Today's Situation

LABOR PAINS , May 29, 2007

The inconclusive outcome of yesterday's Labor leadership election leaves Israeli politics in a state of high tension ahead of the run-off between Ehud Barak and Ami Ayalon on June 12.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is on tenterhooks because the future of his government depends, to some extent, on the identity of the man who replaces Amir Peretz as Labor chairman. Barak, who took 35.6 percent of the vote, has stated that he would not pull Labor out of the coalition, but would consider it a transition government, serving only until a date is agreed for early elections. Ayalon, who came in second with 30.6 percent, has stated quite clearly that he would join the government, but would try to cajole Kadima into replacing Olmert as its leader.

No matter who wins, the loser is Amir Peretz, who garnered a mere 17 percent of the votes and ends his year-long tenure as defense minister under a cloud of public disapprobation.

Peretz now goes from ousted leader to potential kingmaker. He knows that he can extract a promise of a plum position in the government from whichever candidate wants his support in the run-off. According to Ynet, sources close to Barak say that he will start contacts with Peretz immediately in an effort to form an anti-Ayalon alliance. Ynet also reports that Peretz told a closed meeting of aides that he still has a strong camp of supporters able to create change within the party. 'My camp is an obedient one that will go in the direction I will choose,' he said.

Away from the Labor primaries, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas appealed late Monday to militant groups to halt their attacks on Israel –urging them to accept his plan for renewing a cease-fire even if Israel is cool to the idea.

Palestinian groups have said there can be no truce if Israel keeps up its attacks and refuses to extend any ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to the West Bank. But in an interview with the Associated Press, Abbas said the militants should take the first step and halt rocket fire for a month to allow for negotiations on a more comprehensive truce that would include the West Bank.

There was no let up, meanwhile, in the number of Qassam attacks against Israeli targets in the western Negev which started over two weeks ago and have killed two people. On Monday, almost two dozen rockets fell in the area – one of them scoring a direct hit on a Sderot house – but failed to do any damage or cause injury.

Also Monday, the air force fired missiles at a building used by Hamas in Beit Hanun in the northern Gaza Strip, after a 24-hour lapse in air strikes. There were no immediate reports of casualties. In the southern Gaza Strip, however, Israel Radio reports that a small IDF force killed two wanted gunmen during a brief incursion. The Palestinians confirmed that two Hamas members had been killed. The force left the Strip by Tuesday morning.

According to Maariv, Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has taken Israel's warnings that it will hit Hamas leaders who support terror to heart - and his gone underground to avoid assassination. The paper says that Haniyeh's whereabouts are known only to a handful of his most trusted aides.

Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit of Egypt, meanwhile, has called Israel's use of force excessive and demanded the Israeli side immediately halt all of its military operations in the Gaza Strip. He also emphasized the necessity of stopping the launching of Palestinian rockets. The foreign minister called them a pretext for Israeli troops to carry out more military operations. Aboul Gheit urged both Israelis and Palestinians to end the recent cycle of violence that has left dead and wounded on both sides. He made the statement following a meeting Monday with senior Fateh officials. Their talks focused on the security situation in the Palestinian territories. The Egyptians have been holding talks with Fateh and Hamas in an attempt to end the infighting between the two organizations.

In the West Bank, meanwhile, the Shin Bet arrested Khaled Shwish, the head of the Tanzim in Ramallah on Monday. He is alleged to have been involved in the killing of eight Israelis, among them the son and daughter-in-law of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, and wounding dozens more in terror attacks. He was also involved in the manufacture of explosive belts, the planning of suicide attacks and attempts to kidnap Israeli citizens and soldiers.

Cabinet minister Rafi Eitan, meanwhile, told Army Radio that fighting between Israel and the Palestinians could end with the deployment of a foreign peacekeeping mission - in an echo of a plan being touted by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Eitan said the fighting in and around the Gaza Strip could prompt intervention like the UN force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) following last summer's war in the north. He added that the same thing, sooner or later will happen in the Gaza Strip with the senior partner in such a force being Egypt because it has no choice. The President of the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pottering, in an interview with Haaretz's Akiva Elder, adds weight to this possibility, when he says that the European Union has not ruled out sending troops to the Egypt-Gaza border, or even inside Gaza itself, as part of a United Nations delegation.

In other news, the prime minister faces an embarrassing session in the Knesset today, where he will be forced to explain his response to the Winograd Committee's interim report in a session entitled, 'The Prime Minister's Refusal to Surrender his Position Following the Winograd Report.' Olmert has, until now, avoided offering an explanation to the Knesset, where outbursts and recriminations are a part of most addresses.  Forty lawmakers signed a petition forcing Olmert to answer questions regarding his decision to stay in power following the damning report.

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