Today's Situation

DEAR TONY, July 25, 2007

A public sector strike has shut down much of Israel and has grabbed all the headlines in Wednesday's papers. Post offices, trains, government offices and even burial services are among the public services to have been affected by the strike, but a wave of public pressure led to the Histadrut labor federation announcing that it would only shut down Ben-Gurion International Airport from Thursday.

This is good news for three high-profile visitors to Israel - one of whom is due to leave the country today and two of whom are arriving.

Tony Blair, who is wrapping up his first visit to the region as the special Middle East of the Quartet, held a working dinner with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Tuesday night, at which he was told that Israel will take steps to allow Palestinians in the West Bank greater freedom of movement, according to Haaretz. Olmert also told Blair that Israel will ease restrictions on the transportation of goods through its crossing points with the Palestinian Authority.

Haaretz adds that diplomatic sources say that in his meeting with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on Monday, Blair said he believed there was currently no point in having Israel negotiate a permanent agreement with the Palestinians. He said he wanted to focus on helping the Palestinian Authority establish its governmental institutions.

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Olmert took an altogether tougher line in his meeting with Blair, warning him that 'cooperation between Fateh and Hamas may harm the diplomatic process.' Olmert added that Israel and the West must continue to isolate Hamas while strengthening Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his prime minister, Salam Fayyad.

Early on Tuesday, Blair held a joint conference with Peres in Jerusalem, saying that he saw "a sense of possibility" in the Middle East and encouraging the Israelis and the Palestinians to work at it over time.

In its lead story, Haaretz reports that Olmert has offered Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas negotiations toward an "Agreement of Principles" for the establishment of a Palestinian state on most of the territory of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. According to the report, Olmert believes that it is important to first discuss issues that are relatively easy for the two sides to agree upon. If Olmert's proposal is accepted by the Palestinians, the two sides will begin negotiations on the characteristics of the Palestinian state, its official institutions, its economy, and the customs arrangement it will have with Israel.

According to the report, such agreement would offer Abbas and Olmert political gains of the domestic front, and the Palestinian leader would be able to use it as part of his reelection campaign. According to surveys, the Israeli public is overwhelmingly supportive of a two-state solution, and that the current balance of power in the Knesset will allow him to rally a firm majority of 82 MKs behind such an agreement.

Another peace plan that will be under the spotlight on Wednesday is the Saudi initiative. Foreign Ministers Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Abdelelah Al Khatib, of Egypt and Jordan respectively, are due to arrive in Israel on Wednesday afternoon for talks with Olmert and Livni.

Before leaving for Israel, Aboul Gheit struck an optimistic tone, saying that other Arab countries might want to make diplomatic contacts with Israel. Although the two foreign ministers have denied that they represent the Arab League, this is the first trip to Israel by members of the Arab League working group that was set up in April to hold contacts with Israel on the initiative and as such is seen as historic.

"We hope that upon our return, we would also convey to the Arab League the responses of Israel and I hope that the responses will be positive," Egypt's foreign minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said at a news conference.

The prime minister's spokeswoman Miri Eisin said that Israel hopes the visit will lead to broader talks on the Arab peace initiative. She called the visit an important step because it showed that both sides were willing to respond positively to the initiative without having to agree to every element up front.

The two ministers' first meeting, however, may well have brought them back down to earth with a bump. According to Israel Radio, they met with Likud leader and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told them that, if reelected, he would reject the Saudi initiative.

'The withdrawal from Gaza two years ago proved that any Israeli withdrawal, particularly a unilateral one, does not advance peace but establishes a terror base for radical Islam. I am in favor of economic cooperation and the promotion of regional initiatives - economy will be leverage for peace,' Netanyahu said.

Finally, The Jerusalem Post reports on its front page that the Winograd Committee, which is examining the handling of last summer's war in Lebanon, will address the question of whether the Israel Defense Forces committed war crimes during the 33-day conflict.

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