Today's Situation

The Gazan quagmire Friday, July 07, 2006

Indeed, some military correspondents were saying bluntly that the operation is not so much meant to stop the Qassams as to exact a price from the Palestinian militia that insist on firing the rockets. The tactic of the operation is to provoke the armed men into coming out of hiding places to engage the better protected Israeli forces inside the armored vehicles. It was sad but not surprising to learn that Israel’s only fatality so far in the fighting was apparently killed by friendly fire.

So far, despite calls from the Hamas interior minister’s spokesman (the minister himself has gone underground, fearing Israeli assassination) for Palestinian Authority regular security forces to join the fighting against the Israelis, so far the regulars are staying out of the fight, leaving it to the irregulars.

The operation in northern Gaza, much of it taking place in the empty fields of rubble left behind by Israel when it evacuated the settlements of that area, had nothing to do with freeing Corporal Gilad Shalit, taken captive in a Palestinian guerrilla operation two Sundays ago just inside Israel opposite southeastern Gaza, where he was stationed at an IDF position outside Kibbutz Kerem Shalom.

The guerrillas, from Hamas’s military wing, the Popular Resistance Committee and the Islamic Army, made demands for the release of all the women and under 18 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel just for information about Shalit’s condition. But Israel rebuffed that demand. Since then, it has become evident that Shalit was lightly wounded during the firefight in which he was captured, and Islamic clergy have issued religious orders that he not be harmed.

Hamas sources in Gaza, meanwhile, claiming not to know where Shalit is being held, or having any prior knowledge of the planned raid that captured him, are confirming reports that the captors are now ready to be ‘flexible.’ The latest offer being made by the Hamas is said to be release of all the women prisoners and elderly prisoners who have been in jail since before the Oslo accords. Israeli government officials still say no deal. Shalit’s father, who has been cooperative with the Israeli government until now, and appeared remarkably self-controlled to the press, has lately begun saying bluntly that Israel should make a deal to release his son.

Prime Minister Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, backed by Defense Minister Amir Peretz, are meanwhile saying no to any deal. At least that’s what they are saying in public, explaining that any deal struck with the kidnappers would be an invitation for more such hostage-taking incidents. Maybe. It’s not as if there isn’t plenty of motivation on the Palestinian side for kidnapping Israelis, whether soldiers or civilians. After all, Israel has been trading prisoners it holds in exchange for hostages for years.

True, Israel also conducted the spectacular rescue operation of hostages held in Entebbe, Uganda, 30 years ago this week, and even before that, freed a Sabena airliner plane from hijackers after it landed at the country’s international airport. But those were extraordinary cases, exceptions to the rule. Indeed, on several other occasions, most infamously at Maalot, Israeli military rescue attempts of hostages turned into catastrophes.

But Olmert, who was elected on the promise of a unilateral withdrawal from most of the West Bank, has found another issue where he wants to make his mark -- it’s no secret that he wants ‘to change the rules’ of the game in the Middle East, to make it clear to terrorists that hostage-taking will not pay.

It’s doubtful now that he will get to conduct his unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, and with each passing day without a resolution of either the Gilad Shalit case or an end to the Qassams -- there were four overnight and another this morning -- the limited political credit he and his new party Kadima won in the election seems to be shrinking. Not that the Right, which is the majority of the opposition, seems to be winning much support. The latest polling shows that Kadima and its government partner Labor, have lost support, but to the amorphous undecided, not to the Likud and the parties to its Right.

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