The routine suspects, Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Naturally, attention in Israel was paid to those events, but the big story here is now the elections; non stop polling, pages of gossipy 'insider' tales that say little to anyone except those jostling for the coverage as the various votes and nomination assignment committees appointments approach. Thus, the headline in Yedioth today was all about how Shaul Mofaz's defection to Ariel Sharon's party, Kadima, sent most Mofaz voters to Silvan Shalom, but Binyamin Netanyahu is still in the lead to capture the Likud chair. Rightist-Religious Moshe Faiglin shows up with 20 percent of those who told pollsters they are keeping their Likud membership and plan to vote next week. Some of those would-be voters in the Likud vote are presumed to be Sharon proxies working his wiles to further bring down the Likud. But they are just pawns in a psychological war. On another front, there are reports about a possible 61-seat surprise coalition to vote Sharon out of office and postpone elections to November. Peretz was said to have been offered the premiership by the Likud, with the far-Right and religious said to be joining if the putative government only focuses on 'social affairs.' Peretz doesn't mind repeating he turned down the offer, because it puts the words prime minister near his name, but it's a red herring in the current campaign.

The only thing that counts right now in Israel is whether the Israeli voter is really going to elect a one-man government by a landslide next March 28; the polls say that it is most definitely going to do so. But so much can happen in the 105 days left to the elections.

Like today's poverty report: It states the obvious to all – the rich are getting richer and that's only the top ten percent of society, which earns at outrageously high American levels for executives, while almost everyone else must get by on as little as $200 a month and handouts. It points out that Israelis of European origin earn a third more than those Israelis whose origins are from Asia or Africa. Poverty grew, the middle class shrank further, says the report. That's not news to anyone here who takes a bus to work.

On the Arab stories, the reporting was straightforward – Israel's official policy is that it prefers a weak Bashar over any attempt to bring him down, lest Iraqi-style chaos, Iranian-style fundamentalism, or military junta take over and heat up the border, as it's called here, meaning clashes on the Syrian border, which has been quiet since 1973. On the Lebanese border, Israel will continue to expect Hizbollah violence.

As for the Palestinians, the latest polls say that Fateh will win at least fifty percent of the vote in the January elections, but much depends on the final list that Abu Mazin, the Palestinian president and PLO chairman, presents as the Fateh's nominees. Barghouti could yet replace Abu Ala as prime minister on the list, and there's pressure to dump many of the ministers who date back to Oslo era Palestinian governments. There are already breakaway parties being formed, most notably, Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi's supposedly liberal-secular, pro-Western party, which is in opposition to both Fateh and Hamas.

But as unpredictable are the Israeli polls this year, so are the Palestinian polls. Here, Kadima looks promising, but even its own strategists don't believe the high rating its getting – a third of the electorate says they'll vote for it, leaving crumbs to all the other parties, none of which seem to be in genuine merger mood even on the Right, where 'unity' is one of the key values all the parties promote. Indeed, the Right is even more divided than the Left.

There, on the Palestinian side, it appears that the most democratic process in the Arab world is taking place right across the street, but few in Israel pay much attention. Nor do many – except the friends and relatives of the soldiers on duty – pay much attention to the daily story of a dozen or two 'terror suspects' arrested in the West Bank. Only when someone is wounded or killed, does the public notice the occupation continues in the West Bank, while around Gaza, Israel still controls the flow of goods and people between Gaza and the West Bank. Today, by the way, the army was allowing some 25,000 Palestinian laborers and merchants into Israel, and about 6,000 from Gaza. The Gazans really need the work most, but the Israelis are most suspicious of them.

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