Today's Situation

PERETZ WOBBLING, November 24, 2006

There was growing agreement Friday that Defense Minister Amir Peretz will not remain in his post for much longer.

Facing growing pressure from within his own party, which sees him as an electoral vote-loser, and from the public at large, Peretz remains steadfast in his refusal to step down - even though the media is rife with reports of deals that would see the Labor leader moved from Defense to some other ministry.

In the latest such report, Channel 2 reported on Thursday evening that Peretz was demanding the finance portfolio in exchange for leaving the Defense Ministry quietly - something that both he and the PM's bureau vehemently denied.

Peretz's office even went so far as to issue a statement, in which they insisted that 'Peretz is continuing to do his job as defense minister, and no other idea is on the agenda.'

According to Haaretz, however, senior Labor officials believe Peretz will have to find some dignified way to leave the ministry, otherwise Olmert is liable to wait for an opportune moment - perhaps if United Torah Judaism joins the coalition - and then fire Peretz, confident that other Labor ministers would not resign in protest if the coalition could survive without them.

According to The Jerusalem Post, however, Olmert and Peretz may have to continue working together until at least the May Labor leadership primary, after Olmert failed to pressure Peretz to leave the ministry for a socioeconomic portfolio, a source close to Olmert said on Thursday.

Most of the pressure on Peretz, however, is not from his colleagues in the political arena, but from the public. According to a poll published today in Maariv daily, 78 percent of respondents believe Peretz should resign, compared to only 17 per cent who said "no" when asked whether they thought he should step down.

Polls in both Yedioth Ahronoth and Maariv show that the public's favored replacement for Peretz - should he decide to step down - is former defense minister Shaul Mofaz. According to Maariv, one-third of Israelis (one-quarter according to Yedioth Ahronoth) would like to see Mofaz back in the defense ministry.

Surprisingly, only 13 percent of respondents (10 percent in Yedioth Ahronoth) said that they wanted former PM Ehud Barak to fill the post.

According to the Yedioth Ahronoth poll, 72 percent said that Olmert should dismiss him if Peretz fails to resign. The same poll shows that less than half of Israelis believe that a diplomatic solution can end the Qassam attacks on Israeli communities in the western Negev. Thirty percent said Israel should recapture the Gaza Strip and 18 percent said Israel should continue to carry out limited operations against the terror infrastructure in the Strip.

Elsewhere, the poker game over the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit continues. Hamas' politburo chief, Khaled Meshal, is in Cairo for talks with Egyptian intelligence officials, and Shalit's release is one of the issues on the agenda, along with the establishment of a Palestinian unity government and the renewal of a cease-fire with Israel.

Israel Radio reports that Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman asked Meshal to be more flexible over the conditions of a prisoner exchange deal, but adds that Hamas has now increased the number of Palestinian prisoners it wants released to 1,400. In addition, Army Radio reported that the Palestinians are demanding that some of their prisoners are freed even before Shalit is released - something that Israel is unlikely to agree to.

According to Army Radio, Suleiman is due to visit Israel next week, to brief Israeli leaders on progress in the talks with Hamas and the other Palestinian factions.

Israel Radio also reports that the Palestinians have told Israel that they would be willing to halt rocket attacks against the western Negev in exchange for a cessation of 'Israeli aggression' in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. According to the report, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine asked Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh to pass their offer on to Israel, via President Abbas.

Israel was quick to reject the offer, however, with spokeswoman Miri Eisin telling French news agency AFP that, 'Israel will continue to defend its citizens against the rockets and will only stop its actions once those who fire, store and make the rockets and those who smuggle in their components cease their actions.'

Abbas himself, meanwhile, condemned the continued rocket attacks against Israel. At a meeting with members of his Fateh faction Gaza last night, Abbas said that the attacks provide Israel with an excuse to continue their 'barbaric attacks' against the Palestinian people.

Elsewhere, Haaretz reports that former senior Military Intelligence officer Dr. Yossi Ben Ari said this week he believes Israel should try to reach a rapid peace agreement with Syria. Ben Ari argues that Syrian president Bashar Assad and the Syrian military exploited the war in Lebanon to draw the conclusion that rocket and missile arsenals are the most important component in a conflict with Israel. Ben Ari will speak about his conclusions at a conference Sunday, when the complete results of a Market Watch poll on Israeli opinion about talks with Syria will also be released.

Partial survey results released Wednesday indicate that more than half of Israelis would like to see Israel engage in negotiations with Syria, but are unprepared to withdraw from the Golan Heights as a price for peace. Fifty-seven percent of 499 respondents said they supported negotiations, while 54 percent said they could not agree to a Golan withdrawal. Fifty-nine percent said they feared another war would break out in the north unless talks were held.

The above text was written and compiled by Simon Spungin using newpaper, radio and wire reports, in English and Hebrew.

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