Abbas’ goal, Tuesday, October 18, 2005

As predictable as the terrorist shootings on Sunday and the Israeli crackdown on the Palestinian public in the West Bank, was the U.S. State Department’s reaction on Monday to the Israeli crackdown and the Palestinian Authority’s refusal to crack down on the armed gangs that have the power to halt the political process at will.

State called for the Israelis to ease the plight of the Palestinians instead of making things more difficult for them, and called on the PA to fight terror. The army has closed West Bank highways to Palestinian drivers, except approved bus service, reinstated roadblocks and checkpoints at dozens of locations, and most dangerously, cut off all direct communications with the Palestinians.

But as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said yesterday, after meeting with PA President Mahmoud Abbas, such disconnections between the Israelis and Palestinians have happened in the past, and communications inevitably resumes – there’s simply no choice.

Thus, the meeting between Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Abbas, postponed from last week to sometime in early November has been canceled by the Israelis in the wake of the shootings that killed three young settlers, but in the wake of the meeting slated for Thursday between Abbas and President Bush it is difficult to believe that Sharon and Abbas will not meet in the weeks ahead. There is too much on the agenda between them that must be discussed.

Abbas has been heading to Washington for days, visiting Arab and European capitals to shore up support for his policies, which are to ‘mainstream’ the armed factions into Palestinian politics, forcing the Hamas, for example, to shelve its weapons once it is part of the Palestinian Legislative Council, which will be elected anew in January.

The Israelis aren’t buying it as an option, however, arguing that no state can allow private armed militias – especially militias that have the goal of replacing the ruling government – to exist parallel to the legitimate armed forces of that government. They have a point, except that it exists in a vacuum – they know very well that if Abbas were to turn the PA’s armed forces against Hamas’ military wing, or even against the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the Fateh’s military wing, it could mean civil war for the Palestinians. So, the Israelis are warning the PA against allowing the Hamas to run for election as long as it remains armed, with barely concealed threats about obstructing the January elections.

Complicating matters is the ambiguity of the Hamas position, which seems to be backing away from running in the PLC elections. This week, all the Palestinian political parties – except Hamas – promised in a charter to respect the results of the upcoming vote.

It was unclear if Hamas refused to sign on to that charter because it is uncertain about running or because it does not plan to accept the results. One thing is certain, however, Hamas has much less popular support, say Palestinian polls, than Western and Arab reporters like to attribute to it. The latest Bir Zeit University polls show Fateh winning 46 percent of the vote and Hamas winning only 23 percent if it were held last week. Hamas obviously does not want to go to elections and find itself a minority opposition with little power to effect changes. And it knows that the same polls show that the tide of Palestinian public opinion has shifted against the ‘armed resistance’ that Hamas so effusively promotes as the way to get rid of the Israeli occupation.

Abbas will meet Bush on Thursday, and presumably explain that he is doing everything short of civil war to end terrorism. Bush is not a man of nuance, of course, and will encourage Abbas to do more – but he’ll also show support for the Abbas regime, probably promising more money as well as various forms of technical support, possibly including support for the security services that goes beyond the stationing of Gen. William Ward in the territories as an overseer of the slow reformation process underway in the Palestinian security forces.

Still, it is the gunmen with their Kalashnikovs and home made bombs who have the initiative, despite all the Israeli bravado about how the IDF, Shin Bet and police are effectively hampering terror by overnight arrests and ‘pinpoint prevention.’ Until they are regurgitated by the general Palestinian public, which remains largely afraid of the men with the guns, no military force, whether Israeli or Palestinian, will be able to rout them. That seems to be Abbas’ goal, but it will probably take more than an election to achieve it.

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