Today's Situation

The crippled coalition Monday, September 04, 2006

But now, after a war that the Israeli public feels the IDF lost because of mismanagement, and with two State Comptroller investigations into Olmert's activities now heading to the attorney general for him to decide whether to order full-scale criminal investigations, Olmert looks like a lame duck who might not be able to survive politically through the upcoming Jewish new year holidays.

Of course, counting out Olmert -- and the Labor Party's Amir Peretz, the novitiate defense minister who is being blamed for all that went wrong in the war against Hizbollah, even though he had only taken office two months before it broke out -- is a risky business. Olmert, never a popular or populist politician, managed to survive as a wily Likud politician for 30 years, since 1974. And Peretz, against all odds, did win the Labor Party leadership less than a year ago, beating icon Shimon Peres in a close vote.

So, there's talk about Olmert widening his coalition, perhaps by bringing in the Rightist Avigdor Lieberman, or reshuffling his cabinet, moving Peretz to an expanded social welfare ministry or even the treasury. There's even talk about a diplomatic breakthrough, with the Palestinians, the Syrians, the Lebanese -- anybody, it seems, just as long as it distracts attention from all the probes, from the investigations into the conduct of the war, to the blatantly political appointments he made while Industry Minister in a Sharon government, to the generous discount he got on his million-plus dollar home in one of Jerusalem's wealthiest neighborhoods.

It is difficult to predict right now which course Olmert will take. He is said to have been transformed by the war from a shoot from the hip loudmouth to a cautious, less confident but more thorough decision maker. There's no doubt that one of the biggest problems with the war was that it was decided on the fly, and with each passing week, in speeches that Olmert wanted considered Churchillian, Olmert, Peretz and to a large extent the chief of staff Dan Halutz, kept adjusting the goals of the war. It began with promises to return two abducted soldiers, turned into a promise to crush Hizbollah, changed into a vow to end the rocket fire into Israel, and ended with Hizbollah harmed, but not defeated, the rockets landing up until the last minute before the cease fire began, and negotiations for a prisoner exchange that will no doubt free Lebanese and Syrian prisoners in a lopsided equation for freeing the two abducted soldiers.

Meanwhile, under cover of the war in the north, Israel waged war in Gaza, killing some 250 Palestinians, almost twice as many as Israelis killed during the war against Hizbollah. And as in the case of the war with Hizbollah, many of the casualties were civilians, women, children, pedestrians, bystanders. Few Israelis seem to care. In Sderot, for example, despite a dramatic decline in the number of Qassams fired by Palestinians into Israel, the residents are still demanding 'forceful action' against the Qassams, as if the 250 dead Palestinians was not forceful. Sderot schools were not opened this week along with schools elsewhere in the country, because some of the schools remain defenseless against the rockets.

For those gambling that Olmert will choose a diplomatic breakthrough as his last ditch effort to survive, the most likely front is the Palestinian one. There is insistent talk of an impending deal that would free an Israeli soldier abducted from inside Israel two weeks before the abductions in the north prompted the war. Speculation is rife about a three-stage release of as many as 1,000 Palestinians, including minors, women, and convicts who have served terms longer than 20 years in jail. There would be some form of coincidental formation of a national unity government in the Palestinian Authority, enabling Olmert to say that he is not negotiating with the Hamas, but with Mahmoud Abbas. The international funds -- and the Israeli collected customs -- gathering in piles for the Palestinians would be released to them, and while it might not mean an economic boom for Gaza, it would certainly make an enormous difference for the poverty-ridden Strip. An overall ceasefire would be declared, and presumably, the PA would finally take action against the remaining rogue groups that keep on firing Qassams, while Israel would suspend its assassinations and raids into Gaza.

But that kind of optimism -- and diplomatic flexibility -- runs counterintuitive to the force and more force approach that Israelis take for granted as the only way to deal with the Palestinians (indeed the Arabs), and it assumes the Palestinian leadership will finally turn the corner away from 'armed resistance' and toward 'self-governance.' In other words, it's a long shot, but maybe not as long a shot as a sudden opening of peace negotiations with Syria, for example.

As of today, the prevailing wisdom is that Olmert will try a cabinet reshuffle that includes expanding his coalition to include the Yisrael Beitenu faction headed by Avigdor Lieberman. It's also a long shot, requiring a dramatic move of Peretz to treasury, something that Olmert refused to even consider when forming the government, thus ending up with the novitiate as defense minister, a decision that might yet come under criticism by one of the three probes that Olmert wants, or the single, judicial commission that much of the public (and Peretz) wants. But that is all today's prevailing wisdom and Israeli politics is nothing if not fickle, volatile and highly unpredictable. For example, the whole tower of cards could come crashing down over surrealistic defense establishment demands for at least 30 billion more shekels in its budget over the next three years, with the first 11 billion just to replenish munitions and other supplies, the next 10 billion to prepare for 'the next war' and the following 9 billion to revive various long-term plans that were canceled over a decade of budget cuts. Already, the treasury is talking about a 3 percent deficit, up from a less than one percent deficit that was planned for 2007. Peretz, as defense minister, is presumably behind that budget request but he is also insisting that the 2007 budget not cut any of the social welfare spending Labor expected when it joined Olmert's coalition.

So, Olmert was appearing at the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee this morning, where there is a majority for a judicial commission of inquiry, something he wants to avoid. A bill is moving through the Knesset that would enable a 61-seat majority mandate a Supreme Court justice to set up a judicial inquiry. There seems to be a majority for that bill, as well. There's no end in sight to the battering and beating that the crippled coalition is suffering.

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