Blaming the PA security services, Wednesday, October 19, 2005

But speculation about what will happen in the Oval Office and what will get said to the press afterwards is almost purely a matter of the spin of the story, and while spin is important, the facts on the ground are more important.

Thus, while this week’s terror attack on the settlers at the hitchhiking post in Gush Etzion and on the road outside the settlement of Eli drew much of the attention, there was plenty of internal Palestinian violence that points to the failure of the PA security services to do their job. For example, a new armed group – possibly numbering no more than the three or four masked and uniformed men who were seen on a videotape holding two Palestinians they claimed were Israeli collaborators – arose this week, calling themselves the ‘Cavalry of the Storm.’ Even Jibril Rajoub, the head of the PA’s National Security Council admitted that the PA security services were to blame for the anarchy.

And the anarchy plays into the hands of Israel, which continues to argue that for all his politically correct statements, Abbas is no partner because he refuses to bite the bullet and do what must be done – use the estimated 30,000 PA security services troopers to challenge the estimated 3,000 armed men of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as the various cells of the Fateh-related Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.

His reasoning is that getting Hamas to run in the upcoming Palestinian Legislative Council elections is the first step toward disarming the Islamic fundamentalist group that has won its popularity among Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, with social work, charity, schools and infirmaries – and compared to the corruption of the Arafat-installed functionaries of the PA government, Hamas looks clean and corruption free.

But Hamas not only has an armed wing, it has a platform that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel – and the PA – to replace the government between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River with a Waqf, an Islamic Holy Trust, which would run the country according to a strict interpretation of the sharia, Islamic law.

Abbas knows this as well as any Israeli – and so do the Americans, who have already warned Israel against steps that undermine Abbas’ authority and popularity among Palestinians. The Israelis meanwhile are doing just that – reinstalling dozens if not hundreds of checkpoints that hinder Palestinian movement throughout the West Bank, turning Palestinian cars away from highways used by settlers in the territory, and in general cracking down on suspected members of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and anyone else they suspect of supporting terrorism. That includes dozens of Hamas politicians who have been arrested in recent weeks.

Some Israeli predictions are that the Americans will tell Israel to stop hindering Hamas participation in the elections. Other predictions are the Americans will tell the PA Hamas cannot be allowed to participate in the elections. Either way, the elections will be tainted for the Palestinians if the rules are seen as being somehow dictated by either Washington or Jerusalem and they will be tainted for the Israelis if Hamas participates – and doesn’t disarm.

Meanwhile, the holiday season in Israel continues. The press has no choice but to report on the Abbas trip to Washington, but it’s avian flu and how to keep the kids occupied during the month of holidays that is filling the papers and the airwaves. The opening of Saddam Hussein’s trial was of interest of course, but more as a curiosity than an historic event. Thus, both Yedioth and Maariv headlined the trial this morning, but they gave twice as much space to the bird flu hysteria than to the events in Iraq. Abbas’ trip in both papers got less coverage than how the first rain of the season is expected to disrupt scheduled holiday events like concerts, festivals, and park activities.

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