Predictable consequences, Monday, October 17, 2005

It's been a little less than two months since the evacuation of Gaza, and since the Israeli departure, despite rising opposition to 'the armed intifada' in Palestinian public opinion, the leaders of the Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the AL Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which is affiliated with the ruling Fateh party, have all said that their ceasefire covers Gaza, not the West Bank, and that the same methods that they used to expel Israel from Gaza will be used in the West Bank.

In other words, for every Israeli assault on them, they will retaliate, and since the evacuation of Gaza, there have been plenty of Israeli moves against West Bank militants. Some 700 have been arrested, and some 15 have been killed resisting arrest – or in 'pinpoint preventions,' meaning assassinations of 'ticking bombs,' meaning people on their way to a terror attack. One such militant, an Islamic Jihad activist, was killed just an hour after the drive-by shootings, in Jenin.

The two drive-by shootings yesterday immediately resulted in Israel rolling back many of the 'goodwill gestures' it has tried out in the West Bank in recent months. The IDF is once again banning private Palestinian cars from using main highways, roadblocks made of dirt ramparts are going back up at the entrances and exits from villages in the Hebron and Bethlehem area, much stricter rules are being applied concerning Palestinian transportation in general, and specifically to Israeli industrial zones in the West Bank where several thousand Palestinians work.

Furthermore, plans to one again hand Bethlehem back to Palestinian security control in time for Christmas have been shelved, as have plans for eventually handing over security control in other cities.

But perhaps most damaging was the announcement made by Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz that he is suspending communications between IDF officers and their Palestinian counterparts. That communication was seen as critical to the regaining of mutual trust and since the disengagement process from Gaza and the northern West Bank began, that communication had been vital to maintaining the relative quiet that has ensued in both Gaza and the West Bank.

Predictably, the Right in Israel denounced the government and blamed the terror attacks yesterday on the Gaza withdrawal, saying it had filled the sails of the terrorists. On the Left, critics called the Israeli crackdown in the West Bank a move that plays right into the hands of the terrorists. In the Center, there was Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's silence, and some stammering and stuttering about Israel doing what it has to do to provide every Israeli everywhere – even if they live in 'illegal outposts' – with total security.

Just as predictably, the Palestinian Authority denounced the drive-by murders as an attack on the PA and as an effort to undermine the visit to the White House later this week bv Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas continues to be described by the Israeli Center as 'well-meaning but weak' – even though polls show that he and his policies are very popular among Palestinians, much more popular, for example, than President Bush among Americans. The Palestinians complain that the real Israeli intention by describing him as such is to say, in effect, 'there is no Palestinian partner' for political dialogue, a way to avoid the difficult decisions that have to be made to at the very least give up the settlements east of the route of the 'separation fence,' for example.

In any case, today is the eve of another one of the New Year holidays – Sukkot -- and except for the headlines about the terror attacks yesterday, the press is full of holiday material: celebrity interviews, travel and cooking tips, anything and everything except news and analysis about Israeli or regional politics. Escapism – particularly from the Palestinian issue – is the order of the day, and will continue as such through next week, when the last of the New Year's month holidays, Simhat Torah, takes place.

Only after the holidays, when the Knesset resumes its activities – and the Labor Party holds its primaries for leadership (on November 9) – will the press and public resume paying attention to problems. Unless, of course, as some are predicting, the drive-by shootings yesterday are the first signs of a new, 'third intifada,' or as others predict, militants among the settlers decide to take vigilante action. Already yesterday there was arson reported in some Arab-owned Hebron shops near the Jewish quarter, which is populated by some of the most militant of the settlers.

And with the olive harvest underway in the West Bank, there will no doubt be cases of settlers harassing Palestinians in their olive groves, as has been the case for the last two decades. The army promises that it will protect Palestinian olive harvesters. But it is also closing many roads that lead to olive groves. It's too soon to say that the shootings yesterday signal a new intifada – but there's no doubt, as almost all the press says today, that Palestinians will pay a price for the shootings, making more likely more Palestinian attacks against Israelis. In short, the cycle of violence continues as tragically as usual.

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