Today's Situation

No compromising Monday, July 10, 2006

While Israel claims that Hamas-Damascus boss Khaled Mish’al is in control of the three groups holding the corporal, now entering his third week of captivity, a spokesman for the three groups -- the Hamas military wing in Gaza, the Popular Resistance Committees, and the Islamic Army -- said nobody gives them orders, and no progress toward releasing Shalit will be made until Israel complies with their demands.

Mish’al is slated to hold a press conference this afternoon in Damascus. He is in and out of meetings with various envoys from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas -- seemingly completely sidelined by the events -- and the Arab League.

According to Hamas expert Shaul Mishal, speaking on Israel Radio, there are two competing elements: Mish’al and Abu Marzuk in Damascus, against Ismail Haniyeh and Abbas in the Palestinian Authority. ‘Since Israel is not distinguishing between the two different Hamases, we could lose the potential partnership with Haniyeh and Abu Mazin, if we don’t start releasing prisoners. The further we get from an agreement, we increase the chances of violence, the chances of en error made by one side or the other, that will deteriorate the situation completely.’

Mishal said the choice is between ‘the worst and less worst … We have to reach a deal with the domestic leadership, which is a combination of Haniyeh and Abu Mazin, before Mish’al, who plays according to the Iranian flute, takes over.’

Mish’al ‘wants to be the new Arafat,’ said the Israeli expert, ‘and we should not give him the opportunity.’

There is a theory making the rounds that all the strident talk by Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni about ‘not negotiations with terrorists’ is camouflage for ongoing negotiations. Military experts seem to hope so, arguing that negotiations are a delaying tactic that can provide the time to gather valuable intelligence.

But the Israeli government keeps insisting that there will be no Israeli compromise on anything at least until after Shalit is returned and the Qassams stop being launched -- no prisoners releases, no end to raids into Gaza, no end to the nightly arrests in the West Bank. Until this morning, for the last two weeks, Jerusalem has been able to count on international media attention (except for the Americans) directed toward Germany and the World Cup far from Gaza.

With the end of those games, Jerusalem, if not the Israeli public, will likely be inundated with international complaints and concerns regarding humanitarian conditions in Gaza, where about half the population has been without electricity for 12 days, while fuel and medicines are increasingly difficult to find. The government argues that it is doing whatever it can to prevent a humanitarian crisis and Palestinian complaints are propaganda. Israeli newsmen have been prevented from entering Gaza by the army, since it began its raids and operations in the strip two weeks ago, in an effort to squeeze the captors of the missing soldier and to force crews that launch the Qassam rockets into the open, where they can be cut down by superior Israeli forces. So far, about 50 Palestinians have been killed in various operations, almost all armed men, but at least a dozen have been bystanders, or innocents hit by Israeli shells or missiles. There have been more than 100 wounded, including many non-combatants. But public opinion in Israel is barely aware of suffering on the Palestinian side. Olmert reportedly asked the foreign press today why nobody considers the psychological suffering of tens of thousands of Israelis who have to worry about Qassams suddenly falling on them, a humanitarian issue. Polls show contradictory moods in the Israeli public -- a demand for a harsh IDF move against Palestinians for electing the ‘terrorist Hamas government’ and allowing Qassams to be fired from Gaza into Israel, as well as a belief that negotiations are the way to recover the missing soldier.

Olmert, by the way, used his meeting with the foreign press to rebuff political predictions in Israel that the Gaza imbroglio renders irrelevant his plan to withdraw from some 90 percent of the West Bank. Maybe. This afternoon, his government faces a barrage of no confidence motions from the opposition, which is dominated by the Right, but has a substantial Leftist wing made up of Meretz and the Arab parties. Olmert is trying to expand his coalition with the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism faction, but the negotiations are proceeding lazily, so much so that UTJ is presenting one of several no-confidence motions today in the Knesset. It is upset about the planned gay pride parade scheduled for Jerusalem in August. None of the motions are expected to pass, but all are a form of harassment reminding Olmert that his coalition is undisciplined, and that he only has the votes for a major West Bank withdrawal if he counts Meretz and Arab MKs, who have been ostracized by Israeli governments since Yitzhak Rabin in the early 1990s took the first steps of any Israeli government to include them in the coalition.

The Israeli media, while reporting that police and the army are making preparations in case longer-range rockets start landing in Ashdod, north of Ashkelon, meanwhile preferred a scandal over the dilemmas of the Gaza problem. The tabloids devoted much more space to a scandal involving President Moshe Katsav than to all the issues regarding Gaza and the Palestinians. Katsav is said to have complained to Attorney General Menachem Mazuz about a former employee of the president’s bureau. Reports say the woman threatened Katsav to accuse of him sexual harassment if he did not reinstate her at her job, and that Katsav has a tape recording of the threat. Mazuz is now awaiting the documentation Katsav is said to have. It may all be a storm in a teacup. Or it could be the beginning of an ignominious ending to a rather colorless presidency by the former Likud politician who has been touted as the great hope of the former ruling party when he finishes his term.

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