Today's Situation

When in Rome Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Hassan Nasrallah explicitly told his fighters last night that they have to hold out another ‘week to ten days’ as he announced on al Manar, Hizbollah TV, that the war is now entering a ‘second chapter’ and his rockets would attack ‘beyond, beyond Haifa.’

Israel, for its part, is convinced it has a green light from the Americans -- and to a certain extent the Europeans and Arabs -- to weaken Hizbollah as much as possible. Israel is insisting there will be no ceasefire until at the very least Hizbollah is removed from south Lebanon and unconditionally returns the two kidnapped soldiers.

There’s a lot of talk about a multinational force, but there aren’t any volunteers yet. Nasrallah vowed to attack any such force that dares take up positions in south Lebanon. UNIFIL, a UN observer force in place since 1978, has been useless over the years at preventing violence.

UNIFIL’s mandate, which is renewed every six months, is due to end at the end of this month, and there is talk of reshaping it to be much more ‘robust,’ a term that Rice has used to describe what would be required of an international force in the area meant to prevent new fighting between Hizbollah and Israel.

Coincidentally, last night an Israeli warplane bombed a UNIFIL position in south Lebanon, killing four members of the force. Israel has said it was an accident and is investigating. Military sources said the bomber might have mistaken the UN post for a Hizbollah position right next to it, which just goes to show how ineffective the blue helmets have been there.

Nasrallah’s claims that he’s gong to order missile attacks on ‘beyond, beyond Haifa,’ which everyone presumes to be Tel Aviv and particularly his claim Israel had planned, under U.S. orders, to invade Lebanon in the fall to topple the Lebanese government and install a puppet government, were greeted with scorn by Israeli officials.

They said that ‘other elements’ -- meaning Iran -- had control over the long-range missiles that Nasrallah was threatening to use, an indication that Israel would regard any such use of the missiles as an act of aggression by Iran. As for Nasrallah’s claims of a U.S.-Israeli conspiracy, a ‘senior Israeli government source’ was telling Israel Radio ‘that’s a 1,001 Arabian nights fantasy.’

On the ground, in south Lebanon, new fighting broke out in Bint Jebayel, the Hizbollah ‘headquarters’ in south Lebanon, after Israeli forces yesterday appeared to have taken control of the village. The IDF says that there apparently are still a few dozen Hizbollah guerrillas in the area. Katyushas landed this morning throughout northern Israel, including Haifa, wounding several people. More than 40 Israelis have been killed so far by the Katyushas, and about ten times that many Lebanese by Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Meanwhile, there is talk that the Hamas and Israel, through Egyptian mediation, are very close to a deal that would include the return of the captured Glad Shalit, a ceasefire in and around Gaza, the release of a few hundred Palestinian prisoners, an end to the economic siege of Gaza and Israeli assassinations of Palestinian militants. Maybe. There has been such talk before. But it is highly unlikely that Hamas-Damascus would sign on to such a deal as long as Israel is bombing Lebanon. Damascus-based Palestinian groups issued a statement this morning expressing solidarity with Hizbollah. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak meanwhile rejects any participation by troops from his country in a multinational force for south Lebanon.

And in the Knesset, there is a move underway to outlaw Balad, the Arab party that promotes a pan-Arab platform that Balad opponents say includes open expressions of support for Hizbollah’s attacks on Israel.

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