'A big step forward', Tuesday, November 15, 2005

In a remarkable turn of events, Condoleezza Rice finally did what the Bush administration vowed it would never do – roll up its sleeves and dig into the tiny details of an Israeli-Palestinian negotiation to make sure an agreement is reached. True, the deal that Rice knocked heads together on both the Israeli and Palestinian side, enabling, it's said, the opening of the 'safe passage' between Gaza and the West Bank, an opening of the Gaza-Egypt border, and the start of construction of a Gaza deep water sea port, is not a dramatic breakthrough to full-scale peace negotiations between the sides.

But Rice rightfully called it a 'big step forward' after she persuaded Israel to climb down off its high horse regarding the security arrangements in Rafah, and persuaded the Palestinians to drop their demands to deny Israel any access to security information from the Gaza-Egypt crossing. She has untangled a major traffic jam on the way to the implementation of the roadmap.

As this was being written, the details of the deal are unknown. But the trappings around them – Quartet envy James Wolfensohn's threats to resign, Rice's use of her time in Israel for the dedication of the Yitzhak Rabin Center for Israel Studies to look into the details of the stalled negotiations over Palestinian freedom of movement – were clear.

Surprising, however, was how she went from saying at her joint press conference with PA President Mahmoud Abbas that an agreement was 'in sight,' to deciding to postpone her trip to South Korea to get into the nitty gritty details of the negotiations, meeting all morning with Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz to hammer down the deal that was held up by what Wolfensohn – and many unnamed sources in the defense establishment over the past month – described as 'foot-dragging' resulting from a myopic Israeli view of security as purely military.

The American secretary of state's imposition of Washington's will on Israel and the PA prompted predictably shrill comments from the Israeli Right. Yuval Steinitz, the chairman of the once prestigious Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, issued a call to Prime Minister Sharon and Defense Minister Mofaz 'not to give into the American pressure.' No doubt there will be others with similar complaints as the details of the agreement are released. And on the Palestinian side, all the agreements in the world won't convince the gun-toting radicals of the Islamic Jihad, Hamas or Fateh's armed wing, which automatically reject anything that smacks of 'American-Zionist collusion.' True, the new agreement could yet also get bogged down in disputes over what was agreed. But the Rice involvement in the details of the negotiations is a marked departure from past policy by the Bush administration, which has tried to remain at arms length from the details of negotiations between the sides, even though history shows that only U.S. involvement brings about an agreement that can hold up.

However, none of this made much of an impact on the morning current events programs, which focused on domestic concerns: Omri Sharon's conviction under a plea bargain of a host of crimes associated with his management of his father's campaign to take over the Likud in 1999, and the ongoing efforts by Amir Peretz to take over the reins of power in the Labor Party and the opposition. The prosecution erased several criminal offenses, replacing them with administrative offences, but it insisted on Sharon taking the blame. Sentencing hearings begin in January. Speculation is that Sharon Jr. will drop out of electoral politics if sentenced to prison. His lawyers are hoping for a community service-type punishment.

Meanwhile, the Peretz move to take control over Labor took a surprising turn yesterday as he made each of Labor's eight ministers in the Sharon government sign letters of resignation that Peretz will keep in his pocket for negotiations with Sharon over an agreed date for new elections. Today's gambling is that the national elections will be held in March – but if the Sharon government falls due to a no-confidence vote, the elections are held in 90 days, which would mean mid-February.

Sharon is slated to meet with Peretz on Thursday morning, and immediately afterward, the prime minister will see Yosef 'Tommy' Lapid, head of Shinui and nominally head of the opposition -- at least until Labor formally quits the Sharon coalition. Lapid met with Peretz (whom Lapid routinely refers to as a 'radical socialist Bolshevik') this morning, and said afterward that Shinui will vote to bring down the government. But nothing is embedded in stone and it's not impossible to calculate that if the Peretz-Sharon meeting ends with Peretz pulling out the resignation letters, Lapid could easily step in to shore up the Sharon government.

Judging by the attacks on him from Likud and Shinui politicians, Peretz is a real threat to them. Both parties are using scare tactics and racism to dissuade voters from even considering Peretz. Shinui's Avraham Poraz is warning that if Peretz is elected he'll drive Israel back to the days of socialism – 'and Ahmed Tibi will be a minister.' The Likud's Limor Livnat is relying on code words like 'inexperienced' to describe the new Labor leader, who has been in politics for more than 25 years, as a mayor and MK, and has run the Histadrut for a decade. Indeed, he's had far more experience running large organizations and negotiating with both the private and public sector than Livnat had before she was named education minister, considered a relatively senior position in the govenrment. And from inside Labor, there are unnamed ministers being quoted as saying that Peretz is 'too Leftist' to get elected and that his mannerisms are 'embarrassing.'

Peretz is no Amram Mitzna, a relative novice with no real experience inside the Labor Party's backrooms. Peretz knows all the tricks from behind those closed doors – that's why he made the ministers sign the resignation letters. And meanwhile, the polls show that Peretz at the head of Labor brings Labor at least another eight Knesset seats. But who can rely on polls when none predicted Peretz would win Labor's contest against Shimon Peres.

Yitzhak Rabin's Last Speech, which he delivered at the Tel Aviv peace rally on Nov. 4 1995

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