Today's Situation

A national consensus in Israel Monday, July 17, 2006

The country is in a state of semi-paralysis. Tel Aviv is under 'alert,' which means keeping aware of the news, say Home Front officers, while basically everyone living north of the Haifa to Afula line are staying home or close to it, and only going to work if absolutely necessary. That's about 20 percent of the Israeli population. True, the casualty figures on Israel's side are about a tenth of those on the Lebanese side, but while the Israelis attack very specific Hizbollah-related sites, there is something very random about the Hizbollah rocket fire. South Beirut's Dahiye neighborhood, where Hizbollah maintained its headquarters -- and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards were positioned -- has been leveled, but a kilometer away, in the same city, people can go to work normally. In Haifa, on the other hand, the rockets that struck yesterday, including one that killed eight workers in a railroad depot, have effectively shut down the city.

There is a general and genuine national consensus in Israel in favor of delivering a crushing blow to the Hizbollah, a consensus that runs much deeper than the one the government claims to exist for the attempts to crush Hamas. For one thing, many Israelis understand that while Israel left Gaza, it has not relinquished control over the Strip and in effect imprisoned the Gazans. But Israel really did quit Lebanon, down to the last centimeter, in May 2000, and Hizbollah's attacks -- and its stockpiling of rockets as a 'deterrent' threat against Israel -- is intolerable for Israelis. Thus, ironically say some, unlike former generals Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, who did nothing to stop the Hizbollah from stockpiling its rockets and believed the Israeli rear would never tolerate a Hizbollah rocket attack on civilian Israel, the 'civilian' Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz decided that Israelis were up to the ask of coping with rocket attacks and that Israel could not accept Hizbollah essentially maintaining a state within a state in Lebanon.

So, the rocket fire into Israel continues, though Israeli experts say is diminishing as Israeli planes attack Hizbollah's strategic positions as well as rocket launchers. Nazareth and Afula were hit this morning. There are no plans for a ground invasion of Lebanon, and the current assessments are that the Israeli campaign could be over by the end of the week. But Israel will not let up its pressure on the Lebanese government until it sees Lebanese troops replacing Hizbollah militiamen in southern Lebanon. Lebanese Army troops in south Lebanon would mean that Israel could hold the Beirut government responsible for any cross border attacks, so presumably, the Lebanese Army would make sure not to allow any.

However, while it seems logical -- to Israelis, at least -- that Lebanon's sovereign government take control over the southern part of the country, it might not be possible without help from an international force. British Prime Minister Tony Blair and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan apparently agree on the need for just such an international force. The G-8 statement, which is being recommended to the UN Security Council, could be turned into a UNSC resolution that might include a UN force, something Israel would oppose because in Israel's experience, UN forces are powerless, able only to defend themselves and unable to use force. At the very least, Israel would insist on a 'multinational' force.

Meanwhile, however, Olmert is due to speak in the Knesset this afternoon, for his first public accounting since the fighting with Hizbollah began less than a week ago. He and Peretz, who made innumerable public speeches full of sound and fury, threats and promises after Palestinians abducted an Israeli soldier three weeks ago, have been very reticent since the current crisis broke out. Many are now describing them as successfully handling the crisis, surprising all -- starting with Hizbollah's cocky leader, Hassan Nasrallah -- with their determination and resolve.

Indeed, Israel's fight against Hizbollah now is increasingly being viewed as a critical moment in the 'war against (Islamic fundamentalist) terror.' Hizbollah is very much proxy of Iran, which funds it to the tune of $100 million a year, and together with Syria supplies it with its weapons. The long-range rockets Hizbollah has that can reach Tel Aviv were provided by Iran specifically to serve as a deterrent in case Israel or the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. And although Hizbollah men know how to operate the rockets, Tehran has the final word on whether Nasrallah can give the order to fire them. Tel Aviv was Saddam Hussein's target in the first Gulf War and the city survived the month-long campaign with a bit of hand-wringing but very little significant damage. Indeed, Tel Avivians seemed quite blasé on the street today about being told to be 'on alert.' But if Tel Aviv is attacked, Israeli intelligence will interpret it as being an order given from Tehran.

It is important to keep in mind that the mostly Sunni Arab world is not showing much support for Hizbollah. Indeed, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have all denounced Hizbollah's activity, and demand that Iran stop interfering with Lebanese politics. The same can be said for Palestinian politics. Iranian involvement in Palestinian politics, through Hizbollah and to a certain extent Hamas, has been one of the factors obstructing the Israeli-Palestinian political process.

Syria, meanwhile, is viewed in Israel as being very responsible for Hizbollah's actions. After all, Syria is the way-station through which the Iranian arms reach the Shiite organization. But neither Israel is not interested in a third front, which would probably be limited to Syrian rocket attacks on Israeli cities, since the Syrian army is so outdated and in such disrepair that it can do little if anything against Israeli warplanes. Any such Syrian attacks on Israel, of course, would result in a very harsh Israeli blow against the Syrian regime. Many in the region would like to see that happen. But nobody knows what would come afterwards. And more uncertainty is the least thing the region needs.

So, in the meanwhile, it seems Israel has a green light from the G-8 to do what it can to weaken Hizbollah if not completely crush it. The presumption is that a much weakened Hizbollah will mean a much strengthened Lebanese government, perhaps even strong enough for it to assert its sovereignty in south Lebanon, putting an end to the so-called Hamastan that has grown up there in the last decade, and in particularly in the last six years.

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