The lessons of Hadera, Thursday, October 27, 2005

Israel’s defense establishment got its orders from Prime Minister Sharon -- ‘a broad campaign’ against the terrorist groups. The IDF was gearing up to move back into the northern West Bank regions to conduct a house to house search with lists of names of suspects from Tulkarm to Jenin.

Nobody expects Mahmoud Abbas to arrest anyone – at least not until after the Palestinian elections – though he has broad support in Palestinian public opinion for his enunciated policy of ‘one PA, one law, one gun,’ an end to the gunplay in the Palestinian territories. The Islamic Jihad, however isn’t taking part in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, and doesn’t care about the elections. It regards itself as an avant garde cadre of Islam, followers of its founder, Fathi Shkaki, assassinated in Malta, presumably by the Mossad.

He wrote extensively about the unification of the Shiites and the Sunnis, a revolutionary concept considering the animosity between the two Islamic sects.

Islamic Jihad is meanwhile supported by only two governments: the Iran of the ayatollahs where the president openly calls for the destruction of the state of Israel (and which launched its first satellite today, from a Russian launchpad) and the secular Syrians, who provide shelter to Islamic Jihad Secretary General Ramadan Shelah, ostensibly the highest ranking officer of the Islamic Jihad, which devotes itself entirely to building more cells in the territories. It began in Gaza, but has been building power in the northernmost parts of the West Bank, from Tulkarm to Jenin. On Israel Radio, Reuven Paz, considered an expert on the global jihad movement and the Islamic Jihad, the group has one other ally – in the most militant wings of the secular Fateh movement, ostensibly the ruling party in the Palestinian Authority’s territories.

The general Israeli security move promised by Sharon and touted in the press both print and electronic, probably therefore also includes Mossad activity – but even the activist Meir Dagan, who is reportedly in the midst of a bureaucratic battle inside the secret service, knows that right now, the Americans want Israel to keep a low profile on the Syrian front as the Mehlis investigation into the Hariri assassination proceeds.

Everyone knows that the Israeli military reaction to the Hadera operation, whether sweeping or pinpoint, will not ‘eradicate the terrorist infrastructure,’ but at most lop off the current generation of 20-year-olds who are the majority of operatives in a group that supposedly has only about 1,000 members and will be replaced quickly. Only Palestinian society – through its politics – can put an end to the gunplay. Perhaps Abbas can find a consensus between Fateh and Hamas about the need to stop the Islamic Jihad, which scoffs at both. But such an agreement is not likely to come before the Palestinian elections.

So, at least until then, Israel will ‘take its security into its own hands,’ as the politicians say. There are those who say the problem is that the separation barrier is not being built as fast as it should so terrorists can simply head south in the West Bank and then cross the Green Line either in the northern Jerusalem area or even further south, to the southern Hebron area, where no fence prevents anyone crossing the Green Line. Moreover, cars with Israeli licenses are waved through the checkpoints-passages by the soldiers, instead of examining each car, something the settlers insist they should not be subjected to. They are still a political force to be reckoned with. True, the army last night evacuated some wildcat outposts near existing West Bank settlements put up by ‘Hilltop Youth’ and some Gush Katif evacuees, right after the Hadera bombing. But Sharon still faces tough opposition from inside the Likud where the settlers carry much weight as ‘pioneers,’ ‘the salt of the earth,’ ‘the best of Israeli society.’ Mostly, the evacuation went smoothly, but near Elon Moreh the settler youths fought the soldiers, assaulting the commander of the force sent to remove them. The commander’s ranks were torn off, and he was later hospitalized for a check up after he was physically attacked by the teens.

Sharon therefore used the occasion of a meeting with the Russian foreign minister, to be heard saying that since the PA ‘totally failed’ to do anything to prevent terror, Israel will take action. It was the first time his voice has been heard in public since the eve of the New Year holidays. He’s saving his voice, perhaps, for a series of meetings with Likud politicians, starting with his ministers, and all the way to the entire faction – with their spouses -- early next week. He still doesn’t have a guarantee that he’ll be able to change the status of his major Likud ally, from Acting Finance Minister Ehud Olmert to Finance Minister Olmert, or to hand out some of Olmert’s other portfolios to at least two Likud MKs who supported the disengagement and Sharon wants to make ministers. And the Right is still working to bring him down.

In short, the lessons of Hadera can only be to brace for more violence between Israelis and Palestinians, as the Israelis and Palestinians both refuse to once and for all face down their extremists. Yes, the disengagement proved that the state of Israel is more powerful than the state of Judea, Samaria and Gaza, otherwise known as Yesha. But the extremists still hold both sides in thrall to ideologies that are irrelevant to the vast majorities in both societies. Sharon still isn’t moving against the wildcat ‘illegal outposts’ let alone against the Kachniks of Hebron. Abbas isn’t moving against at least the Islamic Jihad and the criminal gangs of southern Gaza. And there’s no American cavalry on the horizon. Now, more than ever, Sharon and Abbas should be talking, but there’s no sign of that, either.

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