Today's Situation

SIGN OF LIFE, June 26, 2007

The four-way Sharm el-Sheikh summit, attended by the leaders of Israel, Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, was overshadowed yesterday by publication of an audio tape of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by his Hamas captors.

In the tape, Shalit reads a statement that was clearly translated from Arabic and written for him, in which he blasts the Israeli government and army for neglecting him. The text of the message - either in full or extracts from it - appears on the front page of all Israeli newspapers on Tuesday morning.

Most Israeli commentators see this first sign of life from Shalit as an equally loud distress signal from Hamas. Haaretz's Avi Issacharoff, for example, says that organization - isolated in the Arab world since it forcibly took control of the Gaza Strip earlier this month - was desperately seeking to break the impasse in negotiations for a prisoner exchange deal. To this end, it used the anniversary of Shalit's capture to increase pressure on Israel to find a settlement to the crisis, by tugging on the heartstrings of the Israeli public. In Yedioth Ahronoth, Prof. Ariel Merari adds that Shalit's claim that he needs urgent medical treatment is to be view in a similar light.

Israel Radio reports Tuesday that Intelligence officials have determined that the audio tape is authentic and that it was recorded recently.

Within hours of publication of the tape, Channel 2 Amnon Abramovich reported that a prisoner-exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas is almost a done deal. According to this report, Israel is to release 350 Hamas members currently being held in Israeli jails, 250 of whom are to be released when Shalit is transferred into Egyptian hands, and 100 more are to be released when he reaches Israel.

Abramovich said the major sticking point is the fact that Hamas' list of prisoners it wants freed includes prisoners Israel will have an exceptionally hard time releasing, despite Israel's willingness to be flexible.

According to Maariv, a senior official in the Prime Minister's Office said Monday the release of the tape would not change Israel's policy regarding Hamas. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert listened to the tape prior to his departure for Sharm el-Sheikh. The official, who accompanied Olmert to the summit, said 'the prime minister has no doubt that the text was dictated to Gilad Shalit by Hamas.'

In sharp contrast to Israel's continued hard-line rhetorical vis-à-vis Hamas, Olmert used his speech at the Sharm summit to announce a series of gestures to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, the headline of which is the release of 250 Fateh prisoners currently being held in Israeli prisons.

Olmert also promised to 'substantially improve freedom of movement of the Palestinian population in the West Bank.' He said the government will reopen trade ties with the territories and that he wanted to show the Palestinians that 'choosing the path of no terror or violence, the way of peace and dialogue, will bring a better, more comfortable, more peaceful life.'

Olmert added that he currently sees a chance to 'seriously' move the diplomatic process forward. 'A Palestinian leadership which recognizes Israel, rejects terror and violence as a means and as an end, is a government we recognize,' he said.

Olmert also said that he expects to renew his bi-weekly meetings with Abbas. The two leaders earlier this year agreed to a proposal by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to confer face-to-face every two weeks, but turmoil in both the PA and the Israeli government upset the schedule.

The prime minister said they will meet 'to create the necessary political horizon and the appropriate conditions which will lead, as soon as possible, to discussions on the establishment of a Palestinian state, which will live beside us in peace and security.'

According to the website of Maariv, nrg.co.il, Olmert also informed Abbas that Israel is willing to supply his Fateh organization with arms. According to the report, Olmert has already given his word to Egyptian President Mubarak that 'Israel would be willing to transfer weapons to Fateh, subject to recommendations by US General Keith Dayton who is in charge of this matter.'

Olmert immediately came under attack for his decision to free Fateh prisoners, with Knesset members on the right particularly virulent in their condemnation. Arye Eldad (National Union-National Religious Party) said that at the Sharm summit, Olmert was forced into the Pavlovian response of releasing prisoners and rewarding terror.

Likud faction head Gidon Sa'ar said the prime minister's intention to free the prisoners without anything in return will not bring a brighter future but rather the exact opposite: a further weakening of Israel and resurgence in terrorism.

MK Yuli Edelstein (Likud) said that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's speech showed that Olmert 'has forgotten which state he heads and which people's interests he is supposed to take care of. He gave precedence to the Palestinian's suffering,' Edelstein added, 'instead of making it clear to Abu Mazin that in order to receive gestures from Israel he needs to act towards a true eradication of terror.'

Meretz leader Yossi Beilin, meanwhile, told Channel 10 that 'Olmert made a courageous start with his agreement to carry out confidence-building measures to prop up Abbas' government. If Olmert is actually prepared to take the steps he has outlined, it will be a brave move.'

Meanwhile, Haaretz reports on comments made Tuesday by a senior Israeli official, quoted on Israel Radio, who said that Israel should consider revising its policy of arresting wanted Fateh militants if Fateh stops receiving funding from Iran and refrains from attacking Israel. The radio reported that the official said Fateh's militants, including the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, have become the most resolute armed force in the struggle against Hamas. The official added that Israel should consider a policy change that would enable wanted Fateh militants to come out of hiding and openly join the ranks of Abbas' security forces.

In the meantime, two Qassam rockets hit Sderot in Tuesday morning, Army Radio reports. There were no injuries, but one of the rockets slammed into a school yard and damaged a nearby building. The second rocket exploded in an open field at Kibbutz Nir Am.

Finally, all the Israeli press reports on the expected appointment of outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair as special Quartet envoy to the Middle East. According to reports in Israel and abroad, Blair will work out of a Jerusalem office, and The Guardian reports that his 'primary goal will be to prepare the Palestinians for negotiations with Israel ... largely by focusing on security, economy and governance'.'

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