Peres and Peretz, Thursday, December 01, 2005

Shimon Peres' departure from the Labor Party prompted a lot of purple prose this morning about the world's oldest statesman, about how he embodies both tragedy and vitality, as both the worst and best face of politics, in Israel, at least. But it also prompted a meeting between Labor's new leader, Amir Peretz and the former prime minister who was his archrival in the party until now, Ehud Barak.

A Haaretz poll this morning shows that Peres' throw of support to Ariel Sharon (and not explicitly to Kadima, the party named Forward that Sharon established last month when he walked out of the Likud) has increased the likelihood for a third of the electorate that they will vote for Kadima. But predictions about what will turn out on March 29 based on polls on the first day of December, are foolish, especially when the topsy turvy Israeli political arena yielded that meeting this morning between Peretz and Barak.

Until now, they were seemingly sworn enemies in the party, but suddenly, seemingly, they are negotiating for a deal in which Barak accepts Peretz's leadership, at least for the coming term, presumably in exchange for Barak becoming defense minister in a Peretz government. It was their second meeting since Peretz won the party leadership.

Peres' move clearly made possible the newfound dialogue between Peretz and Barak, whom Peretz had called 'a Bibi Netanyahu clone,' while Barak charged Peretz used illicit means to fill the ranks of Labor with voters. Nothing has been settled yet, Barak said to reporters as he left the meeting at party headquarters in south Tel Aviv. Indeed, it is still not certain that Barak will even run in the party's upcoming primaries and much depends on where Barak comes out in the list after that vote.

It's common knowledge that Peretz controls more than 50 percent of the party rank and file, bringing in 25,000 new members for the last party vote, which culminated in his victory over Peres, and another 25,000 have joined since. A word from Peretz, and Barak could end up far down the Knesset nomination list, or high up on the list. It's also common knowledge that Peretz has several people he wants to see elected to the Knesset to replace some of the tired old faces in Labor.

Winning over Ehud Barak is a risky move for Peretz, since Barak is identified with the failure of the peace process, with the outbreak of the intifada, with the tragic results of the October 2000 demonstrations by Israeli Arabs, which turned into rioting that saw 13 of those Israelis killed by police. Barak alienates the classic Israeli Left.

But Barak on board the growing Peretz bandwagon, however, could be an excellent countermove for Peretz against the Peres move, which was so obviously a vote of no confidence in Peretz merely because it was vote of confidence in Sharon. Barak on board would shore up Peretz's security credentials, moving Labor closer to the center without giving up Peretz's clearly dovish stamp and his unabashed social democratic values. Indeed, for Barak, being associated with Peretz – and accepting his leadership – could be a move toward rehabilitation in a party that clearly didn't want him back after he lost to Sharon in 2001.

Meanwhile, in the Likud, Netanyahu maintains a lead over Shaul Mofaz -- and all the others. At some point in the Likud leadership struggle, Mofaz and Silvan Shalom might have to decide that they could align to stop Netanyahu – both have gone on record saying he should not be prime minister, while he keeps saying Likudniks shouldn't attack Likudniks. Trouble is, there's another 30 percent of the remaining Likud rank and file (and nobody really knows how many of those there are) who will split their votes between the three Rightist candidates in Likud – Uzi Landau, Israel Katz, and Moshe Faiglin, none of whom will drop out of the race.

The conventional wisdom is that the Likud is not out for the count and after it has chosen a leader, it will start rising in the polls. But Netanyahu has cornered himself into the Right, while Mofaz is colorless and Shalom irrelevant except to a few hundred central committee members. Uzi Landau will not accept anything other than a pure Herut ideology at the head of Likud, while Israel Katz has no pretensions about becoming party leader. He just wants to make sure his power in the party is noted. In short, brave talk by Likud leaders about how the party is going to bounce back from losing their leader, seems to be mostly bravado, not bragging.

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