The election spinning begins, Thursday, November 17, 2005

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon met with newly elected Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz this morning, agreeing that the elections should be held as soon as possible and agreeing to form a committee to work on an agreed date. After the meeting Peretz said that any date between the end of February and the end of March is suitable for Labor, while Sharon's office issued a statement trying to blame Peretz for 'unnecessary early elections.' Sharon reportedly told Peretz that he was making a big mistake in demanding elections now, but if Israel is going to elections, they should be held as soon as possible.

The attacks on Peretz from the Likud continue unabated, but even the most diehard Likud activist knows that uniting to attack Peretz will not solve the problem in the ruling party. Sharon held a Knesset faction session yesterday at which various MKs – including Binyamin Netanyahu – attacked Peretz and declared fealty to party unity.

But at the end of the session, which was not full of the usual acrimony that has characterized Likud faction session for the last two years, Sharon said bluntly, 'Let's put our cards on the table – nobody has changed their minds,' meaning the rebels remain the rebels, Netanyahu remains a challenger (who continues to lose popularity – a poll today in Maariv shows Netanyahu at the head of the Likud can't beat Peretz at the head of Labor), and Sharon remains sphinx-like about his intentions.

He has not completely ruled out forming a new centrist party, though not because he is afraid of losing to Netanyahu in Likud primaries. Instead, he is worried that even if he heads the party, the Likud central committee will nominate a host of 'rebels' who will buck any attempt he might make to advance the political process with the Palestinians. Meanwhile, despite much effort by Likud spokesmen to belittle Peretz, the polls -- admittedly unreliable since they didn't predict his victory in Labor – show that his leadership in Labor is taking hold.

A poll reported today by Israel Radio said that as opposed to only a month ago, a majority of Labor Party members now believes the party has a chance to win the elections. And the Maariv poll shows Labor winning 33 seats against the Likud's 33 seats if Netanyahu were to head Likud, while against Sharon at the head of the Likud a Peretz led Labor still manages to bring in 28 seats in the Knesset, with Likud winning 35. Pollster Yossi Vadana explained, 'Sharon is very popular, the Likud is very unpopular.'

Peretz is already campaigning full time, and his message attacks the Likud for corruption and indifference to the voter, and attacks Sharon for not taking responsibility for how economic policies have deepened poverty. The Likud's only response so far is that Peretz is a 'radical socialist' with 'no experience' and 'delusions of grandeur.'

Labor is the most united it has been in years – at least on the surface. The only thing that seemingly divides Labor nowadays is whether Shimon should be automatically given the Number 2 slot in the party or should he once and for all give up party politics. Ironically, a similar debate is underway in the Likud about Netanyahu – where the acrimony and distrust runs much deeper than in Labor since the Likud is in power and there is much at stake.

The election date committee formed by Sharon and Peretz is comprised of Likud whip Gideon Saar and Labor whip Ephraim Sneh, who along with Labor's secretary general, MK Eitan Cabel has emerged as a power because he accepted Peretz's leadership without reservation. Sharon wants to meet with all the faction heads before making a final decision on the date.

The Saar-Sneh committee and Sharon want a date set before Monday, when the Knesset is slated to a vote on a bill to disperse. If that bill does not pass for whatever reason, it will take six months before a new bill to disperse the House can be presented, so both sides want to make sure there is an agreement on a date and a majority for that vote. This weekend the phone lines will be burning up as the politicians consult. The betting is on February 28, March 7, March 21 or March 28. We'll see.

Yitzhak Rabin's Last Speech, which he delivered at the Tel Aviv peace rally on Nov. 4 1995

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