Today's Situation

Back to Gaza Thursday, July 06, 2006

Although the Israeli military press was constantly reiterating that the move last night, the latest step in ‘Operation Summer Rains,’ was the largest single operation conducted by Israel in Gaza since last August’s withdrawal from Gaza, the move was highly restrained, and although it penetrated as much as six kilometers into Gaza, it did not involve direct moves against populated areas.

True, Gaza remains under hermetic siege -- though Israel was allowing about 100 trucks through the Karny Junction today, enabling delivery of foodstuffs and medicines -- and electricity is still cut off to large parts of the Strip. But the Israeli moves continue to be carefully calculated in terms of the amount of force being applied, as Israel tries to accomplish two things with one operation: freeing Gilad Shalit, the soldier held hostage since last Sunday, and putting an end to Palestinian rocket fire over the Gaza border into Israeli towns and cities.

There are reports in the Arab press that the three groups -- Hamas’ military wing, the Popular Resistance Committee and the hitherto unknown Islamic Army -- have lowered their demands, but as Arab affairs analyst Guy Bechor told Israel Radio today, ‘there are too many interests involved now to trust any of the reporting about the affair in the Arab press.’

For example, there have been reports that Hamas secretary general Khaled Mish’al, whom Israel -- and Palestinian politicians closer to Fateh than Hamas -- accuse of being the direct commander of the captors of the soldier, has moved with his family from Damascus to Algeria. If so, that would mean that the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad to toss Mish’al and his Hamas command out of Damascus had worked. But there is no confirmation of it from anywhere. There are also reports about continuing Egyptian efforts on a diplomatic deal, and Turkey, too, is involved, apparently hearing from Mish’al -- in Damascus -- that his organization is ready to be flexible. Other reports said the captors want Israel to announce a timetable for a prisoner release. But the Israelis are refusing to negotiate for the soldier’s release -- and according to Israeli analysts, that has shocked the Hamas, PRC and Islamic Army.

Meanwhile, the Americans are nowhere to be found. No special envoy is shuttling between Olmert and Abu Mazin (the Americans, like Israel, refuse to deal directly with Hamas), nor even winging to Damascus to put pressure on Assad. The Israelis are saying that the Americans are in favor of bringing down the Hamas government, and completely agree with Israel that no sovereign state can tolerate rocket fire at its cities. But Israeli officials are also admitting that the Americans have instructed the Israelis not to damage any more infrastructure (largely paid for by the West) in Gaza and to make sure the Palestinian population is not further debilitated by the Israeli pressure on the Hamas government.

It is not even certain that Israel wants the collapse of the Hamas government -- it is impossible to predict what will happen if it were to fall. ‘Do you know what will happen if the Hamas government falls?’ an Israel Radio broadcaster this morning asked Tzachi Hanegbi, the chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. ‘No,’ Hanegbi answered forthrightly, almost cheerfully, the going on to blame Hamas for the Qassams, the capture of Shalit, and Palestinian refusal to be ‘realistic.’

So, the IDF is said to be proceeding very cautiously, creating a new ‘security zone’ for northern Gaza, ostensibly to prevent rocket fire into Ashkelon. Israeli officials, like Hanegbi, say that the intention is not to remain in Gaza, just to make it difficult for the Palestinians to fire Qassams. Maybe it will work, for a little while at least, until the Palestinian engineers figure out how to make a longer-range rocket that can pass over the heads of the soldiers now inside Gaza.

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