Today's Situation

PERES WINS, FATEH LOSES, June 14, 2007

At 83, Vice Premier Shimon Peres has finally managed to end a succession of political losses, as he became Israel's number one citizen; its president elect. Peres is the lead story in all three of the leading Hebrew-language dailies, with all the top commentators scrambling for space in the paper. All of the commentators expect Peres to be a statesmanlike president and nearly all welcome his election.

Another recent winner, elected Labor chair Ehud Barak, is now in the process of figuring out how to make the best of his electoral victory. According to Maariv, his associates say he intends to drive a hard bargain in his negotiations with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, before he joins his cabinet - probably as defense minister.

Both Yedioth Ahronoth and Maariv report that Peres managed to secure a significant lead right from the first round of the presidential elections, which were held yesterday in the Knesset in Jerusalem. 37 of Israel's 120 MKs voted for Peres' rival from the Likud, Reuven Rivlin, and Labor's Colette Avital received 21 votes. After the results came in, both of Peres' rivals decided to drop from the race, and called for their fellow MKs to support Peres' candidacy. 86 MKs voted in favor of Kadima's candidate, with 23 voting against.

Speaking at the Knesset after the final round of voting, the beaming 83-year-old thanked his family and the lawmakers who supported him and pledged to "give my all to serve Israel." He will be sworn into office on July 15 as Israel's 9th president, for a seven-year term, replacing the disgraced Moshe Katsav, who faces multiple allegations of sexual assault against female staffers.

Another political veteran savoring his victory is the newly-elected Labor Chair, Ehud Barak, who beat MK Ami Ayalon on Tuesday in the Labor primaries. Barak, a retired chief-of-staff, is now expected to replace Amir Peretz in the defense ministry. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, decision makers in the defense establishment believe Barak will not interfere with the reform process that Chief-of-Staff Gabi Ashkenazi is in the process of implementing. The sources note that Barak's term in office is expected to be too short for him to influence long-term processes.

Maariv reports that Barak intends to clinch a better and improved deal with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Kadima, with which Labor shares power. According to the paper, Barak is seeking to negotiate a final date for elections in return for staying in the coalition with Kadima. Sources put this date at around June 2008. In addition, Barak is reportedly interested in forming a cross-party alliance with his two primary rivals in Labor: Ayalon and Peretz. Sources close to Barak are quoted as saying that "he does not know whether this is possible."  The news-site Ynet quotes Olmert's associates as countering by saying that Kadima can survive in power even if Barak pulls out of the coalition.

Following Ehud Barak's victory in the Labor primaries, Maariv commissioned an opinion poll on Barak's chances of being elected prime minister. According to the poll, if elections were held today, Olmert would receive 11 seats. Barak would receive 29, just one seat less than Likud Chair Benjamin Netanyahu's 30. This, combined with Likud presidential aspirant Reuven Rivlin's loss to Peres yesterday, convinced Maariv's Nadav Eyal that the latest political developments have put Netanyahu in a difficult position.

Israel Radio reports that Barak is due to meet with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert later Thursday, for his first briefing on the situation in Gaza as Labor chairman.

All eyes will be on Ramallah, meanwhile, for what is expected to be a dramatic speech by Abbas. At least three dozen people have died in violence between Hamas and Fateh in the past 24 hours alone, and it is likely that Abbas is going to announce the end of the national unity government that was brokered by Saudi Arabia earlier this year.

Hamas is reportedly tightening its grip on the entire Gaza Strip, after mounting what appears to be a successful albeit bloody coup

Informed sources say Fateh has lost control, but others report that Palestinian Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Fateh leader is in the process of mounting retaliatory measures to gain the upper hand

Fateh forces are said to be holding only two strongholds in Gaza -- the presidential compound and the preventive security headquarters. The national security chief has called on Fateh forces, now surrounded by Hamas gunmen to fight, until their last drop of blood.

Hamas has rejected the appeal from Abbas for a ceasefire. Negotiations are now underway to get thousands of Fateh gunmen holed up in the compound to surrender.

Abbas spoke by phone to exiled political leader Khaled Mish'al of Hamas to find ways of ending the conflict. He demanded that Mish'al order Hamas gunmen to stop the fighting.

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