Today's Situation

A FLURRY OF ACTIVITY, November 30, 2006

With the ceasefire between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip apparently holding, and a one-day national strike brought to an end by a court order, attention is now focused firmly on diplomatic activity ahead of the weekend, with Israeli, Egyptian, American, Jordanian and Iraqi leaders all involved in talks with the other parties.

There were mixed interpretations of the meetings held yesterday by Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, who has been acting as an intermediary between Israel and the Palestinian groups holding captured IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.

Maariv, quoting unnamed sources in Jerusalem, says that Suleiman estimated that a deal could be finalized within three weeks. The paper also says that two cabinet ministers involved in the talks have admitted that 'Israel will have no choice but to free terrorists with blood on their hands.'

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, there was no breakthrough in the meeting on Wednesday evening between Suleiman and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Nonetheless, the paper reports, 'Olmert summed up by saying that the meeting was positive and very encouraging.'

Earlier, Suleiman met with Defense Minister Amir Peretz, Minister for Strategic Affairs Avigdor Lieberman, and National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer.

Haaretz reports that 'one of the issues preventing faster progress on prisoner exchange is the large number of Palestinians Hamas would like to see released before an agreement is reached.' Indeed, Ynet, citing a report in London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Hayat, claims that Hamas is demanding that jailed Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti be at the top of the list of Palestinian prisoners who will be freed as part of a deal for the release Shalit.

Haaretz adds that 'another key problem Israel raised with Suleiman is the continued smuggling of weapons and explosives from Sinai. Intelligence officials presented the visiting Egyptian official with data on the extent of the smuggling.'

Meanwhile, Arab media reported that the Egyptian official is expected to meet with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshal in the coming days, in order to update him on meetings he held with senior Israeli officials.

In a possibly related development, Israel yesterday freed one of the Hamas legislators arrested in response to Shalit's abduction. The Prime Minister's Office merely confirmed that Palestinian Authority Public Works and Housing Minister, Abdel-Rahman Zidan, had been released on orders the orders of a military court.

The flurry of diplomatic activity will continue today, with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice slated to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Jericho and Olmert in Jerusalem.

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel will use the meeting between Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Rice to present 'plans and updates for a continuation of the dialogue that would strengthen the ceasefire and allow for renewed contacts with the Palestinian unity government. The PM and foreign minister would present to the U.S. official the gestures made by Israel that have contributed to the warming in relations, and were expected to clarify to Rice that Israel intended to exercise restraint in Gaza, despite the continuation of Qassam fire in recent days.'

Haaretz, citing sources in Jerusalem, claims that Israel is expecting Rice to ask Olmert to help Abbas by alleviating the siege on the Gaza Strip and removing non-essential roadblocks in the West Bank.

The paper says that this comes against the backdrop of a soon-to-be-released United Nations report which accuses Israel of violating every single clause of the border crossing agreement signed by the U.S., Israel and the PA after Israel's pullout from Gaza last year.

The Jerusalem Post, meanwhile, reports that 'U.S. officials say they do not expect Rice to walk away with a long-term peace deal between the two sides. But her trip throws notable U.S. weight behind a cease-fire announced last weekend and bolsters the hope of renewed peace talks.' The paper goes on to quote a State Department official as saying that 'the United States would like to see the cease-fire extend beyond Gaza to the West Bank. He said Rice's meetings Thursday were intended to press the two sides on their commitment to peace.'

In Amman, meanwhile, U.S. President George W. Bush said, after his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, that 'There is no question that if we were able to settle the Israeli-Palestinian issue it would help bring more peace to the Middle East. Therefore our government is focused on helping develop the two-state solution.'

The above text was written and compiled by Simon Spungin using newpaper, radio and wire reports, in English and Hebrew.

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