The Peres quandary, Monday, November 28, 2005

Shimon Peres was winging his way to Barecelona today for the international conference on Middle East cooperation, the object of intense scrutiny by the political arena, where the betting this morning was in favor of him turning his back on his political home in Labor for the last 65 years, and throwing his support to Ariel Sharon.

This morning, Israel Radio's diplomatic correspondent, Shmulik Tal, known for his somewhat sycophantic reporting of Sharon's office, was insisting that Peres was on his way to Sharon's side. But Peres' own voice was heard saying that he faced a difficult decision – and there are many in Labor who still believe that the world's oldest statesmen will suddenly turn his back on the party he served for so long. Yitzhak Herzog, for example, went on the air this morning to say that after hearing Peres at the Rabin memorial rally urging young people to serve the country 'it would not be educational' for Peres to walk out on the party.

Haim Ramon, one of the most creative political minds in the country – he was first to propose unilateral withdrawal from territories, was the first to propose the separation fence, and most recently, is considered the architect of the 'big bang' in Israeli politics in which Sharon and Peres form a new party – was reportedly on the same flight with Peres. Ramon did jump ship to Sharon's party, Kadima, and will no doubt try to use all his rhetorical skills to persuade Peres to throw his weight behind Sharon.

Ramon's argument against the new Labor Party leader, Amir Peretz, is that he lacks experience to be prime minister. That's the last thing that can be said about Peres and Sharon.

Peres says that he will only do what is right for the state of Israel. But he does face a dilemma. Peretz offered him the traditional seat of honor for politicians put out to pasture in Israel – the 120th slot in the Labor Party list. But Peretz also offered Peres the 'presidency' of the Labor Party – and made at least two public appeals, including in his victory speech – for Peres to help him. However, Peretz doesn't really want Peres in the Knesset, and at most would use him as a 'special envoy.'

It's not clear why Peres needs the hassle of local politics. The Nobel Peace Laureate (with Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, for the Olso accords) is a much sought after speaker at the most prestigious international conferences. His Peres Peace Center is very active in joint Israeli-Arab economic development projects, which he believes are the key to making a peaceful Middle East. And he could always get a big advance for a new book. Some say he is a 'force of nature,' others call him incorrigibly political, and some say that what he longs for most is the kind of public adoration, if not love, that was enjoyed by the two politicians he was closest to – David Ben Gurion and Rabin.

His off and on leadership of the Labor Party since the party's 1977 defeat to the Likud both saved the party from its demise but contributed to its decline, as his presence at the top blocked the way of entire generations of potential leaders. Dozens of politicians with prime ministerial potential left the party over the years, frustrated by his refusal to step aside – and by his insistence on national unity governments to guarantee Labor's seats in the government. And there is no doubt that if he was not defeated by Amir Peretz earlier this month, Peres would have kept the party in the Sharon coalition, with Labor continuing to lose votes to Likud, Shinui, Meretz – anything other than Labor.

But now Peretz, not Peres heads the party, and it is rapidly changing its face, drawing a new generation of voters who traditionally would have voted Likud or Shas but hear and see in Peretz an authentic representative who cares about their needs. The poor, the working class, the rapidly dwindling middle class and the traditional Left (including Arab voters, and some Haredim) are all drawn by Peretz – none of them would have voted for Peres in these coming elections.

Peres is promising he will decide what he will do after the Barcelona conference, later in the week. The betting is on him joining Sharon. Considering what his brother, Gigi, said this morning on Army Radio, that might be a safe bet. 'Peretz and his people are a foreign body in the Labor Party, like General Franco in Spain," Gigi Peres told Army Radio in an interview. 'They were the Falangists who came from southern Spain,' who came to infiltrate as a fifth column into Madrid, and destroyed the magnificent republic.' Referring to Peretz' former Knesset faction, Gigi Peres said 'This game is entirely clear - the One Nation people came from North Africa, took over, and shot them in the back.'

Meanwhile, if a Peres departure from Labor signals a generational change – as Peretz promises – the primaries voting in Fateh in the territories appears to be a rout of the older 'Tunis' generation.

It's not merely that Marwan Barghouti won what probably will be first place in the party list for the Palestinian Legislative Council. Dozens of old-timer cronies of Yasser Arafat have been voted out of positions of power inside Fateh – and the campaign has not been about how to deal with Israel so much as how to get rid of corruption. Today the primaries continue in Gaza, tomorrow they are due to be held in more West Bank towns – and in East Jerusalem. Public Security Minister Gideon Ezra said there would not be any ballot boxes in East Jerusalem, and that the Fateh voters can vote in Abu Dis and other Arab suburbs of Jerusalem.

If the anti-corruption campaign run by the younger generation of Fateh activists continues to draw success as it did over the weekend, it will be a blow to Hamas, which is counting on public disgust with the corruption in the Palestinian Authority's bureaucracy for its votes in the January 25th elections. It almost sound like the Israeli elections…

Yitzhak Rabin's Last Speech, which he delivered at the Tel Aviv peace rally on Nov. 4 1995

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