Today's Situation

The Condoleezza two step Friday, July 28, 2006

The call-up of reserve troops -- enough, the army believes, to occupy Lebanon’s south -- is also being regarded as a message to Syria as well as to the international community to speed up its efforts to arrange a deal that satisfies Israeli demands. In other words, there are mixed signals coming from Israel about Syria, and with President George Bush constantly pointing out that the Syrians are to blame for the situation, no wonder the Syrian armed forces are said to be on high alert. Syria has hundreds of Scud missiles, able to reach anywhere in the country. There are reports that the army has deployed Patriot anti-missile missile systems in strategic locations, and the Home Front Commander said that his troops -- and all the emergency services from police to Magen David Adom that are subject to his command in case of an attack on the rear -- are prepared for attacks on the center of the country, a euphemism for Tel Aviv and its metropolitan area.

Condoleezza Rice, whom the Israelis did not expect back until the middle of next week at the earliest is said by Israel Radio to be planning to return to Israel and the region tomorrow night. Maybe she is carrying a more forceful message to the Israelis that the Finnish foreign minister was not kidding when he said that the G-8’s statement and the Rome Conference were not meant to give Israel a ‘green light’ to extend the fighting for as long as it wants. A top UN envoy to the region, Terje Larsen, meanwhile says that after meetings here he thinks that neither Israel nor Hizbollah are interested yet in a ceasefire. Hizbollah’s calls for a ceasefire that were heard yesterday have meanwhile faded.

Haaretz is reporting that there is a bit of a tussle between the Mossad and IDF Military Intelligence over just how much damage has been done to Hizbollah by Israeli operations. The Mossad reportedly says that Hizbollah has barely been scratched and can continue lobbing rockets for months into Israel. Military Intelligence meanwhile is saying that while the Shiite group has not been mortally wounded, it has been somewhat crippled by the incessant attacks on its command and control facilities, storage plants for munitions, and by rocket launcher hunters on the ground and in the air. Even the lethal combat in Bint Jebayel, where eight Israeli Golani soldiers were killed, is said to have been costly for Hizbollah. The IDF says Hizbollah lost dozens of fighters there.

Meanwhile, Israel’s economy can pay for the war, which is costing billions of shekels a week in lost manufacturing production, consumer consumption, damage to buildings, army expenditures, and all the related costs. Israel had something like NIS 15 billion in unspent money from its budget, has lowered its budget deficit to barely one percent of GDP, much lower than the 3 percent considered acceptable in advanced Western economies, and has nearly $30 billion in reserves held by the central bank.

But Israel cannot afford a war of attrition, not so much for economic reasons as for reasons of morale -- and domestic politics. It is one thing to ask a quarter of the population to stay in safety zones or bomb shelters for a month or even two. But if the fighting drags out beyond August, the management of the war will come under heavy criticism from politicians who will see an opportunity to attack Olmert and Peretz, and those politicians will be able to point to the estimated quarter million Israeli refugees from the north who have either fled their homes or are spending most of their time in shelters. The army says that it can move masses of troops into southern Lebanon and put an end to Katyusha fire into the north, simply by pushing Hizbollah out of the region. But that’s a guarantee of Lebanese national solidarity against occupation. Some in the army are saying that the threat of an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon should force NATO to send its rapid deployment force to the area Israel just north of the Israeli border, where Hizbollah had troops right on the border fence, a stone’s throw, let alone a Kalashnikov shot, from Israeli tourists who enjoyed the green hills of northern Galilee for the last six years.

Hizbollah, of course, can afford a war of attrition. The Iranian backing guarantees it $100 million a year, not counting the arms Iran sends via Syria. Hizbollah, practically by definition, is more interested in the struggle to liberate Jerusalem, let alone the Shaba Farms, than it is in the state of the Lebanese economy. The Shiites who want to be Lebanese first vote for Amal, not Hizbollah, which is Islamic first, even if it plays down its Shiite connection when campaigning in the Lebanese political arena. Meanwhile, while ‘moderate’ -- meaning autocratic -- Arab governments are expressing their anger with Hizbollah (not approval of what Israel is doing) the Arab ‘street’ is saying that it supports Hizbollah but is doing very little to show it. Even in Syria and Palestine, only a few thousand demonstrators have been mustered to show support for Hassan Nasrallah.

So, the rockets continue falling in northern Israel, Israeli warplanes continue striking at Hizbollah facilities in Lebanon, and there is still some close quarters combat going on in the south Lebanese villages where Israeli troops are trying to shut down Hizbollah operations. It will be only late next week before the reservists -- estimated at between 30,000-50,000 troops -- are even ready to be sent into action. By then, Rice will probably be back here, if not tomorrow night than later in the week, and this second visit doesn’t seem likely to be another fact finding mission to hear out the Israelis and the Lebanese. So far, there’s no indication she will reverse U.S. policy and make an overture toward Syria, which many believe the only way to get a lasting ceasefire, especially if she can yank Assad completely out of the clutches of Iran and Hizbollah. Nor is there any indication of a multinational force rapidly being put together. Hizbollah meanwhile is promising it would fight a NATO rapid deployment force, since in Hizbollah eyes, that’s the equivalent of a U.S. force.

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