Today's Situation

Probes and prisoners Monday, September 18, 2006

Yesterday, he finally managed to win cabinet approval -- by a 20-2 majority -- for a panel he handpicked. But to win that approval he had to bend and twist his intended probe into something that most lawyers now admit is a hair’s breadth different from a judicial inquiry. Eliahu Winograd’s panel, with its two (not very charismatic) ex-generals and its two university professors (one of whom specialized in the policies of rogue ‘mad’ states, the other a former head of the Civil Rights Association who has turned Rightward to the vague Center), has the powers to hand out immunity to those who testify, can subpoena documents, and can issue warnings to those who testify that they might be harmed by its findings. Just like a commission headed by a Supreme Court justice. But there lies the rub. The one key difference is the aura of independence enjoyed by a Supreme Court justice, picking his or her own panel, an independence that the Winograd committee will not appear to have no matter how much Olmert’s cabinet secretary says it will be independent.

Olmert seems completely oblivious to this argument, which is being made daily now in all the newspapers and on all the TV news programs. Instead, as if to further dig himself a hole, he is clashing with State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss. Attorney General Menachem Mazuz, apparently acting at Olmert’s behest, has informed the comptroller that his investigation into the war should not cover any of those areas being covered by Winograd’s panel. Lindenstrauss regards his position as independent of the executive branch and he is extremely jealous of his powers. Olmert does not want two investigations calling him, the defense minister, the chief of staff, division, brigade and battalion commanders, as well as mayors and others responsible for the war’s management or the management of the home front during the war. Two probes will inevitably come up with different conclusions, which will require a third probe -- by a Supreme Court justice. But Olmert may have another reason for wanting the comptroller’s wings clipped -- he is convinced Lindenstrauss is after him, conducting inquiry after inquiry into mysterious real estate deals that have netted Olmert’s family hundreds of thousands of dollars during his political career.

Of course, Olmert’s real problem is that he lacks any political agenda, any direction to offer the public to replace the ‘convergence/realignment’ plan to unilaterally withdraw from much of the West Bank, a plan that Olmert says the Lebanon War removed from the national agenda. He has obviously not drawn the conclusion that Israel should take an opposite tack from the one it has taken for the last six years -- he and his foreign minister are working very hard to prevent, if they can, international recognition of a Palestinian national unity government, a Hamas-Fateh coalition that presumably was going to finally breach the international embargo against the Hamas regime.

The U.S. has apparently fallen into line with the Israeli position (unless it was Israel falling into line with the U.S. position) that says that without an explicit recognition of Israel, a denunciation of violence, and a Palestinian government acceptance of all previous agreements signed by the PLO and the Palestinian Authority, there will be no American recognition of the Hamas-Fateh coalition. According to the Israeli press this morning, most notably Yedioth Aharonoth, PA President Mahmoud Abbas has been summoned to the White House to be dressed down by President Bush and his secretary of state Condoleezza Rice for even considering a coalition deal with Hamas that does not include meeting those three conditions. Abbas has meanwhile frozen the national unity government plan, saying that he can’t move ahead with a Hamas government that continues to deny what it agrees to behind closed doors.

The national unity problem worries Israel, not because it is going to have an impact on whether it engages the Palestinians in political dialogue -- something that does not seem likely in the near future -- but because it might have an impact on the negotiations to free Gilad Shalit, the abducted Israeli corporal held by Hamas’ military wing in Gaza, and whose release could have an impact on the release of Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser, abducted by Hizbollah in Lebanon. For the first time in memory, the Arab press is full of reports about the progress being made in the Shalit case and there’s no information in the Israeli press about the shape of the deal, except for quotes from the Arab press. Not that the Arab press has been consistently accurate, with several papers clearly falling into traps of misinformation or disinformation laid by interested parties.

The Israelis keep trying to pour cold water on the reports about an imminent deal. Cabinet Secretary Yisrael Maimon told the press today that reports that a Shalit deal is possible within days are not true, but he seemed to admit that there is progress being made in the negotiations. The Jerusalem Post this morning seemed to think the problem is actually on the Israeli side -- it has not made up its mind which prisoners to release.

It’s in the interests of everyone -- Israel, Abbas, PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniye, Hamas leader in Damascus Khaled Mish’al, that a deal be done. But the struggle right now on the Palestinian side over who will get credit for the deal, which will likely involve the release of hundreds of Palestinians from Israeli prisons. Israel wants Abbas to benefit, Haniye wants to benefit and so does Mish’al, of course. Israel says it wouldn’t mind Haniye benefiting -- if he accepts the three conditions imposed by the international community on the Hamas government regarding recognition of Israel. One way station on the way to Shalit’s release will be the decision this week by a military court to release 18 Palestinian parliamentarians, including three ministers, who were arrested by Israel after Shalit was abducted. If that happens, it could be the first sign of goodwill between the sides in a long time, and might lead to more steps, presumably including Shalit’s release. But the talk of a Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) release, coinciding with Ramadan, seems to be overly optimistic. Of course, there are six days left until then. And this is the Middle East.

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