Today's Situation

Changing the rules Thursday, July 13, 2006

There has not been so much Israeli air activity over Lebanon since Operation Peace for Galilee, the ill-fated Israeli incursion in 1982 meant to force the PLO out of Lebanon, starting with southern Lebanon. That 'operation' eventually turned into the Lebanon War, and a lethal 18-year occupation of south Lebanon, where Israel now faces a much more disciplined and trained guerrilla force in the form of the Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbollah.

For the last six years, since then-premier Ehud Barak pulled Israeli security forces out of south Lebanon, Hizbollah has installed an array of fortresses along the border with Israel, as the Lebanese government, first because it was under Syria's thumb and more recently because it fears a clash with Hizbollah, failed to abide by UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of all the militias in Lebanon.

Surrealistically, the guerrilla group's outposts on the Lebanese border were so close to the actual fence that in some places, Israeli and Hizbollah troops were barely a few dozen meters apart. When Israel quit Lebanon in May 2000, Barak promised that any Hizbollah provocation would be met with force from Israel. But in December of the same year, after Hizbollah kidnapped three Israeli soldiers in the Mt. Dov area near Mt. Hermon, Israel did not take the kind of forceful action that military and political analysts now say should have been taken to deter any further attempts to cross the Blue Line, the internationally recognized border between Lebanon and Israel.

During the past six years, through Syria, Iran has provided Hizbollah with thousands of rockets that are said to have ranges far enough to reach the middle of Israel. Indeed, a subtext of Nasrallah's speech yesterday explaining that the only way Israel will get back its two captured soldiers -- and presumably the third soldier captured by Hamas -- would be through indirect negotiations leading to a prisoner exchange, was that Israel's government is inexperienced and would never dare take the kind of action against Hizbollah that could lead to a massive rocket retaliation by the guerrilla group.

Nasrallah might be wrong. Israelis quickly grew used to the quiet on the northern border over the last six years, filling parks and rural b&bs on every weekend or holiday, turning the Galilee into a thriving part of the country. Israelis seemed much more offended by the Hizbollah's capture of the two soldiers, whose identity was being withheld by the IDF and whose physical condition was reportedly to be fine when they were taken from their vehicle, than they were by the Hamas' capture of Gilad Shalit. Indeed, while there was growing skepticism about the Olmert-Peretz government's policy of no negotiations with the Hamas for Shalit's release, there seems to be a genuine consensus in Israel that instead of negotiating with Hizbollah for the release of the two soldiers, it is time for either the Lebanese government -- or Israel -- to take the kind of action that puts an end to the Hizbollah's antics.

Until the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the businessman-politician who financed much of the reconstruction of Beirut, it was impossible to imagine a Lebanese government taking action against Hizbollah, because of its Syrian patrons. But the assassination unleashed a powerful anti-Syrian movement in Lebanon and something deeper, a sense that the time had come for Lebanese, rather than sectarian interests to rule. Hizbollah, the last of the ethnic-religious militias, is an obstacle to that newfound sends of Lebanese nationalism said to be the new mood in Lebanon. Thus, the declared goals of the Israeli military moves, as enunciated this morning by Defense Minister Amir Peretz, is to make the Lebanese government send its army to the Israeli border to replace the Hizbollah positions there. If Beirut won't do so, he said, Israel would make sure that Hizbollah does not return to the border.

Meanwhile, as Israeli planes continued to pound mostly Hizbollah targets inside Lebanon, dozens of Hizbollah missiles -- mostly 122 mm. Katyushas -- have been fired since dawn into Israel. Some 200,000 Israelis spent the night in shelters throughout northern Galilee. One woman was killed in Nahariya, the resort town on the Mediterranean south of the Lebanese border. More than 20 Israelis have been wounded. The rockets used so far have a range of about 20 kilometers, but Israel is not taking chances and home front army commands, police, and emergency services as far south as Netanya have been put on alert, as military correspondents report this morning that the all-out offensive will last more than a few days. The sudden violence had a powerful impact on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, with stocks dropping as much as 2-4 percent, while foreign currencies, which had been weakening against the shekel were in demand,

Lebanese sources were reporting by noon that 47 Lebanese had been killed in the Israeli air raids. According to Israel, most of those are Hizbollah men, but Lebanese officials said many civilians have been affected. Israel assumes it has international 'legitimacy' for its actions -- after all, the guerrillas crossed the border into sovereign Israeli territory and as Israeli politicians have been saying since Shalit was captured, 'would any normal sovereign country allow such a thing to happen to it without responding?' But Israel's attempt, 'to change the rules,' pulling the initiative out of the Hizbollah's hands, is risky. Meanwhile, Israeli planes are aiming for such obvious targets as Hizbollah's al Manar TV station and known warehouses of the long-range missiles that Hizbollah gets from Iran. Despite the attacks on the TV station, it continues broadcasting.

But Israeli planes are also targeting the southern neighborhoods of Beirut, the Shiite neighborhoods that form the Hizbollah's urban stronghold. The Israelis admit to targeting Hizbollah leaders -- and their families. A stray missile in the populated areas could turn into the kind of tragedy that put an end to a similar Israeli operation against Hizbollah in 1996, Operation Grapes of Wrath, when Israel tried to push Hizbollah out of south Lebanon by systematically shelling south Lebanon. A shell landed in the village of Kafr Kana, where the UN had created a refuge for south Lebanese civilians fleeing the Israeli shellings. More than 120 people were killed, putting an end to the operation. Already this morning, the Russians and French have publicly complained about the disproportionate Israeli response to yesterday's Hizbollah attack and Israel is being warned about avoiding harm to civilians. Meanwhile, flights heading toward Beirut have been diverted to Cyprus.

Meanwhile, the events in the north have overshadowed the ongoing Israeli operation in Gaza, including an Israeli attack on the Palestinian Foreign Ministry building in Gaza. The reason the ministry was attacked -- Hamas government Foreign Minister Mohammad a Zahar is believed to be the point man in the Palestinian Authority government with ties to Khaled Mish'al. According to reports in Israel, Israeli intelligence knows that PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh was unaware of the planned assault on the Kerem Shalom and believes a Zahar was in the loop of the preparations.

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