Today's Situation

The chicken or the egg Friday, September 08, 2006

True, some 15,000 buildings were damaged, but most required only a patching up with some cinder blocs and plaster. True, some 100,000 mostly poor people seemed left to their own devices in unprepared bomb shelters, but in most local authorities, the local municipality did not cease providing services, and worked around the clock to help those in need. Furthermore, donations by private companies (which won valuable PR for their efforts) and the general public made sure that everyone had food and water, even if the physical conditions in the shelters were intolerable.

But the fact is that 'rehabilitating the north' -- or even, as Olmert has promised, turning it into a Tuscany of the Middle East -- is not a full time job for the next four years. So, there's the army to rehabilitate. There are munitions supplies to be restocked -- it's said that some 150,000 shells and bombs were fired during the month, and the reserve ground forces clearly need some refresher courses. There is a question whether the emphasis on the air force over the ground forces has been the correct policy -- after all, ultimately it is the ground forces that have to deal with the guerillas of south Lebanon or Gaza or the West Bank, goes the thinking. Many still predict that another round with Hizbollah is not merely coming, but it is inevitable. They seem to be the same types who want to prepare for the war that Israel just fought, rather than the one that is on the horizon. On the other hand, there are those who say the only threat to Israel now on the horizon is Iran's nuclear plans -- and the way to defeat that threat is through politics, perhaps, as some are beginning to argue, changing Israel's nuclear ambiguity policy for one that includes inspections, if Iran agrees to the same. Presumably, whatever investigative committee or commission that is established will point out a direction for the military echelon to take -- including reimbuing its 'managerial' class with some of the more traditional values of the IDF's officer corps.

Thus, while the government has its work cut out for it -- if it can survive the political chaos that meanwhile is gripping the entire arena -- it doesn't really have a main thrust or direction right now. Its unilateral 'convergence/realignment' plan seems buried, through it is unclear whether that is because of opposition to unilateralism, to withdrawals, or simply because right now the government, meaning Olmert, doesn't seem to have the gumption or strength to press ahead with it.

So, in the meanwhile, things limp along, sometimes seemingly of their own volition. For example, the huge police station Israel has built between Maale Adumim and Jerusalem, evidently the first step toward filling the area between the eastern suburb of Jerusalem and the Israeli capital with yet another housing complex. The housing ministry has issued tenders for the construction of some 750 housing units -- and the mayor of Maale Adumim, Benny Kasriel, proudly states that the construction won't cost the Israeli taxpayer a penny, because it is all being financed by a non-profit organization dating back to the 1800s, which owns the land and is financing the project with help from American gambling and real estate tycoon Irvwin Moscowitz. When Kasriel is asked about whether the construction plans violate international understandings with foreign governments -- the U.S. among others -- he answers, all Israel has to do is stand up straight and not bow to foreigners. The housing ministry meanwhile says the tenders were issued legally. Washington says it is looking into the issue.

Tony Blair meanwhile is coming to the region, on his so-called farewell tour. He's going down in history as a 'great friend' of Israel, everyone agrees. Olmert will want to talk about the evils of Hizbollah and Iran and Syria and Hamas. Blair, say the newspaper reports this morning, will want to point out to his hosts that it might not be the panacea for all Israel's problems, but political progress with the Palestinians would go a long way toward easing some of Israel's problems. Olmert's likely response, 'we'll be happy to talk with them -- after they return Gilad Shalit.' But what will they have to talk about if Israel is going ahead with a plan meant to 'strengthen' Jerusalem by making sure the West Bank is cut in half, and Palestinians can't travel from Ramallah to Bethlehem, which should be a half hour ride in heavy traffic, into a day-long journey on unrepaired roads; or for that matter, continues to control Gaza's entrances and exits, whether directly or by proxy.

Olmert is also afraid to make a deal that involves too many Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli prisons, believing that the Israeli public won't like such a deal. Maybe. It certainly doesn't like deals that reward terrorists, which is why Olmert wants to make the deal in such a way that it looks like PA President Mahmoud Abbas is getting the Palestinian prisoners back. But he can only do that if Abbas seems to have real power, and that will only happen if PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniye agree on a national unity government. Meanwhile, the Palestinian prisoners and the Israeli hostages remain in their respective cells. The Palestinians get family visits and visits from the ICRC. Nobody other than their captors have seen the two Israelis captured by Hizbollah and the one captured by Hamas' military wing with the Popular Resistance Committee and the Islamic Army.

So it remains a chicken or egg dilemma and neither Blair nor George Bush will solve it for the Israelis or Palestinians. It's up to them.

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