Simhat Torah, Tuesday, October 25, 2005

The tit for tat strategy is dangerous, because it inevitably leads to escalation, particularly when there’s no dialogue between the sides to try to calm things down. That appears now to be the case, especially since the Israelis cut off all communications with the Palestinians last week, when three settler youths were killed in a drive-by shooting at the Gush Etzion junction with the road to Hebron and Bethlehem.

The only communication between the sides right now is probably through the Americans – the Israelis don’t really listen to anyone else. But the administration is busy with other matters nowadays and as long as the violence doesn’t capture international headlines, it’s hard to believe that Washington will step in to calm things down. Notwithstanding the dramatic letter by Quartet envoy James Wolfensohn to his masters, in which he bemoans Israeli foot dragging and an attitude in Jerusalem ‘as if the disengagement never happened,’ there’s not much reason to expect a flurry of American diplomatic activity here – at least not yet.

But November is said to include a visit to the region by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and the Russian foreign minister is due this week for a meeting with Prime Minister Sharon.

The holiday season in Israel is formally over tonight, with the end of Simhat Torah, which celebrates the giving of the Torah to the Jews and marks the return to the first chapter of Genesis as the reading of the Five Books of Moses, which are read, chapter by chapter, throughout the year, begins anew. Theoretically, people will be back at work tomorrow, but it is only theoretical – many have taken long weekends that began last weekend – and government offices are only back to full-time business next week.

By then, say the Arab affairs analysts on TV and radio, the flare-up with the Islamic Jihad might be over. After all, Palestinian public opinion remains solidly in favor of preserving the tahadiye, the lull in the fighting against Israel. The Islamic Jihad signed onto the tahadiye when it was hammered out in Cairo soon after Abbas was elected as Yasser Arafat’s successor. But unlike Hamas, Islamic Jihad is not running in the Palestinian parliamentary elections, due in January 2006, and it might not be as attentive to public opinion as other factions in Palestinian politics. There is talk about a new round of Palestinian talks in Cairo to consolidate the tahadiye, and presumably Abbas will want to make sure Islamic Jihad remains on board.

But meanwhile, the only meeting currently on the cards in Egypt is between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, set for next week. The Egyptians and Israelis want to resolve some outstanding issues regarding the border crossing from Egypt into Gaza; there’s also a need for Israel to shore up its Negev border with Sinai, which is not fenced and is a smuggler’s route not only into Israel, but to Jordan and Saudi Arabia. There’s also presumably intelligence to be shared about the al Qaida cell in Sinai, which remains elusive despite several Egyptian assaults on their alleged hiding place in the vast wasteland of the peninsula. And as always, the Egyptians will speak for the Palestinians, trying to persuade Mofaz to ease conditions for them in both Gaza, which essentially remains under Israeli lock and key, despite the disengagement, and the West Bank, where Abbas is trying to rein in the armed factions with promises of cooptation into the PA security forces.

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