mediterranean south of the Turkish coast. 'The objective of this exercise is to practice coordinated emergency search and rescue procedures and measures for safety of life at sea,' a spokesman said in a statement.

Finally, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a two-pronged challenge to his leadership of the Likud party, although neither of his opponents in today's leadership election have any real chance of overhauling him as chairman. The big concern for Netanyahu, however, is that a low voter turnout will allow the stronger of the two challengers, rightist Moshe Feiglin, to garner a significant proportion of the vote. If this happens, according to Haaretz, Netanyahu is likely to face a barrage of assaults from Kadima and Labor, who will argue that Feiglin is the true face of Likud.

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