Today's Situation

Sderot strikes Monday, June 19, 2006

But Moyal’s only real action to protect the townspeople against the Qassams, which have killed two people in the town over the last four years but almost every night waken the town and during the day send people scuttling for shelter without almost any warning, has been to launch protests. He often demonstrated outside the prime minister’s office when Ariel Sharon was in office, as well as inside and outside the Knesset. Millions of extra funds have been funneled to the town because of the embarrassing complaining about the Qassams but little of it has shown up in the form, for example, of mini-concrete pillbox type shelters that could serve townspeople when the army’s ‘Red Dawn’ alarm is heard, signifying a Qassam will land within about 10-15 seconds.

Moyal’s latest plan of action is to ‘shut down’ the sleepy western Negev town of about 50,000, not letting anyone in or out, and that includes one of his predecessors at the Sderot mayor’s office, Defense Minister Amir Peretz. But the plan to start the strike today was foiled this morning, when President Moshe Katsav’s office announced the president would be visiting Sderot this afternoon. Kastav has no real power, but the office does have the moral authority of an ostensibly non-partisan approach, which in highly politicized Israel actually can mean some influence.

Not that there is much that Israel can do to stop the Qassams absolutely, not even if the Hamas and Fateh, as has been reported for the last two days, are on the verge of signing a new version of the Prisoners’ Document that would obviate the need for the national referendum, include a new hudna (ceasefire), implicit recognition of Israel by the Hamas, and control over the negotiations with Israel in the hands of the PLO (with Hamas -- and perhaps Islamic Jihad -- joining the umbrella group that has led the Palestinian liberation movement for the last 50 years). The Hamas government, reports say, would be replaced by a ‘national unity government.’ Perhaps the best sign of progress being made on the Palestinian side was that Mohammad Dahlan was taking part on behalf of Fateh in the talks regarding integration of the Hamas militia Palestinian armed forces. Dahlan, still considered a strongman of Gaza, has been disparaging of Hamas since before the elections but much more so since, but if he is taking part -- and seen shaking hands with PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, it must mean there’s more than talk in the Hamas-Fateh talks, as one Arab affairs commentator said last night.

Theoretically, a successful new national consensus document could lead to the European Union at least ending its embargo against aid to the Palestinian Authority, and if, as it now seems, PA President Mahmoud Abbas emerges from the fray as the most powerful of the Palestinian political leaders, more like a French president than an Israeli one, the Americans might also want to sign on to a more conciliatory approach toward the Palestinians -- and more serious nudging of Israel toward undertaking serious talks with Abbas.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, in any case, was meeting today with European Union commissioner for external affairs Benita Ferrero-Waldner, who will be presenting the Israelis the European plan for funneling money to the destitute Palestinians without the money reaching the Hamas. Livni has said that Israel will review the plan and if it meets Israel’s approval, Jerusalem might even consider adding some or all of the tax money it has been collecting on behalf of the Palestinians but not handing over to them since Hamas was elected.

Meanwhile, no date has been set for Abbas to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. But Olmert’s defense minister’s wife, Ahlama Peretz, published a front page article today in Maariv saying that the only way to end the Qassam fire is through dialogue with the Palestinians.

But as said, even that might not stop all the Qassams. Even if a new hudna is announced, it is not clear that the PA government, whether Hamas or national unity, will have the political strength to use force to stop small rogue groups of Palestinian gangs from firing off Qassams on their own. The PA under Fateh didn’t, the Hamas announced when it took office it wouldn’t -- and even if the new ‘national consensus’ document wins Islamic Jihad approval of the article that says Palestinians will cease attacks inside the 1967 Green Line borders (still not likely), there are plenty of angry Palestinians with a grudge and a rocket in the refugee camps of Gaza.

It’s sort of like the Israeli politician’s problem with the wildcat settlers of the ‘illegal outposts.’ They clearly obstruct Israeli interests, staining Israel’s already strained reputation for being a law-abiding country, but despite promises made to the Americans, including in the road map that Israel says the Palestinians don’t abide by, there has been no concerted effort to remove the outposts or arrest the settlers in them who quite openly harass army, police and Palestinians.

Amir Peretz met last night with leaders from the Yesha Council, which has very little moral authority over the radical settlers of the illegal outposts ever since the council failed to stop the Gush Katif evacuation from Gaza. From grand talk of only a few weeks ago when Peretz was ordering the army to prepare to remove all the illegal outposts, the number now under discussion seems to be limited to the four most unruly of the wildcat outposts. The Yesha Council people delivered a presentation showing what they said was government complicity and encouragement of the outposts. Peretz was said to be firm about getting rid of what he calls the ‘friction’ outposts, which Justice Minister Haim Ramon calls the ‘criminal outposts’ but Peretz also supposedly seemed ready to negotiate with them about many of the outposts.

The big problem is reaching an agreement on just how many there are -- Talia Sasson, who wrote a special report on the issue for the former premier, Sharon, said there are more than 100, and decried the cooperation between the government, army and settlers, at grabbing privately owned Palestinian land, illegal construction, and deliberate indifference to the law. The Yesha people say there are only 24 outposts that they count as illegal, but they count the appearance of a government minister from any party at dedication ceremonies for an outpost as proof of government sponsorship. And it all begs the question of the legality of any of the settlements.

Two slightly bright spots on the horizon, however, were these: the Palestinian energy minister has announced plans for the construction of an electrical transponder close to the Egyptian border, to enable the Gaza electricity grid to be connected to Egypt’s, instead of exclusively Israel’s. Not only would it reduce Gazan dependence on Israel for its electricity, Egyptian charges for electricity, said the minister, were 44 percent lower than what Israel charges, presumably because of Egyptian oil production. He said the PA would be seeking international funding for the project. Another bright note is also energy related. Israel and British Petroleum are supposedly to resume negotiations for Israeli purchases of natural gas found off the Gazan coast. Sharon refused to consider buying that gas, charging that Palestinian revenues from it (10 percent of BP’s sales from the Gazan gas) would go to terrorism. Instead, he had his energy minister strike a deal for Egyptian gas. But energy-hungry Israel can always use another source of natural gas, especially one so close and Olmert apparently is not as worried as Sharon about doing business with BP even if it means the Palestinians make some money off Israel.

And one historic breakthrough might be in the offing: the International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent will vote this week to recognize Israel’s Magen David Adom (the shield of David, the six pointed star) -- if it appears in a red frame that stands on its corner, an ostensibly neutral image. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society will also be accepted into the organization.

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