Today's Situation

No Olmert-Abbas summit soon Monday, September 11, 2006

But at a weekend press conference with Blair, who appeared to be trying to do what Bill Clinton tried in his last year in office -- knock Israeli and Palestinian heads together -- Olmert suddenly changed his tune. He was ready to meet with Abbas without any prior conditions, saying that perhaps a meeting could help hasten the return of Shalit. Abbas almost immediately responded in kind after her meeting with Blair the next day. Today, Blair was in Beirut, discussing aid to the Siniora government, which is under rhetorical attack from the Hizbollah and Syria, as well as the issue of the two Israeli soldiers whose abduction on July 12 by Hizbollah sparked the 34-day-long war. Meanwhile, new troops for UNIFIL continue to flow to the country and the Lebanese Army continues to consolidate its hold in south Lebanon.

But nobody is holding their breath for an Olmert-Abbas meeting. And the reasons are obvious. First of all, Abbas has yet to persuade the Hamas government to accept the international community’s demand for recognition of past PA agreements with Israel, meaning an implied recognition of Israel, and an end to support for violence for political goals. He can’t even persuade Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh to take the steps toward a national unity government that Blair said would be quickly engaged by the international community. A key reason for Haniyeh’s hesitancy is the inexplicable veto that the Hamas officials based in Damascus have on Haniyeh and his government. Thus, it is Hamas-Damascus that seems to control the three groups holding Shalit.

On the other hand, there are reports that Hamas and Fateh are closer than ever to a national unity deal and it could be sealed within hours or days. Maybe those reports are influenced by the latest public opinion polls among Palestinians, conducted by an A Najah University team: only some 19 percent of Palestinians would vote for a Hamas government now, while some 35 percent would vote Fateh. It is unclear how the remaining voters would go. Fateh would also handily win the presidency in any new elections.

Olmert is believed to be prepared for a generous trade of Palestinian prisoners for Shalit, but politically he feels he can’t make the first step with a gesture of goodwill by releasing any Palestinians before the corporal is returned to Israel. In any case, there are no reports of any moves so far inside the Shin Bet, Justice Ministry and the President’s Residence, where sentences are commuted, in preparation for any releases. Such moves are usually the first indication that a prisoner release is under way. International mediators in the Shalit case continue to be aiming for a Ramadan prisoner release of some kind, but that would mean a Shalit release by the Jewish New Year, less than two weeks away.

An Islamic Army spokesman this morning reportedly told the Arab press that Shalit is in good shape, though he was wounded when captured, and that all his captors speak Hebrew, and all his needs are being met. Abbas, in any case, does not seem to have any power when it comes to the matter of Shalit. He has repeatedly called for the soldier’s release, to no avail.

On the Israeli side, Olmert’s political weakness is no less obvious -- he has seen his numbers crash from an 80 percent approval rating during the war to below 35 percent since the war ended, as the Israeli media decided that the war was mismanaged and the government’s rhetoric about its goals was grossly inflated. Adding to Olmert’s woes today is Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz’s surprise announcement that he now favors a judicial commission of inquiry into the management of the war, as opposed to Olmert’s insistence on a governmental probe headed by a district court judge. The distinction is critical, for it is the difference between a judicial committee with powers of subpoena, the authority to grant immunity, and the power to recommend the firing of anyone, from the prime minister down to the lowliest soldier, and a governmental inquiry that might be able to win the powers of subpoena through legislation, but lacks the kind of popular credibility that makes any such commission’s recommendations resonate.

Mofaz’s move is considered odd, since he was chief of staff and then defense minister from before the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and is inevitably going to be questioned by a judicial panel. He might be gambling that by siding with a judicial commission he is setting in motion a move for an internal Kadima challenge of Olmert, whom he regards as a traitor for stripping Mofaz of the defense ministry in favor of Labor’s inexperienced Defense Minister Amir Peretz, or Mofaz is laying the groundwork for a return to the Likud. Peretz, by the way, favors a judicial commission because he is convinced that it will be Mofaz, not him, who will take the blame for what appeared to be the reservists’ lack of readiness for the fighting.

Olmert so far has a majority in his government in favor of his preferred and relatively toothless governmental commission -- but there are reports this morning that Shas ministers, who so far have sided with Olmert, are considering asking their spiritual patron Rabbi Ovadia Yosef if they can support a judicial commission. If Olmert loses Shas’ votes in favor of the weaker governmental commission, Olmert’s obvious majority becomes much more suspect.

And that’s not the end of his problems with the commission, which he presumably fears because it might criticize his management of the war. A little noticed law in the Basic Law for State Comptroller gives the Knesset State Comptroller’s Committee the authority to ask the Supreme Court’s president to form a judicial inquiry if the state comptroller issues a report suggesting such a commission is necessary. Former district court judge Micha Lindenstrasse, the state comptroller, has made no secret of the fact that his office has been investigating the management of the war, politically and militarily, and the management of the home front, since the opening days of the fighting. Nor has he made a secret of his investigations of Olmert’s real estate dealings in Jerusalem while he was mayor.

Meanwhile, the main political brouhaha today is over the somewhat absurd request to the Knesset House Committee by President Moshe Katsav that he be allowed to suspend himself from his position for two hours -- the very two hours when he ordinarily would be inducting the new president of the Supreme Court, Justice Dorit Beinish, later this week. Katsav is under investigation for coercing former employees to have sex with him, with some of the alleged victims telling police that he used violence to impose his will. Many MKs are wondering why he is ready to suspend himself for two hours, and not until the end of the inquiry. In any case, he is clearly cornered -- he apparently informed the MKs that if he is denied his two hour suspension, he’ll show up for the induction ceremony, which would be an embarrassment to all. The House committee will meet on Wednesday, the induction is on Thursday. Presumably, Katsav won’t attend the induction and Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik will take his place.

In another incident, the visit by a delegation of Balad MKs to Damascus prompted national Union MK Effi Eitam to declare at a memorial service for a soldier killed in Lebanon that the war proved Israel can never give up the West bank and should expel the Arabs of the West Bank and at the same time expel Israeli Arabs from the political arena, because they are a ‘fifth column, a league of traitors.’ Arab MK Ahmed Tibi said that ‘Eitam's remarks would have been more authentic, had they been delivered in German.’ Meretz MK Avshalom Vilan asked Attorney General to investigate whether Eitam’s remarks constitute incitement. Eitam, a former secular kibbutznik turned radical religious Rightist, was a brigadier general who left the army in a huff when it became apparent to him that his political views, which he did not hide in the army, precluded any further advancement for him. He is now vying for the leadership of the National Union bloc against MK Benny Elon, who has taken a low profile since he was diagnosed with throat cancer.

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