Today's Situation

A leadership malaise Thursday, August 24, 2006

The reasons for a Barak commission are clear: it would immediately knock the wind out of the sails of the protestors who are still not massing but are definitely gathering in the park opposite the Prime Minister’s Office; it would give Olmert at least a few months of trying to restore his public approval ratings through whatever means he can find, and no judicial commission of inquiry has ever ordered or recommended that a prime minister resign, while past commissions have deposed defense ministers and chiefs of staff. On the other hand, Olmert might be thinking, there’s always a first time.

The political volatility -- and the political vacuum in case Olmert and Peretz are forced out -- is evident in the polls, which disagree with each other. Two different polls came out last night on TV with two very different findings: in one, Avigdor Lieberman ends up the head of the largest party in the Knesset, but his Yisrael Beitenu doesn’t even reach 20 seats. In the other, Kadima is battered but not blown away. A poll today, released by Israel Radio, says that Moshe ‘Bogie’ Yaalon, the ex-kibbutznik, ex-chief of staff, is very popular as a potential defense minister, but he has yet to decide which political party he would join. He has roots in the Labor party, but the Right has assumed he is with them. On the other hand, he is on the record as saying in a peace deal, Israel could forego the Golan Heights.

Meanwhile, Olmert may have headed off at least one challenge inside Kadima, by making Meir Sheetrit the acting justice minister, after Haim Ramon was forced to step down so he could face sexual harassment charges. Those charges are far from being as serious as the suspicions against Katsav, who has not been seen in public in several days. One sign that Katsav understands how serious his situation has become is that he hired one of the country’s most flamboyantly famous criminal lawyers, who keeps saying Katsav did not force at least one secretary to have regular sex with him, as suspected by police. The police also are looking into reports that two other women in the President’s Residence had a public fight over his attentions.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz appears to be in deeper trouble than Olmert. Not only is he being blamed for the army’s logistical failures during the war, he has an unruly Knesset faction, full of ideologues that he brought into the party but did not reward with ministries when the government was formed. Olmert, however, is being blamed for making Peretz defense minister. Those against Peretz from the start ‘because he has no experience’ are now gloating with ‘I told you so’ arguments, and politicians defending him are few and far between. On the other hand, if a commission of inquiry is set into motion, Peretz, like Olmert, could have time to repair his public approval ratings.

Interestingly, noted the Israel Radio pollster, while some two-thirds of the Israeli public opposes negotiations with Syria right now, it’s not deep opposition, and it is against the background of weeks of accusations by government and military leaders about Syrian responsibility for the backing Hizbollah. If Syrian President Bashar Assad were to change his tune toward Israel, said pollster Yossi Vadana, the public’s attitude toward a Golan deal could change dramatically.

But meanwhile, Israel is in a malaise, depressed about its leadership, with no real reservoir of potential alternative leaders at the ready. Perhaps the most interesting development in the polls released last night was that no party comes out as dominant, no party tops the 20-seat mark in the 120-seat Knesset, with nothing on the horizon that even hints of improvement.

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