Labor chooses, Wednesday, November 09, 2005

An estimated 100,00 members of the Labor Party go to the polls today to elect a chairman for their party and their candidate for prime minister. The polls leading up to the vote have proven to be unreliable, showing ether Shimon Peres winning by a landslide or in a neck and neck race with Amir Peretz. Binyamin Ben Eliezer meanwhile lags far behind – in the polls.

But the choice has rarely been clearer than the one being offered the Labor Party voters. On the one hand there’s Peres, the internationally renowned statesmen, the perpetually youthful octogenarian, whose visionary rhetoric is either inspiring or foolish, depending on one’s view. Peres always does well in the polls and never does well in an election; for decades he’s been hounded by bad luck derived from bad choices. Peres has cast his lot with the other old man of Israeli politics, Ariel Sharon, and the two of them have formed a partnership that has many in the Labor Party worried that despite all of the Likud’s problems, Labor is but a measly second fiddle to Sharon, doomed to evaporate in the coming elections.

On the other hand, there’s Amir Peretz, the unabashed social democrat who is even more dovish than Peres, speaks out in favor of equality for Arabs and Haredim, puts the poor at the head of his agenda, and speaks openly about creating a ‘civilian agenda’ for a society that is famously concerned first of all with security and has long preferred ex-generals as its leaders. Peretz, in his 50s, rose from the Negev town of Sderot, where he was elected mayor in the 1970s, to become head of the Histadrut trade-labor federation of unions. Once, the Histadrut was a natural launching pad for a Labor Party leader – David Ben Gurion turned it into one of the most powerful institutions in the country in his day. But as Israel shed its socialist origins in the 1980s and ‘90s, developing a yuppified middle class that looks to America for inspiration instead of the social democratic movements of Europe, the Histadrut declined in its power. Nonetheless, it gives him a political machine that he is not afraid to use in the current elections – everyone agrees that Peretz has the best organization in the field right now.

The charismatic Peretz, despite his inexperience in national government, appeals to the traditional Likud voters from the underclasses – and the Likud knows it. This morning, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, considered one of the smartest political foxes on the scene, openly worried that Peretz is a real threat to the Likud in the coming elections. Haaretz, the daily newspaper considered the voice of liberal and wealthy Israelis appears to favor Peretz over Peres because of the change he promises in the social and political agenda.

The conventional wisdom is that a low turnout is good for Peretz, whose organization apparently has a guaranteed 25,000 votes from the rank and file. But as the voting began it was difficult to make a prediction. Would Arab members of the party choose Peretz, for his egalitarian policies, over Peres the peace maker with little on his record to show concern about equality for Israeli Arab citizens? Will pensioners, considered in Peres’ pocket, decide that Peretz’s promises to fight for their rights, turn their backs on the politician who doesn’t believe in retirement? And then there are the kibbutzniks, less than 2 percent of the overall population of Israel but a key sector in the Labor Party map –will they vote for Peretz’s social-democratic line or for Peres’ promises to take the high road and remain in government, focusing on developing the Negev and Galilee instead of ‘Judea and Samaria.’

We’ll know around midnight tonight. But whatever the outcome, it is already clear that Peretz has become a force to be reckoned with in the Labor Party. He would pull the party out of the coalition with Sharon if he wins. But even if he loses this round, he has established himself as the alternative to the neo-conservative economic policies brought by the Likud to government for at least the last 25 years and especially in the last two years, and with nearly 20 percent of the Israeli public beneath the poverty line, his message will no doubt become part of the Labor Party message in the coming months as the country heads for national elections.

Yitzhak Rabin's Last Speech, which he delivered at the Tel Aviv peace rally on Nov. 4 1995

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