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Siniora’s proposal, Olmert's response Tuesday, August 08, 2006

But at his press conference, Olmert made clear that no decision has been made for any such ground operation, which has been extensively discussed in an increasingly impatient Israeli media that can’t understand why Israel has not already defeated the Iranian-backed Lebanese guerilla group. Tomorrow, said Olmert, the security cabinet will convene to discuss the IDF’s proposal for an operation meant to push Hizbollah Katyushas out of range of northern Israel, as far as the Litani River or beyond. And until then, he said, it is inappropriate for the prime minister to voice his views in public before the cabinet meets.

He did point out -- defensively considering the criticism mounting in Israel about the management of the war -- that every plan brought by the army to the government for approval and meant to halt the rocket fire into Israel, has been approved. But until yesterday morning, he said, there was no plan proffered by the army that went beyond the lines where the IDF ground troops are currently located -- up to about 8 kilometers north of the border with Lebanon. The army says that much of the Katyusha fire aimed at northern Galilee is coming from the Nabatiya area, actually north of the Litani. But a ground operation could clear the villages of south Lebanon of Hizbollah weapons stockpiles -- and fighters.

Olmert’s meeting with the press, the first at which he has taken questions since the war began, took place at the President’s Residence, where Olmert briefed Moshe Katsav on the state of the war and the diplomatic efforts. The press conference, broadcast live on all the Israeli electronic channels, was repeatedly interrupted by emergency announcements about warning sirens going off in dozens of towns and villages in the north as the rockets fell.

Olmert said that Israel would not cease its military effort to end the Katyusha fire until the diplomatic efforts yield some final draft and meanwhile the existing plans are all preliminary drafts. Still, the diplomatic efforts seem to be shifting into a higher gear, even if the momentum remains slow. For one thing, Olmert welcomed Lebanese Prime Minister Fu’ad Siniora’s proposal to send the Lebanese Army south. He said Jerusalem was studying the proposal, noted that it is supposed to be part of the implementation of UN Security Resolution 1559, which has been a top priority for Israel, and that Hizbollah’s acceptance of the Siniora proposal could be evidence ‘of what we are seeing on the ground,’ that Hizbollah is being severely harmed by the combat with IDF forces. Of course, that’s a matter of spin, and this war has been about spin from the start. Coincidentally, the army has been reporting this morning that it has captured several Katyusha launching crews and says that at least a third of the Hizbollah’s trained forces have been killed, with many more wounded.

Olmert did sound much positive than most of the increasingly jingoistic Israeli press on the Siniora proposal. There was no sarcasm or cynicism about Siniora’s plan or whether it can be implemented. The Israeli press has taken to depicting Siniora, especially after the Lebanese premier’s tearful appearance yesterday before the Arab League, as ineffective as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. And most Israeli analysts suggested that the Siniora proposal must be flawed, if Hizbollah has signed onto it.

“The sooner we can evacuate south Lebanon,’ said Olmert, ‘the happier we will be -- as long as we can guarantee that we have met our goals.’

Those goals, of course, have been a matter of some debate in the last few weeks. At the beginning, the army and government seemed to be promising that the air force would suffice to smash Hizbollah -- and retrieve the two captured Israeli soldiers. Then the goal gradually was transformed as it became evident that air force raids could not stop Katyushas from terrorizing northern Israel. Ground operations were approved, with much warning about casualties in the Lebanese quagmire and memories of the first Lebanon war. At first, the Israeli government, like all its predecessors, scoffed at the idea of a multinational or international force, not trusting any foreigners to defend it.

But gradually, it has come around to the idea of a foreign force that would somehow back up the Lebanese Army -- or fill in for it -- and replace Israeli soldiers. Thus, Olmert said today that Israel wants the Lebanese Army in south Lebanon ‘and there is talk about another force, an effective force, from other nations that can help the Lebanese army. I think that it is possible it will happen. But whether in this or that framework, under this or that title, we can’t say yet because the discussions are not over yet. So as I said, we are considering it and we will be able to form an opinion when the final draft is approved.’

So, when will that final draft be approved by the UN Security Council? The prevailing view early this morning in Israeli papers was that it would be tomorrow at the earliest. But later in the morning, there was report that a German diplomat said the Americans and French, in effect representing Israel and Lebanon, respectively, had reworked their much touted draft plan from the weekend, which Siniora and his government had rejected because it did not include an explicit call for the removal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory.

The big question still remains -- can the Lebanese Army, rusty and as riddled with the political-ethnic sensitivities and fragile complexities of wider Lebanese society, operate as a national army exerting its sovereignty against the Hizbollah, and will any international force have the gumption to face down Hizbollah rejectionists? Siniora seems to have the backing of the Arab League -- including Syria -- but the premise of a Lebanese Army move to south Lebanon is that Hizbollah is taken out of action as the ‘defender of Lebanon’ against Israel. There are many people, and not only in Israel, who wonder if that is something that Tehran is ready to approve. And even if this battle is not the first of the coming war between Israel and Iran, as predicted by so many nowadays, Tehran still holds enormous sway over the Shiite leadership of Hizbollah, and Tehran still has its own strategic purposes to keeping the Hizbollah an active, effective military force.

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