Today's Situation

The third week begins Thursday, July 27, 2006

The security cabinet was meeting this morning after session last night of the seven deputy prime ministers with Prime Minister Olmert. There were no leaks from that meeting last night except for complaints from some anonymous ministers that too much time was spent on analyzing what has happened and not enough on specific plans proposed by the army.

The progress of the war is clearly disappointing to at least the Israeli media. Soldiers interviewed in the wake of operations -- even after yesterday’s difficult battle -- show very high morale and eagerness to go back into battle, with no doubts expressed about how their commanders are leading them. But ex-generals are showing up on TV, explaining how when they were in charge, they did things differently. Amos Yaron, for example, was on TV the other night saying that when he led a corps into Lebanon in 1982, it only took him four days to reach Beirut, a comment that seemed to say that the current military leadership is not effective.

Some military commentators have pointed to the fact that the chief of staff and the head of military intelligence are both from the air force, with complaints that they don’t appreciate the need for detailed ground intelligence of the kind that supposedly would have prevented the events yesterday.

There are impassioned, some might say jingoistic, articles saying Israel must shove aside any moral compunction and not merely ‘soften up’ targets for infantry, but use the air force and artillery to wipe out villages. Cooler heads explain that casualties are inevitable in any ground battle, that Hizbollah in south Lebanon, funded by Iran with more than $100 million a year, is much better trained than Hamas or Islamic Jihad forces in Gaza, and that a ceasefire now is not an option, precisely because it would appear that Hizbollah has won, which is no option for Israel, or indeed the West. Furthermore, while Israel is focused on its casualties, Hizbollah is suffering from the pounding -- the army is estimating that at least half the Hizbollah fighters in Bint Jebayel were killed yesterday.

Israeli analysts say that Hizbollah’s calls last night for a ceasefire were the result of an equal measure of conviction that a ceasefire now would be interpreted as a Hizbollah victory and the pain of its casualties. The Iranians have also suddenly started asking for a ceasefire. ‘In the Middle East,’ said Middle East affairs analyst Guy Bechor to Israel Radio, ‘those who ask for a ceasefire are the losers.’ He noted that Iranian President Ahmadinejad has also called for a ceasefire. Bechor said Nasrallah, who was reported this morning by a Kuwaiti newspaper to be in Syria, was likely there to consult with the Iranians about which way the war should go. It is important to note that Nasrallah this week said that the ‘next stage’ of the war had begun, which he said meant the time has come to fire rockets ‘beyond beyond Haifa,’ meaning Tel Aviv. The rockets he has capable of that range are Iranian and are believed by Israel to be under control of Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, despite Nasrallah’s claims that his people have been trained in their use.

In any case, there is no doubt that the fighting will continue for now. Hizbollah rockets, in any case, kept falling in northern Israel this morning, so far without casualties.

There are two contradictory prevailing views nowadays. One says that ‘civilians’ Olmert, Peretz and Livni, have fallen in love with the power at their disposal and are approving anything the army proposes. The other view says that Olmert and Peretz and Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister, are constantly applying the brakes on the army. Even though Israel ostensibly has a ‘green light’ from the U.S. and much of the international community to continue hitting back at Hizbollah, impatience on the Israeli side is leading to the proposals for the use of massive airpower, or massive ground invasions, depending on the speaker. The army said from the start it would need about eight weeks to do what it had planned. Today is the first day of the third week of the war.

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