Today's Situation

ON THE BRINK OF CIVIL WAR, December 18, 2006

Just as it seemed that the inter-factional Palestinian violence was on the verge of deteriorating into a bloody civil war, representatives of the Higher Follow-Up Committee of the Palestinian National and Islamic factions gathered late Sunday to announce a ceasefire that they hoped would bring two days of fierce clashes to an end.

The recent upsurge in violence was inflamed on Saturday when Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called in a television address for fresh presidential and parliamentary elections, what was seen as a dramatic challenge to the ruling Hamas faction. On Sunday, Abbas met with officials from the Palestinian Central Election Commission.

PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh responded by saying that his Hamas faction would not participate in fresh elections, and branded Abbas' remarks on the matter 'inflammatory.'

'The Palestinian government rejects the call for holding early parliamentary elections because it is not constitutional and may lead to a large disturbance in the Palestinian territory,' Haniyeh told cabinet members.

According to Palestinian sources, the eight-point agreement, which sought to end a weekend of sporadic clashes and at least four deaths, was brokered by Islamic Jihad and the Democratic and Popular Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine. The main points of the agreement included an immediate end to the violence, the withdrawal of armed militants from the streets of Gaza, a halt to public shows of strength and the return of official PA security forces to their positions.

Even as the announcement was being made on the steps of the Ramattan News Agency in Gaza City, however, there were reports of sporadic clashes in the streets of the Strip. According to Haaretz, gunfire could still be heard near Abbas' offices in Gaza City and witnesses said that a major gun battle was being waged near Fateh official Mohammed Dahlan's house in Gaza.

In an interview with Israel Radio on Monday morning, Fateh-affiliated Minister of Prisoner Affairs Sufian Abu Zaida said the ceasefire was not being fully honored, but the level of violence had decreased. Abu Zaida warned that if the various PA factions didn't reach an agreement soon on elections, a 'river of blood' would flow.

According to The Jerusalem Post, however, a 16-year-old boy was shot in the neck in renewed gun battles in the middle of Gaza City. About 10 masked Hamas gunmen, with rifles, grenades and rocket launchers, took shelter behind walls in downtown Gaza as they fought a dozen other gunmen from Fateh, witnesses said.

While the violence continued in Gaza, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who flew in to Israel from Iraq on Sunday night, was meeting with Abbas in Ramallah. According to both Yedioth Ahronoth and Haaretz, the purpose of Blair's visit is transparent: to bolster Abbas. Speaking after talks with Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, Blair called on the international community to back Abbas . 'I think President Abbas has given important leadership here and it really will be a major strategic opportunity missed for all of us, not just in the region but outside, if we don't get behind him and back him now.'

Blair is slated to meet later with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Amir Peretz. According to Haaretz, the resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the building of government institutions that could function in a future Palestinian state will be at the center of Blair's meetings with Israeli officials.

According to Maariv, Abbas is likely to ask Blair to increase aid to the Palestinian Authority, with special emphasis on helping bolster the Presidential Guard, in accordance with the Dayton plan.

Elsewhere in the news, Israel's relations with another of its neighbors - Syria - are back in the headlines, after both President Bashar Assad and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem called on Israel to renew talks with Damascus.

In an interview with Italian daily La Repubblica, Assad addressed Olmert directly, saying, 'make an attempt. Call our bluff. The Syrian people are united on this: Reach peace to get back our lands.'

Muallem, meanwhile, told The Washington Post that Syria has no preconditions to negotiations with Israel, not even regarding the Golan Heights. In an interview in Damascus, Moallem told columnist David Ignatius, 'A constructive dialogue has to start without preconditions.'

The Israeli leadership was mixed in how to respond to the overtures. At a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on Sunday, Olmert, backed by Shimon Peres, expressed reservations about the Syrians' motives and added that Israel should not accept the Syrian invitation at this time, and certainly not as long as President Bush, 'the most important strategic ally of Israel, opposes any negotiations with Syria.'

Amir Peretz countered that Israel should urgently discuss the possibility of reopening a dialog with Syria, arguing that 'disassociating Syria from the radical axis, and from its ties with Hizbollah, is of the utmost strategic importance.'

On Monday, Labor lawmaker and former Mossad director told Israel Radio that Israel should take Syria up on its offer to hold diplomatic talks. Yatom said he believed the United States would, eventually, talk with Syria, and expressed concern that Israel would miss an opportunity for peace. Zvulun Orlev of the rightist National Union, on the other hand, called Syria's offer to renew talks with Israel a 'honey trap' and said that Syria was trying to exploit the weakness of Israel's government following the Lebanon war.

The above text was written and compiled by Simon Spungin using newpaper, radio and wire reports, in English and Hebrew.

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