Today's Situation

FROM KINGMAKER TO DEAL-BREAKER , May 30, 2007

Amir Peretz's brief spell as Labor kingmaker came crashing to an end on Wednesday morning, the day after he came in a distant third - behind Ehud Barak and Ami Ayalon - in the party's five-way leadership election.

For 24 hours, Peretz reveled in the idea that his supporters, known for their loyalty and their obedience, could hold the balance of power when the party votes again in a run-off in two weeks. And his aides were quick to whisper in the ears of any journalist who would listen about the contacts that were already underway between Peretz and Ayalon, and, inevitably, between Peretz and Barak, too.

There were rumors that Peretz was demanding a guarantee of the Number 2 spot on the party's list of candidates for the next election and a key welfare-related ministry (or perhaps even the treasury) in exchange for his support in the run-off.

All of that ended on Wednesday morning, however, with publication in Maariv of a rather bitter pill for Peretz to swallow: instead of pushing one or other of the candidates into a significant lead over the other, a public declaration of from the outgoing chairman merely weakens the recipient.

The Maariv poll shows that, without Peretz's support, Ehud Barak would garner 42.2 percent in the run-off poll, while Ami Ayalon would gain 44.3 percent. If either candidate were to 'enjoy' the support of Peretz, however, their support would drop to 39.5 percent and 40.3 percent respectively. In its lead headline, Haaretz says that Barak aides have strenuously denied that any deal with Peretz is in the pipes, while Yedioth Ahronoth leads with a quote from the would-be kingmaker, who claims that his will be the decisive factor in the run-off, but adds that neither the Barak camp nor the Ayalon camp is very keen on making any deals.

The Jerusalem Post claims in its lead headline that Peretz will throw his weight behind Ayalon early next week, although suggestions that this may backfire on the candidate could lead to a change in plans.

Away from the Labor election, Israel Radio report Wednesday that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are scheduled to meet on June 7 - possibly in Jericho - to renew the biweekly meetings that they promised to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Since making that promise in March, the two leaders have met only once.

The announcement of the planned meeting comes as Olmert is due to convene his security cabinet later Wednesday to discuss the ongoing missile attacks against Sderot and the western Negev and Israel's response to these attacks. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, over 250 missiles have been fired since May 15, killing two people, injuring dozens more and causing billions of shekels of direct and indirect economic damage.

Haaretz says that the cabinet is expected to discuss the conditions under which Israel would agree to a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. A source in Jerusalem told the paper that Hamas is under increasing pressure because of the number of Palestinian casualties in the Strip and arrests in the West Bank. The source also said Hamas and Islamic Jihad were finding it difficult to launch Qassams because of Israel's military actions, and the number of launches has been falling as a result.

According to The Jerusalem Post - quoting a report in The Guardian - Hamas' exiled political leader Khaled Mish'al said Tuesday that rocket attacks against Israel would continue and warned that the efforts of the international community to pressure his organization would cause an explosion that would affect the entire Middle East. Mish'al blamed 'negative foreign intervention, especially by the US and Israel,' for the tensions between Hamas and Fateh.

Israel Radio, meanwhile, reports that a Hamas spokesman in Gaza claimed Wednesday that a shipment of arms - including Kalashnikov rifles and ammunition, as well as several armored vehicles - has recently been delivered to Fateh strongman Mohammed Dahlan. Hamas claimed that the shipment was brought into Gaza via the Rafah crossing - the implication being that it was done with the approval of Egypt, Israel and, presumably, the United States.

Elsewhere, Haaretz reports on a diplomatic initiative spearheaded by Meretz lawmakers Zahava Gal-On and Avshalom Vilan, according to which control of the Gaza Strip would be handed over to an force comprised of representative of the Arab League and the European Union. According to Haaretz, the plan has already been presented to Palestinian leaders and Western diplomats, and will be presented to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni some time next week.

Finally, the prime minister spoke to the Knesset about the findings of the Winograd Committee for the first time on Tuesday, telling lawmakers that the Second Lebanon War had restored quiet to Israel's northern border and had been necessary under the circumstances. Responding to Olmert's speech, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu used to opportunity to renew his call for Olmert to step down, saying that his mishandling of the war had severely damaged Israel's deterrence capabilities.

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