Today's Situation

Rumors and speculation Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Mediators and would be mediators now include the Egyptians, Saudis, Turks, Russians, French, Finns (!), the Japanese - with outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi arriving tomorrow for stops in Jerusalem and Ramallah, and now, an American team of Deputy National Security Adviser Elliot Abrams and Assistant Secretary of State David Welch is due here, ostensibly to try to restart talks between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Israel's vociferous declarations about not negotiating with terrorists was simply belied by the obvious statement made by Public Security Minister Avi Dichter last weekend, when he said Israel has known in the past how to free prisoners for the sake of recovering Israeli captives -- or even as a goodwill gesture meant to shore up a lull in fighting.

Indeed, in the last 24 hours, particularly after Mish'al pointedly noted that he had been told by European mediators about Israeli promises to release prisoners, Israeli officials like Justice Minister Haim Ramon have been saying that Israel had been gearing up for a prisoner release as part of the plans for a meeting with Abbas, a meeting that only three weeks ago seemed likely to take place in the first week of July. Indeed, some of the speculation about the entire crisis, starting with the tunnel that took at least two months to dig from southeastern Gaza 200 meters into Israeli territory, is that it was prompted by radical elements in Hamas, led by Mish'al, who wanted to disrupt any Olmert-Abbas meeting. The deployment of the team of guerillas from the Hamas military wing, the Popular Resistance Committees, and the Islamic Army, goes that speculation, was meant by Mish'al to prevent implementation of a new 'national consensus' document, based on the Prisoners' Document, that PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and Abbas hammered out and which they wanted to pave the way for negotiations with Israel.

More speculation has the two sides, while blaming each other for the apparent stalemate, broadening the terms of reference for a deal from returning the Israeli soldier and ending the Qassams, into a much broader hudna, involving no only prisoner releases but other Israeli gestures of goodwill -- if Hamas is prepared to take charge in Gaza, to prevent attacks on Israel. And added to the brew this morning by at least one report, is the possibility that somehow the final deal would include some form of closure of the case of Ron Arad, the Israeli jet navigator who fell into radical Islamic hands in Lebanon nearly 20 years ago and not heard from for 19 years.

But that's the optimistic spin. It depends on some creative diplomatic move that seems beyond Israel's capabilities to initiate, and beyond the power of the Europeans to implement. The Arabs involved in trying to solve the crisis -- Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia -- might have the ingenuity, but despite all the praise Olmert heaped on Mubarak, Israel won't easily trust an Arab-devised solution. The Americans are likely going to hear from Abbas that he is eager to meet Olmert, while the Israeli prime minister will likely say no meeting is possible until the crisis over Shalit is solved.

That leads to the pessimistic scenario, which various commentators note today essentially means a very lengthy -- weeks if not months -- of Israeli military operations, behind the scenes negotiations and occasional 'infuriating and frustrating' public posturing by spokesmen for the other side. In any case, with Yedioth Aharonoth, Israel's most widely distributed newspaper, blaring this morning that the Gazans are out of food -- and its commentator warning that a humanitarian crisis there could spoil the IDF's operations, by forcing Israel to prematurely end the moves meant to squeeze Hamas -- the government is beginning to feel the pressure to ease up its pressure on the Palestinians. The theory that enough pressure on the Palestinian population will make them rise against the militants has been proven wrong for the last six years, ever since the intifada began in the fall of 2000. But the IDF still believes in it, like most armies believing it has never been truly given a free hand to do what is necessary to reach the outcome the government wants.

And that leads to the larger dilemma now: Olmert insists that he is still committed to his plan to move as many as 70,000 settlers from isolated settlements in the West Bank to new homes behind the separation/security fence/barrier Israel continues building between its population centers and the West Bank. But there are voices inside his party, Kadima (which has yet to hold a voter registration drive and while it is the ruling party, seems to exist only on paper), already doubting whether the plan can be implemented.

Among the skeptics are Meir Sheetrit, who has his own ambitions to become prime minister, and Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister who is considered number 2 in the party after Olmert and has the prestigious foreign ministry portfolio where she is trying to implement reforms after years of Likud politics corrupting the professionalism of the ministry's staff. Sheetrit says the plan, alternatively dubbed convergence, realignment, and redeployment, is impractical. Livni says it does not mean pulling out and 'throwing the key over the fence.' And Dichter, considered the hawkish flank of Kadima, has bluntly stated that even if the settlers are moved out, the army and Shin Bet (which he used to head) will have to remain behind. In other words, no end to the occupation.

But who knows, maybe there will be talks with Abbas, circumventing Hamas entirely. Israel would have to release prisoners -- Ramon said that Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz were prepared to hand over to Abbas 'the types of prisoners no previous Israeli government ever considered freeing,' a hint of freeing old prisoners, perhaps prisoners who have what Israel calls 'blood on their hands' who have renounced terrorism. The Americans need a success in the Middle East, an October surprise, perhaps, just before the congressional elections. A sudden breakthrough toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace could be just the ticket -- after all, they remain the only power with enough power, if not prestige, to force the sides to do something. But that's speculation, and whether it is optimistic or pessimistic depends on the views of the beholder.

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