Same old, same old, Thursday, December 08, 2005

Ironically, the Palestinians have been conducting arrests of Islamic Jihad figures over the last 72 hours -- according to Israel Radio, some 33 Islamic Jihad activists have been arrested. But it's unclear how long they will remain in custody. And for the Israelis, it's still not enough, apparently.

In any case, the Palestinians have a recourse – the Americans – and if the past is anything to judge by, the Americans will have to nudge Israel and the Palestinians (who are upset over the resumption of the Israeli assassination policy against those it considers terrorist leaders) back into dialogue.

The latest talks were imposed on the two sides by U.S. Secretary of State Condolezza Rice during a 48-hour visit last month. During it, she is said to have raised her voice, stamped her foot, and banged the table, telling the Israelis that they cannot keep finding security excuses not to relinquish their hold on Gaza, and telling the Palestinians they have to take action against the gunmen who openly parade in the streets with their weapons.

According to the deal hammered down by Rice, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is run by the Egyptians and Palestinians, with uniformed European Union observers and Israeli security watching via closed circuit TV what happens at the border crossing.

But that's a small part of the agreement, which also covered the 'safe passage' – a term Sharon refuses to use, because it was originally outlined in the Oslo accords, which he rejects – between the two parts of Palestinian territory, Gaza and the West Bank. The long-term talk is for either a rail connection across southern Israel, between Hebron and Gaza, or a road that is mostly below the land surface along a similar route, which would be exclusively used by the Palestinians and guarded by Israeli troops. But in the meanwhile, said the Rice agreement, Israel was going to allow convoys of buses to carry West Bankers and Gazans back and forth between the two areas.

For the Palestinians, that would be an improvement on a situation that has prevailed more or less since the early 1990s – closures, curfews, sieges and various other Israeli measures taken in the wake of security crises have essentially prevented families with relatives in both areas from getting together. Grandchildren from Ramallah can't visit their grandparents in Gaza, students from Gaza can't get to their colleges and universities in the West Bank, etc. Indeed, the only Palestinians who manage to make their way from Gaza to the West Bank and back are either VIPs, with special Israeli passes, or smugglers.

The bus convoy system was supposed to begin next week, but now will be suspended for some time – unless the Americans intervene forcefully. David Welch, Rice's assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, is due today in Israel for talks about a host of issues, including the safe passage convoys, the reopening of the Palestinian airport in Gaza, and ways to improve the transfer of goods in and out of Gaza through the Karni junction crossing, which is controlled by Israel.

The international pressure on Israel can be expected as early as next week, when an international conference on the economic rehabilitation of Gaza is due to take place in London. Israel can expect criticism not only of its decision to shut down talks about the issue, but also some of its demands, such as limiting travel between the two parts of the PA to Gazans only, and limiting their time in the West Bank to no more than 10 days.

But none of this is of interest to Israelis – or even most of the Israeli press this morning. Instead, it is election politics and almost nothing else – except local scandals involving the collapsing health services, violence in the schools, nannies who beat their wards, and various other tabloid-style reports – that interests the public.

The latest poll, taken after Hanegbi jumped ship to Kadima from Likud, shows Sharon's party taking 41 seats in the next Knesset, Labor taking 21, and Likud, under Netanyahu, taking 14 seats in the House. But there are too many variables now in play – and yet to be played – to decide right now that Sharon is guaranteed victory in the March elections. True, the security situation – meaning the suicide bombing in Netanya – has much to do with Sharon's current exalted status in the polls. But there is a growing sense, expressed today in op-eds in almost all the papers, that the corruption that made the Likud look so disgusting to voters, is moving to Kadima. There are 11 MKs under police suspicion, or indicted or convicted –and except for one Labor politician, Salah Tarif, who is awaiting a verdict in a case of alleged bribery, all the suspected MKs are divided evenly now between Likud and Kadima.

The attorney general has announced there will not be any postponements of investigations or prosecutions of political figures during the campaign. So, who knows what could yet burst into the open. There's still the mysterious Cyril Kern affair involving a million dollars transferred into the prime minister's family accounts; Omri Sharon goes into sentencing hearings in January after he plea bargained a deal that wiped out some counts of the original indictments against him but left perjury and falsifying corporate documents in place; Hanegbi is likely to be indicted sometime in the coming weeks; and the list goes on.

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