Today's Situation

A first and last budget? Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Not that anyone was predicting the immediate collapse of the Olmert government. But the tension between the prime minister and defense minister, who announced a ‘strategic partnership’ upon the formation of the government, has been evident from almost the first day in office. Peretz has tried to turn some defense establishment policies toward a more conciliatory approach to the Palestinians, particularly emphasizing the need to engage PA President Mahmoud Abbas in dialogue.

Olmert has rebuffed many of the Peretz proposals -- only to adopt them later. Indeed, it’s not only on defense matters that Olmert seems determined to take the wind out of Peretz’s sails. Labor’s chairman came up with an idea to ‘borrow’ NIS 350 million from next year’s health budget to cover the costs of more drugs to be added to the health basket this year, to help put an end to a heart-wrenching hunger strike by cancer patients outside the government offices. Two days ago, Olmert mocked the Peretz proposal, but yesterday announced it as his own.

Peretz did not have an easy time entering the defense ministry, but since he’s been there he has managed to win over many key players from inside the army as well as the defense industries. A key element has been his readiness to accept -- and promote -- the idea of a multi-year budget for the defense establishment, something the defense ministry has been pushing for years to no avail. With a champion for that cause now in the minister’s seat, the army was hoping to rationalize its purchasing, development and manpower budgets for the coming years.

But headlines on Sunday blared that the treasury had already decided on a NIS 1.7 billion cut in the defense budget for this year. True, Peretz campaigned on a promise that NIS 2 billion could be cut from the defense budget -- but over four years -- with the money that is saved used to step up social welfare spending. Never, he said yesterday, has a decision on a budget cut in any ministry been taken unilaterally, without consultations and discussions before. The treasury immediately backed down, under pressure from Olmert, and NIS 1.7 billion turned into NIS 500 million, a little more than $100 million, and less than a single percent of the overall defense budget.

The government will last for now. But expectations of it lasting all four years of its term have dwindled to nil. Presumably, it will last through the year and maybe into next year. But it has already proven itself to be easily pressured by determined hunger strikers, plagued by infighting and ministers who undermine each other, and appears to lack any agenda except for the so-called convergence plan, which will need a much more unified leadership to execute. One thing that could hasten its demise is if PA President Abbas succeeds in forcing the Hamas to accept the international conditions for ending the PA government’s isolation. Already there are cracks in the Israeli establishment regarding how to deal with Hamas -- former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy, for example, is arguing that Israel should judge Hamas by its deeds and not its rhetoric, and notes that so far, Hamas has indeed kept a ceasefire against Israel that has lasted more than a year. Speaking to Channel One last night, he pointed out that it is mistaken to consider Hamas and even Hizbollah as part of the al Qaida network, since they are very territorial in outlook. Indeed, Hamas explicitly rejected expressions of support from bin Ladin, while Hizbollah, he says, appears on its way to being disarmed by political forces in Lebanon, which is going through a democratization process. Not that they are not implacable enemies, but ‘in the Middle East,’ said the man who served five Israeli prime ministers in the leading intelligence role, ‘the evil can become saints and the saints can become evil.’ In other words, he explained, ‘noting is permanent.’

Meanwhile, however, one thing remains permanent: the routine continues in the territories: seven Palestinians were killed in IDF raids both in Gaza and the West Bank overnight. A commando unit, on a rare ground mission into Gaza, killed at least three members of an Islamic Jihad cell that was setting up Qassam rocket launchers aimed into Israel just over the border in the area where the settlement of Dugit had once been in the northwest corner of Gaza. A helicopter missile killed a fourth Gazan, and possibly a fifth, said Palestinians. In separate incidents in the West Bank, three Palestinians were killed. All three were wanted man who were armed and resisted arrest, said the army. The Palestinians confirmed that all the dead men were armed members of anti-occupation militia forces.

The other development over the weekend was a day of clashes between Hizbollah rockets and Israeli counterattacks, and it ended at 5 p.m. on Sunday almost as abruptly as it began at 5 in the morning. The incident began with an apparent attempt by a Lebanese guerilla group to retaliate for what they claim was an Israeli car bomb assassination last week of an Islamic Jihad man south of Beirut. An Israeli retaliation for the initial pair of rockets took out some Popular Front positions, giving Hizbollah a reason to launch its own ‘defensive’ attack on Israeli positions -- including a direct hit on a key IDF command and control station on the border. One soldier was wounded in the entire affair.

The Israelis said the Hizbollah cried ‘uncle’ first, as a result of precision Israeli targeting of all the Hizbollah positions along the border, with the IDF claiming it used the occasion of the Hizbollah breaking the ceasefire to destroy all the Lebanese guerrilla army’s forts within sight of the Israeli border. But Hizbollah men were seen back at the forts yesterday, making repairs. Hizbollah is said to have at least ten thousand rockets, provided by Iran through Syria, and at least some are said to have a range that could reach Tel Aviv. On the other hand, those long-range rockets are in the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards still in Lebanon, despite UN Security Council orders for those armed Iranians to leave Lebanon -- and for Hizbollah to disarm. But while the pressure from the Security Council doesn’t seem to bother the Hizbollah, pressure from domestic politics in Lebanon may be doing the job, as Halevy said.

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