Today's Situation

Heat wave Tuesday, August 22, 2006

The 800,000-strong Iranian army won't march across Iraq and Jordan, and the Iranian air force is very outdated, with only a handful of planes capable of even reaching Israel. So, the real Iranian threats against Israel is its long range Shihab-3 missiles, its use of Hizbollah against Israel in the north of the country, and its use of terror, internationally, Kam told Israel Radio's Gabi Gazit during the popular current events radio show this morning.

The Shihab can carry about 700 kilos of explosives -- much more than the Scuds that hit Israel in 1991, the first Gulf War, and far more than the explosives carried by the Katyushas fired by Hizbollah into northern Israel during July and August. The rocket is also not very accurate, said Kam. And, he pointed out, the Iranians only have a few dozen such Shihabs, though over time the Iranians can expect to beef up their supplies and to improve them. The Israeli Arrow anti-missile missile is supposedly capable of dealing with such a rocket attack, or at least in testing it has been capable of downing such large rockets flying 1,000 kilometers over two to three minutes, the estimated time it would take for an Iranian rocket to reach Israel.

Minister Eitan's remarks on Iran made no reference to the Iranians denying access yesterday to UN inspectors seeking entry to one of Iran's nuclear program facilities, nor to Bernard Lewis' grim prediction that Iran would choose August 22, the Muslim date marking the ascendancy of Mohammad to heaven (from Jerusalem) as a date for a spectacular attack against whatever it considered anti-Iranian forces, which nowadays means Israel and the U.S. Although the Iranians are expected to formally respond by August 30 to the West's offer of benefits if Iran quits its nuclear development program, the announcement by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamani that there would be no such cessation of nuclear development was taken in Israel at least to mean that Iran was 'giving the finger' to the West.

But Iran only managed to draw attention for a couple of hours. The main focus of the media remained the protesting reservists, the demands for commissions of inquiry into the management of the war against Hizbollah, and demands for the resignations of Olmert, Peretz, and Halutz.

And with the ceasefire holding, more or less (though Italy is warning it won't keep its promise to lead the new UNIFIL instead of France if 'Israel keeps shooting' -- a reference to another shooting incident last night, when IDF troops about four kilometers north of the border spotted three armed Hizbollah men moving suspiciously) the Israeli political arena was rife with speculation today about what lies ahead.

Inside Labor, there are at least four challengers to Amir Peretz, in Kadima there are at least three to Ehud Olmert, and last night Moshe 'Bogie' Yaalon appeared on Channel One, from Washington, hinting broadly that he would be entering politics, with everyone presuming the kibbutznik ex-chief of staff who didn't like the disengagement plan and was basically fired because of that opposition, will enter the Likud and seek the leadership.

It's way too early to make any predictions except that there's the kind of political maneuvering and gesturing that suggests anticipation of yet another political earthquake under the feet of Israel's politicians. How soon it strikes -- or if it does -- largely depends on whether the reservist protests gather any real momentum. In the current heat wave, with temperatures heading for the upper 30s and humidity in the 70s, that's not likely. Not this week, in any case.

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