Campaign swings, Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Peretz is meeting with Peres this afternoon. Sharon did not invite Peres to join the new ‘National Responsibility’ party Sharon announced on Monday, and Peres, peeved by both his loss to his own protégé, Peretz, and insulted by Sharon’s backhanded non-invitation, has leaked ahead of the meeting with Peretz that he plans to remain active in Labor Party politics.

So far, he is not asking for the party to guarantee him the second spot in the list. Peretz may say he wants Peres’ help, but the last thing the new Labor leader – who keeps rising in the polls – needs is Shimon Peres’ backroom maneuverings behind Peretz’s back. On the other hand, Peres’ international stature could be helpful for Peretz if Labor wins the elections – something unthinkable only two weeks ago, but now more likely, for example, than a Likud victory.

The Tunis-born Shalom and the Iran-born Mofaz are running for Likud leadership on vague platforms promising fidelity to Likud values, continuation of the peace process, and more compassion for the poor. But everyone knows that they are really running on their status as Mizrahi-Sephardim, trying to counter the Moroccan-born Peretz’s appeal to the very underclass of poor non-European Israelis who have been voting for the Likud since 1977 as a protest against the ‘Ashkenazi (Labor) Alignment’ and to counter Netanyahu’s Ashkenazi-Thatcherite image.

But with Peretz at its head, Labor is quickly shedding its image as a party of oldsters from Europe only interested in sitting in government and uninterested in the problems faced by the ordinary people of Israel while Netanyahu – and the Likud -- is under attack from all directions. Thus, when the bomb shelters of Likud bastion Kiryat Shmona failed to open automatically as they were supposed to this week when Hezbollah launched rockets against Israel to mark Lebanese Independence Day, angry residents made clear that they were fed up with Likud rule, announcing to every passing microphone that they were voting Amir this time.

True, such threats against Likud smugness have been heard in the past, but the emerging constellation of a three-bloc political arena (Labor-Left, Sharon-Center, Likud-Right) make such an option possible. But there’s no doubting the public’s disapproval of Likud politicians. A poll on public perception of corruption showed that while Sharon and his son Omri are considered the most corrupt, the next top five most corrupt politicians in Israel are all from Likud or from Sharon’s new party. But as we said, polls nowadays are not trusted in Israel.

Meanwhile, stirring the pot – or shifting the spin – a top Sharon adviser, Eyal Arad, has told the Guardian newspaper that Sharon’s policy throws out the traditional ‘land for peace’ formula that has shaped the peace process since 1977, and replaces it with ‘Palestinian independence for security.’

It’s not clear what that really means, of course – and even Sharon has said bluntly, most recently this week, that any agreement will mean Israeli evacuation of some settlements in the West Bank, so Arad can’t possibly mean a non-territorial solution. And considering that whatever Sharon – or Arad – has in mind, it will have to pass American approval (let alone Palestinian approval), it is unlikely that the Arad comments are anything more than an attempt to reshape the political debate away from ‘back to the ’67 lines’ as the peace formula.

Thus, while Likud politicians claw at each other, Labor is displaying remarkable unity behind Peretz, and Sharon is busy trying to fill the ranks of his new party. Former Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter was briefly caught by a Channel 10 camera this week, and indicated he might not be jumping so quickly into politics as everyone assumes. Meanwhile, the Likud ministers in the government who did not join Sharon, remain in government, deciding what they will do only after they elect a new chairman in mid-December.

Sharon could fire them all, of course, but he would have to name at least a defense minister from among the MKs in the current Knesset. The reason: the Kahan Commission of 1983, which investigated the Sabra and Shatilla massacres in Beirut, ruled that Sharon was not fit to be defense minister. That won’t prevent him from overseeing – and making all the necessary decisions, as he does nowadays with political tyro Mofaz as defense minister – any MK he might choose to head the defense ministry. There’s betting Sharon might name Tzippi Livne, the justice minister as temporary defense minister. More likely, Meir Sheetrit might get the nod. Or even Haim Ramon, the Labor Party MK credited with conceiving of the ‘big bang’ – Ramon joined Sharon’s party today, turning his back on the Labor Party. Ramon gave up his Knesset seat to do so.

Finally, the Palestinian political arena is no less tempestuous this week, as several ministers and top officials were forced to resign so they can run in the upcoming January elections for a new Palestinian Legislative Council. According to Palestinian polls, Jibril Rajoub, running in the Hebron district, seems to lead in popularity. But who trusts polls nowadays?

Yitzhak Rabin's Last Speech, which he delivered at the Tel Aviv peace rally on Nov. 4 1995

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