Today's Situation

Rules of the game Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Expectations, of course, are for some dramatic Israeli move that will surprise the Palestinians. Most likely, the security cabinet will approve resumption of ‘pinpoint prevention’ -- targeted killings of suspected terrorists, possibly including political leaders from Hamas. And Hamas, an Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement (and a Hebrew word meaning ‘injustice’) warned that if Israel targets any of its people ‘rivers of blood’ will flow.

The Olmert government has made it clear it will not negotiate with Hamas (not that the Hamas government in Gaza has proposed direct negotiations at any stage -- and even if they did, it is not clear that they have any influence over the three organizations holding Cpl. Gilad Shalit, grabbed last Sunday at an Israeli position between Kibbutz Kerem Shalom and the Gaza border). Labor is now under attack from the Left for ‘growing a horn,’ a reference to Rhinoceros, playwright Eugene Ionesco’s play about conformism. Defense Minister Amir Peretz spoke passionately during the election campaign about the need for dialogue with the Palestinians. Neither he nor Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has had any direct contact with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas since the crisis broke out last Sunday.

Actually, according to the Israeli press, the crisis has been ongoing since the evacuation of Gaza, when Israel did not respond harshly to the very first Qassam that flew out of the Strip into the western Negev after the Israeli withdrawal. Maybe. But now, the hostage crisis over the corporal captured last week has merged into a Qassam crisis, and together it forms a third crisis that seems inevitable now -- an Israeli invasion of Gaza. But that guarantees much more bloodshed on both sides.

Meanwhile, given Washington’s own indifference or impotence, the only mediator with a chance of reaching a breakthrough in the crisis is Egypt, still working on an overall deal meant to release the hostage, end the Qassams, release Palestinian prisoners and maybe some other Israeli gesture of goodwill (something in short supply nowadays on both sides). Trouble is, Olmert is so committed to ‘changing the rules of the game,’ meaning no more deals with terrorists, and Hamas is so diffuse nowadays, divided between Hamas-Damascus, Hamas-Gaza, military Hamas and political Hamas, with it entirely unclear who is in charge, that even if there was the goodwill on either side, it would be very difficult to translate it into action.

So, the hawks seem to have the upper hand now, arguing that their brand of reason is the only reason worth considering, dismissing out of hand any suggestion for dialogue with the other side as the weak and humiliating postures of the cowardly. That’s apparently true as much for the Palestinians as the Israelis, with neither side having the courage to back down, each side promising it has all the time it takes to make the other surrender. True, Ismail Haniyeh keeps calling for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, but Israel keeps saying that it won’t negotiate with terrorists, and as far as Jerusalem is concerned, Haniyeh, elected prime minister or not, is one.

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