Today's Situation

LONG WEEKEND, November 27, 2006

If a week is a long time in politics, in Middle East politics, a weekend is even longer.

On Saturday night, the Prime Minister's Office made a dramatic announcement: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had informed Ehud Olmert that all the Palestinian factions had agreed to halt the Qassam attacks against Israeli targets, in exchange for a cessation to IDF operations in the Gaza Strip.

The cease-fire went into effect at 6 A.M. Sunday and, despite sporadic violations – a total of 11 rockets were fired before noon on Sunday – the truce appears to be holding strong.

Officially, there is cautious optimism on both sides. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is due to address the weekly cabinet meeting – which is being held in Sde Boker to honor the anniversary of the death of David Ben-Gurion – and is expected to make a significant statement. There is speculation that the prime minister will use the opportunity to unveil his plans for a diplomatic initiative with the Palestinians.

Even before the meeting, Defense Minister Amir Peretz told Israel Radio on Monday morning that the cease-fire could lead to changes in many other issues between Israel and the Arab world, including the return of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit and the start of a process that would lead to meaningful negotiations between the sides and mutual recognition.

Peretz added that the cease-fire was the right thing for Israel at this time, but he stressed that Israel does not intend to relinquish its right to defend its citizens. 'When we receive information that the Palestinians are planning to attack us, we will do what we have to do,' he said. Hinting as to a possible Israeli response to violations of the cease, fire Peretz added that Israel could no longer examine which organization was responsible for any rocket fired.

On the Palestinian side, Israel Radio reports that Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh convened heads of the various factions in his Gaza headquarters on Sunday night, to discuss the truce with Israel. According to the radio, they agreed to seek ways of expanding the cease-fire to the West Bank. They also decided to act in unison in the event of an Israeli violation of the truce.

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat told Army Radio on Monday that he hopes 'we are going to move in the next two days to have similar arrangements in the West Bank.' Erekat also said that Abbas may meet with George W. Bush when the U.S. president visits Jordan on Wednesday.

Voice of Palestine Radio, meanwhile, was quoted by Israel Radio on Monday as reporting that Olmert and Abbas would meet instead with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who will accompany Bush to the conference on democracy and development called by King Abdullah.

Entering into the spirit of optimism, Britain has made an offer to Israel and to the PA to deploy supervisors on the Gaza-Israel border to ensure that the ceasefire is upheld, The Jerusalem Post reports on Monday, citing Palestinian media.

There were, however, dissenting voices to be heard on both sides.

On the Israeli right, there were who attacked Olmert and warned that the militant organizations would take advantage of this hiatus to grow stronger in preparation for a renewal of violent operations against Israel. Former foreign minister Silvan Shalom told Channel 1 news that 'the cease-fire reminds me of [UN] Resolution 1701. We are playing make believe. The cease-fire is imaginary. It will give Hamas time to get reorganized.'

The chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yuval Steinitz, called on the government to rescind its agreement to a cease-fire. 'Israel is missing a golden opportunity to carry out a Defensive Shield 2 in the Gaza Strip, and is in essence enabling the creation of a threat, Hezbollah-style, in the south of the country.'

On the Palestinian side, Ynet reports that Islamic Jihad called Monday on Palestinian factions to reject the ceasefire. Sheikh Mohammad Saadi, the head of the Islamic Jihad in Jenin, says the ceasefire should be abolished because it doesn't apply to the West Bank and therefore allows Israel to continue its military operations against armed groups there.

Indeed, two Palestinians were reportedly killed in an IDF operation in Jenin on Monday morning. According to Haaretz, Israeli troops shot dead at least one member of a militant group with ties to Gaza's Popular Resistance Committees, raising concerns that there could be a violent response from the Strip. While the army said it had shot dead two armed Palestinians, sources in the West Bank identified the fatalities as 22-year-old Abdel Razek Bahar, a key militant within the Popular Resistance Committees, and 55-year-old Fatma Nezal. An official from the local Salah A-Din Committees group said that one of the dead was a local militant leader, while the other was a woman passer-by. Palestinian security sources said it was unclear if the dead woman had been armed.

According to Haaretz, the defense establishment is also unhappy with the cease-fire. Amos Harel reports that, 'there is a great deal of skepticism about the agreement in army circles, and particularly at IDF Southern Command. Senior officers have warned that without enforcement and an end to the smuggling of weapons through tunnels from Sinai to Rafah, the cease-fire is a dangerous development. The officers maintain that Hamas is making enormous efforts to arm itself. They add that when the organization thinks it is ready, its members will resume the violence and then its military capabilities will pose a greater threat to IDF troops.'

The above text was written and compiled by Simon Spungin using newpaper, radio and wire reports, in English and Hebrew.

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